This week in Memphis, the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind will mark the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The players who finish in the top 70 of the FedEx Cup standings following the Wyndham Championship are eligible to compete in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which are in their second year of existence. In the playoffs, FedEx Cup points are tripled, with the FedEx St. Jude Championship and BMW Championship winners receiving 2,000 points each.
Since Scottie Scheffler leads second-place Xander Schauffele by nearly 2,000 points heading into the playoffs, the players following him will need every point they can get. Victor Perez, the last player in the playoffs, is trailed by Scheffler, the Olympic gold medallist, by more than 5,300 points.
The playoff field will drop from seventy to fifty players following this week’s competition. Like Cam Davis and Hideki Matsuyama in 2023, the players currently outside the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings will be looking to battle their way to the BMW Championship with strong play this week. Both past FedEx St. Jude Championship winner Will Zalatoris and current FedEx Cup leader Jake Knapp, who is ranked 50th, appear particularly vulnerable to losing their positions in the top 50. Zalatoris needs to get over his slump that has followed him since placing in the top 10 at the Masters. Since then, he has not placed among the top 40 in any competition. Knapp has not increased
After a thrilling finish to win the Wyndham Championship, Aaron Rai will be looking to make it two in a row this week. For all of the bookmakers out there, Rai won at a ratio of 35 to 1, gaining more than 10 strokes from ball striking. Max Greyserman’s final-round quadruple bogey gave Rai the advantage, but Rai still needed to play perfect golf to win. Rai does not have to go all the way back to find motivation in order to emulate Lucas Glover’s 2023 feat of winning both the FedEx St. Jude Championship and the Wyndham Championship.
Ball hitting is the only way to win at TPC Southwind. The tiny greens will reward players who lead the field close to the hole on approach shots, but the doglegs and water in play will have players pay care from the tee. Gained strokes from scrambling and the green will also be important metrics because winning at TPC Southwind will require players to overcome some difficult situations.
Course information
Course: TPC Southwind — Memphis
Designer: Ron Prichard, with help from Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,244 yards
Average green size: 4,300 square feet
Features: The golf course has zoysia tee boxes and fairways, Bermuda greens and rough, and numerous holes with water play. Since 2005, more balls have struck the water at TPC Southwind than at TPC Sawgrass. Ball strikers benefit from the compact greens and precise targets off the tee. The victor has won in a playoff and shot 15-under par the previous two years.
Champions as of late: 2023 Glover Lucas, 2022 Zalatoris Will, 2021 2020 Tony Finau Patrick Reed, 2018; Dustin Johnson, 2019 DeChambeau, Bryson (2017) Dustin Johnson; Patrick Reed, 2016
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds
All odds from BetMGM.
Betting slip
Over the years, Xander Schauffele (+800) has had difficulty at TPC Southwind. The last three times he teed it up here, he lost more than 1.3 strokes off the tee. His 2020 T6 finish was his best result. However, this season, Schauffele has altered the story that has been told about his career. He is changed as a person and a golfer. With the way Schauffele has been stumbling, I anticipate him to be competitive this week. He is been focused the entire season, and a victory to begin the postseason would set up an exciting competition between him and Scheffler for the FedExCup title.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) performed admirably at the Olympics, but he was once again forced to watch a rival take first place. The gold medal was not lost by Fleetwood. Scheffler emerged victorious after a breathtaking final day of competition. During the Olympics, Fleetwood improved his approach and short game by more than 6.6 strokes. In his last four visits at TPC Southwind, he has finished in the top four twice. Last year, he tied for third with his short game and improved his ball-striking by nearly four strokes.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) improved all round on his road to an Olympic bronze medal. In France, he improved his short game and ball-striking by more than 5.8 strokes. Matsuyama has finished in the top 20 three times in a row at TPC Southwind. In his last two visits, he has improved his round-the-green average by more than three strokes.
Although Davis Thompson (+7000) has never played at TPC Southwind, his style of play looks to work well here. He would have gained strokes all week if he had not struggled with his irons on Sunday at the Wyndham Championship. Despite the challenging circumstances, he was still able to hold on for a T12. In five out of the last six tournaments, he has improved his short game by over 3.8 strokes, and in five of those events, he has improved his game by over 2 strokes off the tee.
Eric Cole (+12500) has finished in the top seven of three of his previous five tournaments, indicating that he is hot right now. In four of his past five events, he has improved his approach score by more than 3.2 strokes. In seven consecutive tournaments, he has improved his short game by more than two strokes. Last year, he finished T31 here as his putter prevented him from competing.
DFS plays
Xander Schauffele ($11,400) See above.
With a wobbly putter, Collin Morikawa ($10,000) had trouble at the Olympics. On the greens, he lost more than 5.7 strokes, while on the approach, he gained more than 7.3. This week, I think Morikawa will make up ground on the greens, and his ball-striking ability is quite important because he has improved his approach score by more than 6.3 strokes in the last two tournaments. He is had two straight trips when he is gained strokes all over the course.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800) See above.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300) See above.
After playing TPC Southwind seven times, Corey Conners ($9,100) has become an expert putter. In five consecutive visits to TPC Southwind, he has improved his game by more than two strokes off the tee; last year, he finished in a T6. In the last seven events, he has improved his short game and gained strokes around the green.
Billy Horschel ($8,500) has been playing well lately, having tied for seventh place in the Wyndham Championship and finished second at the Open Championship. In every tournament, he improved his approach game by more than 4 strokes and his putter play by more than 2.4 strokes. In his forty-two rounds of golf at TPC Southwind, he is improving by nearly one stroke relative to the field. In his last eight visits here, he has four top nines.
In addition to missing out on playing one of his favorite golf courses last season, Justin Thomas ($8,400) was not able to make it to the playoffs. When Thomas is at his best, he has outstanding short game to compensate for misses, and he is sharp with the irons. These two aspects of his game have been severely tested lately by his putting, but this course, with its comparatively simple greens, might be just what he needs to regain some confidence. He took first place here in 2020, and he has improved his approach on each visit to TPC Southwind.
Aaron Rai ($8,200) recently won a match in which he dominated the entire bag. His putting practice may have driven some people crazy, but it was effective for him. In his first visit to TPC Southwind, he has not been able to improve on his T12, but this week I think that will change. When it comes to the playoffs, there is no time for a hangover from a victory.
After coming second in Scotland and T10 at the Open Championship, Adam Scott ($7,700) had a great trip to the Scottish Open and the Open Championship. In each of those competitions, he improved his approach score by more than 2.5 strokes, and on his most recent visit to TPC Southwind, he placed T5.
Brian Harman ($7,600) was a favorite at the Wyndham Championship last week, but he had a lot of trouble. At TPC Southwind, he has finished in the top six twice, and in each visit, he has improved his stroke count off the tee. Given last week’s events, I believe that people will be less interested in Harman.
Davis Thompson ($7,400) See above.
Eric Cole ($6,700) See above.
In his last five tournaments, Ben Griffin ($6,600) has finished in the top seven twice. Last year, he gained almost a stroke on approach and with his short game, finishing T24 here. He improved his approach last week by more than 8 strokes, which is exactly the form you want going into the playoffs.
One and done
Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Reference this spreadsheet tracking who we have used.
Standings
Dennis Esser: $10,088,478
Brody Miller: $8,867,969.16
Hugh Kellenberger: $8,513,527.63
Kellenberger: I am playing like Rory McIlroy because I am out of time and names to make this last push and move up the leaderboard. He has somewhat inconsistent records at TPC Southwind, and I do not really like the course fit there, but he has the biggest ceiling and highest floor of any player I still have on my roster.
Miller: Patrick Cantlay, the epitome of stability, has not been selected yet because of his erratic first few months. Cantlay, nevertheless, has unexpectedly finished T3 at Pinehurst, T5 at Travelers, and T25 at the Open. Oh, and Cantlay, who made it to a playoff in Memphis the previous year, is the one that thrives the most in the high-stakes FedEx events.
Esser: I am free to play him this week at a golf course that he has enjoyed over the years because both of my opponents have already fired their Billy Horschel shots. I am cursing myself for not recognizing sooner that one of my one-and-dones changed their playoff system this season to double the money in the postseason.
(Photo of Scottie Scheffler: Keyur Khamar / PGA Tour via Getty Images)
