All four remaining MLB teams are in action on Thursday. The ALCS advances to Game 3 with the New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians. The NLCS is moving on to Game 4 with the Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets. The Yankees and Dodgers both have a two-game advantage but the Mets have one win and the Guardians none yet.
First up on Thursday, the ALCS shifts to Cleveland as the Guardians face a 0-2 gut-check. The Yankees have outperformed them to the tune of 11 runs to five over the first two games. In Game 2, the Yankee bats did the work, despite some fielding errors, raining down hits that the Guardians just couldn’t keep pace with. The Yankees are deeply favored to win the best-of-seven series, but the odds for Game 3 are much closer, with neither team strongly favored to take the win on the first night at Progressive Field.
Of course, anyone who is writing off the Guardians right now might remember Cleveland’s previous series, going scoreless against Detroit for two games before surviving two eliminations to make the ALCS. It’s not over until it’s over. The Guardians’ regular season wins clocked in only two below the Yankees. And yet. The Yankees won Game 2 with the Guardians using their best starter and Jose Ramirez blasting a homer. And it appears Aaron Judge’s playoff slump might be over.
The Guardians have what it takes to win a game — can they keep it going for a best-of-seven?
The Dodgers and Mets face off in the second game of the night in a series that is turning into a true volley. The Dodgers shut out the Mets in Game 1 and 3, but the Mets sandwiched in a 7-3 performance against the Dodgers in LA in Game 2. Now the Mets have a chance to even the series again at home. But Game 3 saw the Dodgers’ stars return to form as the Mets defense showed serious holes. Enrique “Kiké” Hernandez homered in the sixth, and then Shohei Ohtani smashed a three-run homer to put the Dodgers up 7-0 in the eighth on Wednesday night. The final score was 8-0 with the Mets coming up empty at home.
Game 4 is a critical win for the Mets, with just two more chances to ride the energy of a home crowd. The Dodgers are starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who started against the Mets only once this year, in April, and pitched six innings, allowing one home run and three earned runs. The Mets’ starter Jose Quintana started against the Dodgers in March, pitched six innings and allowed two homers and three earned runs. The Dodgers are favorites to win both the game and the series.
Here’s a look at the odds and projections from The Bat X for Thursday’s ALCS and NLCS games.
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New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians — ALCS Game 3
Series odds: Yankees -800, Guardians +550
New York leads the series 2-0
Game 3 pitching matchup: Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs. Matthew Boyd (CLE)
How to watch Yankees at Guardians
- Venue: Progressive Field — Cleveland
- Time: 5:08 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets — NLCS Game 4
Series odds: Dodgers -375, Mets +300
Dodgers leads the series 2-1
Game 4 pitching matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. Jose Quintana (NYM)
How to watch Dodgers at Mets
- Venue: Citi Field — Queens, N.Y.
- Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
MLB game projections from THE BAT X
In the tables below, you’ll see details for each MLB matchup, then a lot of numbers (which are updated all day):
- “Moneyline” shows each team’s odds on BetMGM.
- “Implied Win%” is the chance a team has to win based on those BetMGM odds.
- “THE BAT X win%” is the chance a team has to win based on EV Analytics’ projections.
- “Cash Line” is how THE BAT X would price each team’s odds.
- “Value” is the percentage difference between the odds chances and our projections.
The higher the value percentage, the better — which you can easily see from the color coding from red (bad pick) through to green (good pick).
Note: On mobile, you may have to scroll to see the color-coded “Value” column on the far right of the first set of tables.
Another note: If you’re seeing old data or the tables aren’t showing up, you may need to “hard refresh” this page, or you may have an ad blocker or other software blocking the tables from loading.
(Photo of Aaron Judge: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
