It’s a weird week in the NFL when Baker Mayfield steals the show with a four-touchdown, three-interception game on the road.
Luckily for us, Mayfield’s chaotic performance is exactly what this column’s “QB charting” section is for. Mayfield is joined in this week’s Quick Outs by a hopeless Dallas Cowboys run defense, Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers potentially turning over a new leaf and Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams once again leveling up.
Mayfield’s Week 6 box score got my quarterback charting senses tingling.
In the most bizarre game of the season (so far), Mayfield threw for 325 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions on 36 attempts against the New Orleans Saints. All of the insanity, good and bad, came out in the wash with a dead-average 52.6 QBR. It was a stat line that just had to be investigated further.
The reality is Mayfield was neither as heroic as the 325 yards and four touchdowns nor as bad as the three interceptions would lead you to believe.
(Chart illustration: Skye Gould / The Athletic)
A majority of Mayfield’s throws and accurate passes were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Mayfield was peppering the short-middle area of the field while sprinkling in some throws to the intermediate range. That’s not necessarily bad, of course, but it’s hard to clear the 300-yard mark that way without some help.
According to TruMedia, the Bucs had 254 yards after the catch in Week 6 — the most of any team by 74 yards. There were so many broken coverages and bad tackle attempts from the Saints’ defense that played into the total.
For instance, Mayfield hit Sean Tucker on a wide-open checkdown for an explosive gain when the Saints busted a man-coverage call. Chris Godwin later took a checkdown of his own 54 yards to the house after weaving through the entire Saints defense. The Saints were missing assignments and whiffing on tackles all game long.
ROD CHRISTOPHER GODWIN JR.
: #TBvsNO on FOX pic.twitter.com/LHuT5fjXoi
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 13, 2024
On the flip side, two of Mayfield’s three interceptions were more bad luck than anything else. One bounced off of Jalen McMillan’s hands right to a Saints defender, and another was batted at the line of scrimmage by defensive lineman Bryan Bresee before miraculously falling to a Saints defender once again. Those interceptions won’t happen every week, but sometimes football is a stupid game with stupid results.
The one area I want to make sure Mayfield gets his proper due is for what he did under pressure. Mayfield was accurate on 6-of-7 pressured attempts and made some serious throws in those instances, including a sweet touchdown pass to tight end Cade Otton.
Baker Mayfield’s Week 6 numbers
| Comp. | Att. | TDs | WR Adj. | INTs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 27 (2 drops) | 36 | 4 | 1 | 3 (1 pass def.) |
| Under pressure | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Out of pocket | 4 (1 drop) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5-plus pass rushers | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Man coverage | 7 (1 drop) | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Zone coverage | 17 (1 drop) | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 (1 pass def.) |
| Tight-window throws | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 (1 pass def.) |
| Open-window throws | 22 (2 drops) | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Mayfield used to be so skittish and unsure of himself in cluttered pockets, especially while he was playing in Cleveland. That’s much less true now. Mayfield did a great job in this game of maintaining a solid base, finding areas of grass in the pocket and keeping his eyes down the field once the pocket started closing on him. That development, more than anything else, has been what’s set the Bucs’ version of Mayfield apart from that of the Browns’.
Stat check: Dallas Cowboys’ run defense EPA
It’s no exaggeration to say the Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses of the modern era.
Six weeks into the season, the Cowboys have surrendered minus-22.31 cumulative EPA on run plays, according to TruMedia. Nobody else is in the same stratosphere right now — the Los Angeles Rams rank 31st at minus-8.08. Teams are running on Dallas both efficiently and at a high volume.
That’s bad enough framing as it is but few other teams have been in that range since the turn of the century. Since 2000 (which is as far back as TruMedia goes for this), the Cowboys’ cumulative run defense EPA is the fourth-worst mark through six weeks. Only last year’s Carolina Panthers, the 2022 Browns and the 2002 New York Jets were worse. In fact, out of 798 individual team seasons over that span, just six defenses have fallen below the minus-20.00 mark.
Dallas is in rare territory right now.
Drawing the Detroit Lions in Week 6 was a perfect game to put all of those issues on display, too. The Cowboys let things get out of hand early and never had a shot at recovering.
Knuckles for 6⃣ #DETvsDAL | FOX pic.twitter.com/4SPVFS5WX4
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) October 13, 2024
Take running back David Montgomery’s first touchdown, for example. Center Frank Ragnow and right guard Kevin Zeitler get four hands on defensive tackle Mazi Smith from the jump. Smith (whose second-year jump hasn’t really materialized) gets blown 10 yards off the ball to open the lane for Montgomery.
A more competent run defense still might bring Montgomery down later in the play, but that’s too much to ask of the Cowboys right now. Montgomery races through the second level and shrugs a final defender to the turf before reaching over the goal line.
Dallas got dominated at every single layer of the defense on that run. The rest of the day pretty much followed suit. The Lions didn’t pop a single run for more than 20 yards, but they churned out a steady 5.1 yards per carry by just mashing their way to efficient gains over and over and over again.
I know Micah Parsons was out Sunday, and a couple of Dallas linebackers were sidelined, too. But this has been a bad run defense for most of the season, and its Week 6 performance fell right in line. This game was not a blip — and it’s hard to see how things can take a turn for the better, even when some guys return to the lineup.
All it took was one half versus the Washington Commanders for Flowers to put up career numbers.
Even without seeing a single target in the second half, Flowers finished Sunday’s win with nine catches for 132 yards, topping his previous regular-season high of 111 yards, set just the week before against the Cincinnati Bengals. The cherry on top? That’s the first stretch of back-to-back 100-yard games in Flowers’ career.
That is an encouraging feat by itself, but Flowers’ usage and the little details in his game are what pop more than the numbers.
First, offensive coordinator Todd Monken continues to find ways to get the ball to Flowers outside of standard dropback situations. The Ravens opened this game by fast-motioning Flowers from the slot to the outside before he immediately snapped back to catch a quick screen. Monken went back to that same call later in the game, too.
BIG PLAY ZAY!!!! THAT’S A 44-YARD GAIN!!!
TUNE IN ON CBS!! pic.twitter.com/2yBTg7peYq
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 13, 2024
Monken also continues to give Flowers opportunities on jet sweeps and end arounds. Results have varied, but those plays are a good way to get the ball in the hands of the Ravens’ most dynamic receiver right away and keep defenses honest on the perimeter.
I’ve harped on some of Flowers’ frantic route running and questionable ball skills before, but his work against the Commanders was more complete. Flowers made Lamar Jackson’s life easier a number of times, and he did especially well to attack the ball over the middle. He didn’t give defensive backs a chance to get back into the play.
On one crossing route early in the second quarter, Flowers came back a yard from his initial route path to attack the ball — he didn’t wait for it to come to him. Flowers did the same thing on a short dig route later in the quarter. And just before the two-minute warning, Flowers was targeted on another deep crossing route, on which he made sure to attack the ball with his hands away from his frame.
Those may seem like small details, but they can be the differences between a good and great player in the NFL. Flowers is a weapon with the ball in his hand. Showing the skills to make sure the ball gets to his hands is a huge step.
Anatomy of a highlight: Caleb Williams’ TD pass to Keenan Allen
Williams adds another layer to his game every week.
Many of the changes have been wholesale, like how Williams’ accuracy has improved to every area of the field since Week 2, and how his thoughtfulness and efficacy as a pocket manager took a jump in Week 4 against the Rams. More recently, Williams’ timing and decision-making have started to take shape.
Sometimes, it’s simpler than that. Williams makes one or two throws per week that make you say, “Oh, that’s new. He hadn’t done that as a pro yet.” Williams’ first touchdown throw to Allen against the Jacksonville Jaguars is just the latest example.
SLAYYYYYYYY
: @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/pyRPzM7rmM
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 13, 2024
The Jaguars are running Cover 2 in this clip. Middle linebacker Devin Lloyd (No. 33) is usually going to open his hips directly to the passing strength in that coverage and is responsible for handling any vertical threats up the middle.
On the other side, the Bears have a good concept called to beat Cover 2. Rome Odunze (No. 15) is the point man in the bunch formation and runs a deep stop route right at the split safety. Not only does Odunze occupy the safety, but he also forces the strongside linebacker playing the “hook” area to expand with him.
Odunze’s route opens the middle of the field for Allen (No. 13), the outermost player in the bunch set. Allen runs a “sluggo” (slant and go) to attack Lloyd over the middle.
Lloyd makes a good effort to stay on top of Allen’s route and squeeze the window, but that’s where Williams takes over. Rather than try to loft the ball to the back line over the linebacker, Williams places the ball high and away from him with enough juice to beat the strongside linebacker who’s trying to work back towards the middle of the field.
That’s what serious quarterbacking in the red zone looks like — fast, confident decision-making paired with expert ball placement and blazing velocity. Williams already proving he can play at that level, six weeks in, is as encouraging as it gets.
(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; top photo of Baker Mayfield: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
