It’s time to answer a second batch of questions for our latest Blue Jays mailbag. If you missed it, part one can be found here.
Do you think the Jays are committed to bringing John Schneider back to manage? Any chance they’d pursue Skip Schumaker? — Steve C.
The Blue Jays have confirmed Schneider is coming back, and I don’t expect the club to reverse course. It was also something of an open secret within baseball that Schumaker would be leaving the Miami Marlins at the end of the season, so the Blue Jays would have likely known he would be available, and they still re-committed to Schneider, who is signed through the 2025 season with a team option for 2026.
What do you think the Blue Jays can expect from Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos next season? Will age finally catch up with them? — Iain G.
This is a reasonable question. Including relievers, the Blue Jays had the fifth-oldest pitching staff in 2024, with an average age of 30.5 years old. Next season, Gausman will be 34, Bassitt 36 and Berríos 31.
A reason for optimism is this trio has remained durable and part of a pitcher’s performance is remaining healthy. Gausman, Bassitt and Berríos each made at least 30 starts for the third straight season. There are also positives to take from the fact both Gausman and Berríos performed better in the second half compared to the first, so it wasn’t like fatigue was a major factor (though it should be noted the Blue Jays worked to get their starters extra days of rest when possible down the stretch).
In terms of performance ahead, I looked at FanGraphs ZiPS three-year projections, which haven’t been updated following the season, but still offer an idea of future performance.
The model was bullish on Gausman, predicting the right-hander would still post a sub-3.00 ERA during the 2025 season, though his strikeouts will continue to trend down. Berríos is projected for a 4.23 ERA in 28 starts, but it should be noted he outperformed his ZiPS projection this season (4.12 ERA in 30 starts).
Bassitt could be the most concerning because he’s the oldest and had the worst ERA of all three this season. His second-half performance (5.23 ERA) trailed his first-half (3.52 ERA), and he finished with a 4.16 ERA, the highest of any season in which he’s made more than five starts. ZiPS projects Bassitt to have a 4.10 ERA in 24 starts in 2025, but he underperformed his projected performance this season (3.84 ERA).
If there is a silver lining, it’s that Bassitt doesn’t rely on velocity or strikeouts to get outs so he should, in theory, age more gracefully on the mound, compared to a flamethrower. But, the right-hander will need to make adjustments in the offseason to finish his three-year contract with the Blue Jays strong.
What is Spencer Horwitz’s future with the Jays? The discourse around him seems split: either he’s a platoon player who can back up first base and take a turn at DH and is worth a bench spot (and if he’s starting then heaven help us), or he’s played himself into one of the Jays’ primary trade chips and the team should sell high. Assuming the Jays bring in a couple of bats to play left field and first base or third base, can Horwitz stick as the Jays’ full-time DH in 2025? — Joshua R.
Horwitz finished with a .790 OPS in 97 games, second on the Blue Jays among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and he made the most of a prime opportunity to play nearly every day. What was especially notable is after Horwitz’s hot start in June (.869 OPS), he hit a bit of a lull in July (.693 OPS) but was able to adjust and finished the season strong in August and September (.814 OPS).
In terms of a defensive position, the Blue Jays view him primarily as a first baseman, but his splits against right-handers (.864 OPS) and left-handers (.522 OPS) probably limit his ability to play every day — unless he makes an adjustment against lefties — and would best position him as a left-handed bench piece who can fill in at first and DH. As for the hole at DH, the Blue Jays view that as a spot they could seek an upgrade, so I think they’d initially set their sights on an external candidate. Someone like Tyler O’Neill could be a fit, and he can also play some outfield.
Spencer Horwitz leads all rookies in AVG (.282) and OBP (.366)
Goodnight, #BlueJays Fans pic.twitter.com/ZIFSNmUaZc
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 10, 2024
Who would you target in free agency — Teoscar Hernández or Pete Alonso? — Dan. P
Hernández and Alonso will be two of the best power bats available this winter, and both are helping their stocks with strong postseasons.
Hernández is a better fit from a position standpoint, since the Blue Jays have more of a hole in the outfield, although Hernández is a below-average defender. If the Blue Jays went after a first baseman like Alonso, they’d likely have to move Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third base. It’s a scenario the team is open to if Guerrero wanted to do it (which he probably would) but it seems unlikely that’s their top choice considering how comfortable Guerrero has grown at first base. So, Hernández — or another outfielder — is a smoother fit.
The offence is in a weird spot. It feels like they have a lot of good prospects now, but they need to acquire a free agent or trade for another big bat if they want to have an above-average offence next season. So how would you rank the following both on likely 2025 contributions and trade value — Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, Nathan Lukes and Jonatan Clase? — John A.
The Blue Jays like what they saw from Wagner and Jimenez, and it’s possible the pair form a platoon next season at second base.
Coming off his 80-game suspension for PEDs, Martinez’s trade value took a hit since there will be questions about his performance, so the Blue Jays are better off seeing what they have than selling low. He still ranks as their top hitting prospect, but the Blue Jays need to see him make strides defensively at second and third base to earn a job in 2025. He’s on Licey in the Dominican Winter League and will have an opportunity to make up for some of the playing time he lost to the suspension.
Schneider, Barger, Loperfido, Lukes, Clase and I’ll add Ernie Clement and Horwitz to the list are young players likely to be competing for part-time or bench roles. None has especially high trade value but they could be pieces of a package in a larger deal or part of a smaller trade between two teams that addresses a need on both sides or resolves a roster jam — such as when the Blue Jays traded Santiago Espinal to the Cincinnati Reds.
(Photo of Chris Bassitt: Jonathan Dyer / USA Today)
