NEW YORK The owner of the New York Mets, Steve Cohen, repeatedly stated, “We have a lot of games remaining,” while speaking to reporters in London last week. It was evident that Cohen was not interested in talking about the trade deadline. There are exactly ninety-nine games remaining for the Mets. Despite appearing to be anything but a playoff team through the first few months of the season, they still have time, at least in theory, to turn things around because they play in the mediocre National League.
The task facing the Mets is to seize the chance, which entails winning games rapidly. If not, time passes. Although July 30 is the trade deadline, teams actually begin evaluating their alternatives earlier.
The Mets are perhaps the most intriguing team this trade deadline season, under the direction of new president of baseball operations David Stearns. This is due to the fact that they have a large and desirable list of trade candidates with star first baseman Pete Alonso and several other players whose contracts are about to expire. You have quite the situation to watch when you combine Stearns’ expertise, ingenuity, and acumen with Cohen’s capacity for financial absorption.
Here’s a summary of what to watch out for in the upcoming weeks:
Can the Mets avoid a sell-off (and what would an alternative look like)?
The Mets have an opportunity that they do not deserve based on their play thus far this season. However, that is the reality of the National League, where six postseason slots are up for grabs and only five teams have winning records. The Mets were only 3.5 games short of a wild-card berth going into Tuesday. They are getting healthier and have been playing better lately, particularly offensively now that catcher Francisco Alvarez is back in the lineup.
Would a respectable chance of making the playoffs be sufficient to prevent a sale? Perhaps not. The Mets are still more likely to lose out, and they have not proven they can play quality baseball for a long enough period of time.
However, let us assume for the sake of this exercise that the Mets go on a run. What would happen next? In light of the club’s long-term objectives and current performance, it is difficult to imagine it giving up much of its farm system. The Mets might trade out of their starting rotation in a hybrid position, which would involve neither buying nor selling completely. They still have Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Christian Scott, and Jose Butto as starting alternatives (as well as Kodai Senga, if he returns at some time in the second half) if they move either Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, or a combination of them.
If the Mets sell, how deep can it go and what can they get back?
Following discussions with league evaluators, the following is a list of Mets trade candidates that teams would likely be interested in: Luis Severino (SP), Jose Quintana (SP), Alonso, J.D. Martinez (DH), Jeff McNeil (2B), Jake Diekman (RP), Drew Smith (RP), Reed Garrett (RP), Sean Reid-Foley (RP), Adam Ottavino (RP), Harrison Bader (OF), Starling Marte (OF), and Sean Manaea (SP). That is quite a bit. And those were only somewhat obvious options; there might be more. Alonso, Martinez, Severino, Quintana, Bader, Smith, and Ottavino are among the players whose contracts are about to expire.
Alonso, Severino, Martinez, and Bader are the players on expiring agreements according to a few of seasoned evaluators; the order mostly relies on need. There should be considerable interest in the Mets’ starters and relievers because almost every rival team is trying to improve their pitching.
Sean Manaea could be on the block as the Mets get closer to the trade deadline. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
The choices that Manaea (player option) and Diekman (vesting options) have, according to evaluators, complicate transactions. One explanation for this is that, should Manaea have a player option, he might decide to remain with the team that acquired him even if he were to suffer an injury in 2024 (and so have health issues into 2025).
Although opposing evaluators think that New York would have to pay down portions of Marte and McNeil’s salaries, theoretically, the Mets could move both players. The Mets acquired Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Mark Canha in deals that same year. Due to their differing offensive performances this season, Marte and McNeil are more appealing than one other; nevertheless, both players have defensive difficulties.
Contrary to former years, the Mets now require more top-tier position-player prospects. Recently, they have demonstrated an improved ability to develop pitchers. Additionally, a few promising position players have been sidelined for a considerable amount of the season due to injuries. Teams usually aim to acquire the top prospects available when it comes to prospect returns, but it would not be shocking if the Mets tried to get more athletic, middle-of-the-road players.
What about Alonso?
The main Mets narrative is about Alonso’s future. That will go on regardless of how they perform over the course of the next month and a half.
The best slugger available on the trade market would be Alonso. For the Mets, he is also a homegrown star. The Mets undoubtedly value him more than any other team.However, he is 29 years old in a position where sluggers do not usually age well. The case is made very strong by those dynamics.
At the end of the season, Alonso will be a free agent, but he will also be paid $20.5 million in 2024. That is still a good sum of money for some clubs with more limited funds, particularly in the second part of the season.It would be fascinating to watch whether the Mets reduce Alonso’s contract in order to obtain a higher return if they decide to make him available. An evaluator recommended that the Mets investigate into moving Alonso, as allowing him to join with another team in free agency would only net them a fourth-round selection pick.The Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, and a few more clubs are among the speculative group of likely suitors if the Mets make him available. Given the number of teams still in the running for the playoffs, it is difficult to predict a potential return at this time.
(Top photo of Pete Alonso: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
