At this point, a blind monkey could pick games better than me.
But, alas, there are no blind monkeys available on short notice.
We actually had a good shot at a winning week but Greg Zuerlein missed two field goals inside of 45 yards and the New York Jets didn’t cover by half of a point.
That game capped off a crazy week where road favorites went 9-0 straight up and against the spread. Sportsbooks usually call those sucker bets, but the wise guys took a beating last week. I am happy for all the suckers out there. Drinks on you.
There are five road favorites this week, and there would be six if the Detroit Lions hadn’t lost pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson for the season. They are coming off a dominant rout of the Dallas Cowboys but opened as 1.5-point underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings, and it’s up to 2.5.
The Lions are a passionate, talented team that shouldn’t have a hangover because they will be playing for their fallen teammate. I always like to tip my cap to all the under-appreciated running backs in the league, and David Montgomery might be the most unsung. He is averaging 4.7 yards a pop and has six touchdowns in five games.
“I’ve told him before, I just wish I could’ve played with him,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters. “Because he’s inspiring to watch. He refuses to go down and he’s violent in everything he does.”
“He creates a ripple effect. Knows how to transfer his energy positively to the team.”
So, there’s one winner. Let’s see if we can pick nine more and start our own ripple effect.
Last week’s record: 7-7 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.
Season record: 34-56-2 against the spread, 9-19-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Road favorites are 12-0 straight up and against the spread the last two weeks, reversing an early-season trend where underdogs were not only covering but winning games straight up. And here we are with another road favorite. We’re not terribly high on Spencer Rattler, but the Saints rookie QB wasn’t that terrible against the Buccaneers last week. The slightly overrated Broncos defense would be a decent test but they lost Pat Surtain II to a concussion last week and were bad without him, yielding a season-low -0.18 EPA per pass play to the Chargers. He was ruled out for this game. We’re not high on Broncos QB Bo Nix either, so give us the anti-suckers home underdogs for now.
The pick: Saints
The Jaguars were all set to fire coach Doug Pederson like all terrible teams do when they leave London. But they remembered they were staying another week, so they postponed that for a while. We’re just guessing that that’s how that went, and the three or four Pederson defenders out there would tell you that Jaguars receivers dropped four touchdowns in the ugly loss to the Bears last week. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. leads the league in maximum speed reached during a play for receivers at 22.15 mph, but his four drops rank 54th among 59 qualified WRs. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. may miss this game, which is good because Tank Bigsby is better. Laying 5.5 points with the Jaguars and their lame-duck coach is absurd until you consider that they have been in London all week. Body clocks, baby.
The pick: Jaguars
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Watching the Seahawks last week, it hit me that Geno Smith is really good against bad teams, and not so hot against good teams. And it’s not entirely his fault. Right tackle Stone Forsythe ranks second worst among all qualified offensive linemen (minimum 100 pass rush snaps) with a 12.9 percent pressure rate. That went up to 18.9 percent in the loss to the 49ers. Luckily, the Falcons count alligators before they rush the passer. They rank last in sacks (five) and sacks per pressure rate at 8.2 percent. They’re 28th in pressure percentage at 28.5 percent, with their best guy, Matthew Judon, coming in at 107th with a 9.1 percent pressure rate. Seattle should also be able to run the ball. The Seahawks have lost three straight but are only 3-point dogs on the road against a 4-2 Falcons team. Hmmmm.
The pick: Seahawks
Geno Smith won’t be under pressure against the Falcons, which should lead to success. (Joe Nicholson / Imagn Images)
I feel like the Browns, Jaguars and Raiders are stealing the Titans’ thunder. They have something special going, as last week Calvin Ridley became the first receiver in 12 years to have no catches on eight (or more) targets. He was pretty upset after the game. Just like coach Brian Callahan, who regrets dumping Malik Wills, has been all season. Will Levis ranks last in EPA per dropback rate (-0.31) and passer rating (70.7). This would be a good spot for a normal team, as the Bills are coming off an emotional win over a hated team and are on a short week, but the Titans are not normal. Their defense can stop the run, but a beat-up secondary is a nice welcome gift for new No. 1 Bills receiver Amari Cooper.
The pick: Bills
The Bengals’ march to the playoffs from 1-4 got off to a slow start last week as Joe Burrow was under a lot of pressure and they barely got past the Giants (they did somehow cover the spread). Everyone and their grandma is betting the Bengals again this week, forgetting that the Browns will pressure Burrow as well and that they kind own him in Cleveland. Burrow is 0-4 (by an average score of 28-16) in his four trips here. So, plug your nose and take the points with Deshaun Watson, the second-worst Browns quarterback in EPA per dropback rate (-0.26) in the last 25 years. (If you guessed Derek Anderson was the worst, you need to get out more.) The good news is the Browns got their tackles back last week and Nick Chubb this week. Heck, this might be a best bet.
The pick: Browns
The game of the week, with two of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Jordan Love finally looked like he did last season, as his 0.51 EPA per dropback rate and 16.2 total QB EPA were second-best in the league last week. C.J. Stroud has the Texans at 5-1 despite being without star RB Joe Mixon and WR Nico Collins for stretches and despite his team being the most penalized in the league. This one will come down to the run game, however. The Packers should be able to contain Mixon, while the Texans are not great at stopping the run, so Josh Jacobs may finally get his first Lambeau Leap. Or two.
The pick: Packers
Tua Tagovailoa is eligible to return next week, though beyond Mike McDaniel saying he’s expected to play this season, his timeline remains unclear. If he happens to return next week, is it possible the Dolphins may survive some of the worst QB play ever in his place and emerge 3-3? Yeah, it’s possible. The Colts defense has a lot of walking wounded and can’t stop the pass or the run, and Dolphins RB De’Von Achane may be back from a concussion coming off a bye week. The Colts offense will probably be without RB Jonathan Taylor another week, while it looks like QB Anthony Richardson will be back. Which is not ideal, because the Joe Flacco–Josh Downs combination was cooking for a couple of weeks. We’re going to take the cheese and take the Dolphins and the points.
The pick: Dolphins
Why the Lions might be a bad pick: Hutchinson was a menace and the Vikings have a really good offensive line. So Sam Darnold may have plenty of time to give this crazy MVP thing some legs. The Lions should still be able to stop the run. Why we think we’re OK with the Lions: Jared Goff has been on fire of late. His EPA per dropback (0.68), passer rating (157.5), completion percentage (83.7), yards per attempt (14.1) and first downs per attempt (55.8 percent) are all tops in the league since Week 4. And while Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to throw blitzes and exotic coverages at quarterbacks, Goff has completed 71 percent of his passes (at 12 yards an attempt) against blitzes this season.
The pick: Lions
The Saquan Barkley revenge game. Giants fans probably wouldn’t mind seeing him going off against his old team, as he should never have been allowed to leave town. But … the Giants actually have a pretty good run defense. And the Nick Sirianni-Jalen Hurts dynamic is still definitely off, as the Eagles struggled to score last week even with stud receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back. Sirianni, of course, mocked Eagles fans from the sidelines after the 4-point win over a lost Browns franchise handcuffed to a terrible, expensive quarterback. The best player on the field might be Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers, who looks like he will be back from a two-week concussion. Ideally, Daniel Jones can avoid too many mistakes, as he will be under some duress — the Giants are worst in the league at sacks allowed (99) since the start of the 2023 season and have allowed the fourth-most pressures this season with 87. If Jones does avoid mistakes, the Giants keep it close and Hurts falls to 7-16 against the spread as a road favorite.
The pick: Giants
The Giants should’ve never allowed Saquon Barkley to leave town. (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)
Cooper Kupp is likely back for the Rams this week while Davante Adams left the Raiders in body after leaving them in spirit two and a half weeks ago. So, lock and load on the Rams? In the words of the great Lee Corso (who we hope is feeling better), “Not so fast, my friend.” I mean, the Rams still kind of stink. They would be 0-5 if not for a miraculous finish against the 49ers. Their run defense is so bad that even the Raiders (79.5 yards per game) may be able to run the ball. OK, we went too far. The reason we think the Raiders will keep it close is because coach Antonio Pierce should have his team fired up — in front of a lot of Raiders fans — as the Raiders feel Adams quit on them and there is finally some closure with the trade happening. We’re probably wrong but …
The pick: Raiders
The Panthers are like that last taquito spinning on the 7-Eleven rotisserie late at night on a long road trip. You’re starving and while you know it’s not going to end well, how do you turn down that much hot value? The Panthers have lost three in a row and gotten blown out in four of their six games, but the inflated point spreads and Chuba Hubbard’s cool name always suck me back in. This week, they’re getting 8 points even though the Commanders are coming off a tough loss to the crosstown Ravens and can’t possibly be worried about the Panthers. And Washington can’t stop the run (Chuba!) and has a bad secondary. The Panthers defense might be worse though. … Tell you wait, I am going to take the Commanders so you can do the opposite and win when Andy Dalton finally gets a backdoor cover.
The pick: Commanders
The Super Bowl rematch will have no Christian McCaffrey, and while Jordan Mason should make it back from his shoulder injury, our people in Santa Clara say he will likely have a limited workload. That’s OK if you think the 49ers avenge their loss, because the Chiefs defense has been good and not great this year, and should have trouble containing Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle. As for the Chiefs, they are somehow undefeated despite getting Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster off the street to fill key roles. But the 49ers are the best defense the Chiefs have played, with Fred Warner ranking No. 1 in defensive production rating among all linebackers with one sack, a league-high four forced fumbles, five pass breakups, two interceptions and a touchdown. When a 3-3 team is favored over an undefeated one, there is a reason.
The pick: 49ers
Mike Tomlin got a freebie last week when the Raiders had no Davante Adams and no Jakobi Meyers and no chance in the passing game. But Adams is on the Jets now, and the suspect Steelers pass defense (7.3 yards per attempt, 23 touchdowns allowed) will have to deal with Adams, Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson — maybe the biggest winner in the trade because he can now beat up on No. 2 cornerbacks. The 2-4 Jets have to win this game, and while we get the Steelers switch at quarterback (Russell Wilson will be able to hit open receivers), they will miss Justin Fields’ running. The odds of the tackle-seeking Najee Harris having two good games in a row are astronomical. I was trying to fade all of the road favorites this week, but Adams and Rodgers are just too cute together.
The pick: Jets
The Ravens have won four straight (and covered all four) after losing their first two games, as it just took a little bit to get ol’ man Derrick Henry rolling. More under the radar is the Buccaneers would be riding a three-game winning streak if not for a late fumble against the Falcons, and they’re 4-1 when my guy Vita Vea plays. Vea should clog some holes for Henry and Lamar Jackson. The Buccaneers have had some surprising success running the ball — millions of fantasy football geeks yelled out, “Who the eff is Sean Tucker?” at the same time last week — but the Ravens can still stop the run. Their secondary, however, is mediocre, and Baker Mayfield will have some success, enough for at least a 3-point loss.
The pick: Buccaneers
Good luck picking a Cardinals game. They have beaten the 49ers straight up and routed the Rams, and also lost to the Commanders and Packers by a combined 49 points. Kyler Murray is as maddening as ever, with his brilliant play mixed in with spurts of yawning. The Cardinals might be without rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion), but it’s not like Murray throws him the ball anyway. The Cardinals defense is not good, and Justin Herbert finally looked like Justin Herbert last week. A big part of that is both of his tackles are rolling now. Rashawn Slater is the fourth-best left tackle with a 2.9 percent pressure rate, while Joe Alt ranks fifth best among right tackles with a 3.5 percent rate. There is absolutely no reason to pick the Cardinals here besides them being at home …
The pick: Cardinals
Best bets: We’re back on our Seahawks, as we’re not buying the Falcons. We also have a couple of home underdogs in the Giants and the Buccaneers against the Eagles and Ravens, respectively. The 49ers over the Chiefs and the Lions taking care of business against the Vikings make it 5-0.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Browns (+5.5, +200 on the money line) have beaten Joe Burrow all four times in Cleveland. Just saying,
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
(Top photo of David Montgomery: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)
