The NFC North is the best division in the NFL, and it’s not particularly close. The 5-0 Minnesota Vikings (+63), 4-1 Detroit Lions (+60), 4-2 Chicago Bears (+47) and 4-2 Green Bay Packers (+41) rank as the top four teams in the NFL in point differential.
No other division in the NFL boasts even three teams with a plus-.500 record.
Of course, the division’s fabulous start has some important caveats — who have the Bears beaten, really? — and we’ll get into some of those, but through six weeks of the season, one question everyone is wondering is: Can four teams from the same division actually make the playoffs?
It’s never happened before. That’s not saying as much as you think since the NFL playoffs didn’t include three wild cards until 2020, but that doesn’t mean it cannot happen. To give us an indication of how likely it is to happen this year, we turn to my NFL Projection Model.
After simulating the season more than 100,000 times, all four NFC North teams make the playoffs just under 7% of the time. Safe to call that a long shot, as it would be roughly equivalent to the 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars, whose playoff changes currently sit at 6%, rallying to make the playoffs.
So, despite the division’s historic start — the NFC North is the first division since realignment in 2002 to have every team with four wins through six weeks — we’re still a long way away from it being a sure thing.
Still, let’s dive a little deeper into numbers to explore why it could happen.
Why it will happen
Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers
Coming into the season, the Lions and Packers were viewed as realistic Super Bowl contenders. Both teams made the playoffs last year, and according to my preseason projections, the Lions ranked third with a 78% chance, while the Packers were eighth at 66%. Of course, I wasn’t the only one who was bullish on these teams. BetMGM listed the Lions and Packers as two of the top eight teams with the best chance to win the Super Bowl this year. At this point, it’s not shocking that these two are where they are. My projections for the Lions and Packers to make the playoffs currently sit at 80% and 58%, respectively.
Minnesota Vikings
My model didn’t give the Vikings didn’t much of a chance to make the playoffs going into the season — I’ve already taken the L there — but they weren’t projected to be a bottom feeder, either. My projections gave them a 17% chance and a most likely record of 7-10. Well, the Vikings have stormed out to a 5-0 record, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the league, and have impressive wins over the 49ers, Texans, Packers and Jets.
Maybe they will fade a little, but Sam Darnold is playing the best ball of his career, and the defense projects as one of the top five in all of the NFL. So even with a dropoff, the Vikings have started so well that their playoff odds have skyrocketed, all the way up to 95%. If you think that’s too high, since 1990, 64 teams have started 5-0 and 91% of them have made the playoffs.
Betting breakout
Vikings to win the NFC North (+140): The Vikings have played one of the tougher schedules to date, which makes their 5-0 record even more impressive. While the betting market slightly favors the Lions to win the NFC North (+140), I think the loss of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be more significant than people realize.
Chicago Bears
The Bears are the final piece of the puzzle for this division to make history. My projections have the Bears at 39% to make the playoffs, and that’s a good chunk lower than the third-most likely team in the division, Green Bay at 58%. And it’s not surprising. The Bears didn’t have the highest of expectations coming into the year — they more like a “year away” type of team for 2024 — but rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has played better the last few weeks, and starting out 4-2 is a good way to kick things off. The key for them will be their next three games.
The Bears have their bye this week, but starting in Week 8, they go on the road at the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals before returning home to play the New England Patriots. If they can go 2-1 in those games at get to 6-3, it gives them a good shot to make the playoffs. But if they drop two or all three games in that stretch, it’s going to be uphill battle. Why? Let’s take a look
Why it won’t happen
The Bears remain at the center of this part of the conversation because after the next three games they embark on a brutal stretch to end their season. Starting in Week 11, the Bears play the Packers and Vikings, then go on the road to Detroit, San Francisco and Minnesota, before returning home to play the Lions and Seattle Seahawks ahead of their regular-season finale in Green Bay. That’s a murderer’s row to end their season. In those eight games, my model currently makes the Bears the favorite in one (home against the Seahawks). Sure, they’ll be short underdogs when playing at home against their division rivals, but that’s a lot of work to do to make the playoffs.
Of course, it’s not only the Bears that could fall out of the race. The Packers could miss the playoffs, and so could the Lions. The Bears are just the most likely at this point because they’re the worst of a good group of teams, according to my projections.
But that’s part of the problem. So far, only one intra-division game has been played by these teams this season: The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in Week 4. That means these teams are going to start beating up on each other soon. And when that happens, it’s going to be very difficult for all four teams to finish with records good enough to make the playoffs.
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(Photo: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
