A Look Ahead: Predicting the NHL Draft’s First Round in 2024 After Celebrini

I have selected each of the first 23 picks, whose order was determined by Tuesday’s draft lottery. I will have a complete mock draft of the first round and a mock draft of the second round closer to the actual draft.

Here, I start to assemble my final draft board of the top 100, stepping back from my personal assessments to think about possible targets and fits for each team. These are my best estimates based on a combination of team necessity, my understanding of team leanings and amateur scouting department preferences, and the consensus, after speaking with scouts, agents, people around a lot of players, and team staff.

When I have been comfortable enough to make assumptions, I have also sketched out potential outcomes and other relevant factors for particular selections.

---

1. San Jose Sharks: Macklin Celebrini, C, Boston University

It’s signed, sealed, delivered.

2. Chicago Blackhawks: Ivan Demidov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg

I think Demidov and Belarusian defenceman and Michigan State freshman sensation Artyom Levshunov are the two favorites in this race. The next month and a half is now all the Blackhawks have to decide which one it will be. I anticipate that they will meet with Levshunov at the combine as well as with Demidov and his representatives at Gold Star Hockey’s scheduled showcase in Florida the week before to the draft. If Demidov’s meeting goes well and the Blackhawks are satisfied with the logistics of drafting a Russian, I would give him the starting position. In any case, search for a prominent client of Dan Milstein to join the Blackhawks. They also will not have to work in silence since they will get their way with anybody they choose.

3. Anaheim Ducks: Artyom Levshunov, RHD, Michigan State University

After trading for Cutter Gauthier in exchange for Jamie Drysdale and using recent high selections on Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish, evaluators I have spoken with predict the Ducks will select a defenseman. If Demidov is taken by the Blackhawks, Levshunov becomes more noticeable. In the event that the Blackhawks select Levshunov, the Ducks will probably take a close look at and investigate tall Russian defenseman Anton Silayev, Denver’s breakout player Zeev Buium, and London Knights two-way player Sam Dickinson. Given Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov already on the team, I wonder if Silayev and Dickinson’s stature and defensive prowess will outweigh Buium’s more aggressive style of play. It is important to note that Silayev, Mintyukov, and Zellweger are all lefties.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Anton Silayev, LHD, Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod

I had Medicine Hat center Cayden Lindstrom play for the Blue Jackets in our staff mock, and I still believe that Lindstrom and Adam Fantilli as a one-two punch would be very appealing to them because of their comparable makeups, great size, and skating ability. However, Silayev has become more apparent to me the more I have researched and asked about over the past few days. In addition to the obvious relationship with the organization’s large Russian population, Silayev simply complements David Jiricek’s righty with his left-handedness. Their future lineup is envisioned to be centered around Silayev’s stature, skating prowess, and defensive promise.

5. Montreal Canadiens: Cayden Lindstrom, C, Medicine Hat Tigers

The Habs are in a unique position in that, in a draft highlighted by its half-dozen top D prospects, they should not feel compelled to target one and can instead focus on the impact forwards. Kaiden Guhle is already established, and there are several other young D players who could factor into the depth chart in Montreal. Lane Hutson, David Reinbacher, and Logan Mailloux are also coming. Lindstrom is a high pick for the Habs if the Blue Jackets decide not to select him. He is the second top-six center they sorely need, behind (or perhaps in front of) Nick Suzuki.

6. NHL Utah: Zeev Buium, LHD, University of Denver

The strength of the Coyotes’ pool at forward (Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, Daniil But, etc.) and on defense (Dmitri Simashev, Maveric Lamoureux, etc.) allows them to focus on taking the best player. It doesn’t hurt that that player is a California kid who plays a short flight away in Denver and whose game could really complement the length of Simashev or Lamoureux on Utah’s blue line of the future. Buium to Utah makes a lot of sense.

7. Ottawa Senators: Zayne Parekh, RHD, Saginaw Spirit

With this selection, it is expected that the Senators will give priority to a defenseman. With his contacts in the OHL, I am sure Steve Staios will write a comprehensive book on Parekh and Dickinson. Though Carter Yakemchuk with his size-shot-skill combination might be considered, I believe they would like to have a righty over a lefty. However, Parekh’s exceptional point-producing ceiling most likely should and I believe will prevail.

8. Seattle Kraken: Sam Dickinson, LHD, London Knights

Since its founding, the Kraken have selected 11 players in the first two rounds of the draft. Eight of them have been used on attackers, just two on defense (Ryker Evans and Lukas Dragicevic), and one on goalie. Their three first-round selections have all been forwards. In the last two drafts, their first three selections have all been forwards. They have quickly established a formidable pool at forward. Dickinson is the finest option available in this situation, and it is time they used a premium pick on a D. Although they picked two WHL D last year in Dragicevic and Caden Price, I believe their group will also take Yakemchuk into consideration. However, Dickinson’s superior skating and defense should prevail. Should Parekh be

9. Calgary Flames: Tij Iginla, C/LW, Kelowna Rockets

The Flames have used their last four first-round picks on forwards dating back to Juuso Valimaki in 2017 and could use one of the top D (the acquisition of Hunter Brzustewicz helped add to a pool that was thin on D, as did taking Etienne Morin with their second-rounder a year ago, but they could still use a true stud). If the No. 1–8 picks play out the way I have them here, or if those above eight players are gone, this is where I believe the draft will start to open up and become less predictable. Yakemchuk is the best D that is available. The Hitmen are co-owned by the Calgary Sports and Entertainment Corporation, and he has performed with them in their backyard all season long. I do wonder whether it might also work against Yakemchuk, whose warts they will also know, even if we have seen ownership connections work out before (Dallas owner Tom Gaglardi also owns the Kamloops Blazers and the Stars have picked two of their players in recent years, for example). Overexposure might be harmful at times.

It makes perfect sense for Iginla to join the Flames, and it does not seem like a nepotistic choice either. Many predict that he will play in this range and that he will complement the guys the Flames have selected in the draft. Furthermore, they will not have to worry about his desire to stay, which is something that the Flames still feel is a concern in the wake of the exits of Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and other players. They would benefit from Iginla’s scoring power and top-of-the-lineup upside.Samuel Honzek, Connor Zary, and Matt Coronato are all excellent players; my ranking for the first two has always been higher than for the others. However, they lack a game-changer, and if everything goes according to plan, Iginla might be that—something some are not sure Konsta Helenius can be. That trait is undoubtedly shared by Cole Eiserman and Berkly Catton as well, but Iginla just edges over since it is near enough.

The expectation is that the Devils will select a forward if they do not move this pick, having used their last two high picks on defense (Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec), of course (they recently signed Seamus Casey, who I think has a genuine potential to be a strong NHL defenseman, and one they believe in). The three best forwards on the field are Catton, Eiserman, and Helenius. Their schedule works well with Helenius’s professional preparation (his coach for this season, Olli Jokinen, told me he believes he is ready to fight for an NHL job next season). The thought of Jack Hughes feeding Eiserman on the power play has some appeal, but I wonder if their struggles in acquiring Alexander Holtz, another winger with a weak game, are related to

11. Buffalo Sabres: Carter Yakemchuk, RHD, Calgary Hitmen

Of course, Catton and Eiserman are elite players who should be available at No. 11. Additionally, Beckett Sennecke has gained entry into this range due to his skill level. Specifically, Catton fits in with the type of forward they have drafted recently. And even while they have indicated that they are happy to continue accepting individuals with similar goals and physiques, I do question whether there can be too much of a good thing. With the exception of Ryan Johnson and Owen Power, they have spent nine of their last eleven top-40 selections on forwards. If a top D pick in the draft becomes available, they ought to jump at the chance. Yakemchuk, Mattias Samuelsson, Rasmus Dahlin, and a blue line of Power have undoubtedly

The Flyers add Matvei Michkov’s possible future linemate, Catton, to their roster a year after Matvei fell to them and they pounced. Michkov’s astute, tactical approach could be the foundation for Catton’s skating prowess and finesse. If Catton is available, this seems like a no-brainer—especially in light of Gauthier’s passing. They should be all over it if Catton or Helenius are still available, which I believe is likely given the likelihood that one of them is. They need to draft and develop a top-six center of the future.

13. Minnesota Wild: Cole Eiserman, LW, U.S. NTDP

The youthful defense in Iowa underperformed last year, and the Wild have spent their last seven first-round picks on forwards. However, Brock Faber lessens the need to acquire a premium defense, and because the top defenders in the draft are all gone, I prefer them to take a chance on Eiserman. He committed to Minnesota before renouncing to be closer to home, played his final years of minor hockey at Shattuck, and has the potential to be the one-shot game-breaker the Wild have sorely wanted. They also do not have to be as concerned about Danila Yurov’s center-ice position after his success this season. After reaching out to Charlie Stramel for a position last year, they learn their lesson and resume taking

14. San Jose Sharks (via Pittsburgh Penguins): Adam Jiricek, RHD, HC Plzen

Celebrini, Will Smith, Quentin Musty, Filip Bystedt, David Edstrom, William Eklund, and the rest of the bunch give the Sharks a formidable young forward core around which to develop. While I do like Shakir Mukhamadullin, I believe Luca Cagnoni has a genuine chance to surprise some people. They should look to use this pick on a defenseman, and they can afford to be the team that selects Jiricek, who was thought to be a potential top-10 pick last summer until two knee injuries derailed his season and turned him into a wild card in their rebuilding process.

15. Detroit Red Wings: Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, RW, Mora IK

Sennecke, who many believe will finish in the top 15 or even top 10 at this point, and Trevor Connelly are two skill-first types of forwards that the Red Wings could really use an injection of in their pool. However, as I have said in the past couple of drafts, they just keep going after the well-rounded, projectable top-nine players with a strong work ethic. In addition to having actual secondary offense as a scorer with some B-level skill, feel, and skating to go along with his motor and competitiveness, Brandsegg-Nygard perfectly matches their DNA.

(This year, they are going to ditch it and go with a Sennecke or Connelly type.)

16. St. Louis Blues: Beckett Sennecke, RW, Oshawa Generals

In the best-case situation, I am confident the Blues would prefer to accept a D here due to pool needs. However, the top centers and defensemen will go in the mid-teens because to the talent pool in this draft; the remaining high-skill wingers should be sufficiently different from the next best player at another position to be selected by clubs anyway. Sennecke will probably be chosen ahead of this, in my opinion, but with the teams’ lineups and the requirements of some players ahead of them, it appears that there will be a talented forward or two available. Whoever that is, the Blues ought to take him or her. They could take Jiricek and possibly the

It is beginning to seem like Emery might be the D who breaks into the teens and possibly surprises some fans. He made a good impression on everyone at U18 Worlds, and based on his test results and interview performance, I believe he will make an even bigger impression in the combine. Teams are drawn to him because of his length, skating ability, unrealized physical potential, and improving puck game. The Capitals seem like a possible fit, having selected forwards Ryan Leonard and Andrew Cristall with their first two picks in the previous season (he also fits with the type of defense they were going for when they selected players like Vincent Iorio and Ryan Chesley).

18. New York Islanders: Trevor Connelly, LW, Tri-City Storm

Connelly is without a doubt the most gifted player still alive, and anytime I have considered which teams could sign him, Lou Lamoriello—a hero at Providence College, to which Connelly is committed—and the Islanders—who could truly utilize his skill—come to mind.

For certain clubs, I believe that at this point in the draft, Hage’s advantages of position, size, and skating (plus the talent, playmaking, etc.) will start to stand out from the rest of the field of players. Teams want those items as well in trades, and given Vegas’s history, he will probably be transferred anyhow. All things considered, though, the Golden Knights have made their fair share of selections from the USHL, have previously used Brendan Brisson to go from the Steel to Michigan pipeline in the first round, could use a natural center in their pool after trading Edstrom, and will probably take into account the fact that Michigan plays their young players and that a strong freshman year is a real possibility for trade value in addition to all the attention that team gets.

20. Chicago Blackhawks (via Tampa Bay Lightning): Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph Storm

I think there will be more of a push for the Blackhawks to select a defenseman if they select Demidov. A forward like Luchanko would fit in well with their recent priorities, namely skating, if they select Levshunov. If only because this is not a range where many teams will have a D at the top of their lists and since Luchanko has forced himself from the 30s talk into the 20s conversation, I have them picking Luchanko here even after taking Demidov. In combine testing, he will also further establish himself in this area.

21. Los Angeles Kings: Sacha Boisvert, C, Muskegon Lumberjacks

Boisvert is a popular player who will be highly sought after by teams due to his stature (with room to grow), competitiveness, intangibles, improving power game, and respectable skating and ability. Some have hinted that he could be among the top-15 players, but the Kings do not have many options at center right now, and he could end up finishing the playoffs with three points in eight games.

Though it is not Beaudoin’s style, I know Barry Trotz has made much talk about the Predators using the draft to add talent and upside, and they have seen the impact Ryan O’Reilly’s defensive positioning and two-way game can have on a team. That is what Beaudoin is aiming for. Beaudoin, a projectable third-line center who affects the game beyond the scoresheet and has established himself as one of the most likeable players in his age group, is among the fittest, strongest, and hardest-working players in the draft.Given that they already have Matthew Wood, Joakim Kemell, Zachary L’Heureux, and other players coming up on the wing, I believe they are more likely to seek a center than one of the more skilled wingers here if the D they like is gone.

23. Toronto Maple Leafs: Igor Chernyshov, LW, Dynamo Moscow

I can think of several players on this team that the Leafs group would like. They are always on top of all the OHL players, and I could see them seeing beyond Marek Vanacker’s injury and Liam Greentree’s poor U18 worlds to appreciate what he is got going for him and what he accomplished in Windsor the previous two seasons. They might enjoy Andrew Basha of Medicine Hat for his skill and competitiveness. I could see people appreciating Terik Parascak’s intelligence. However, they have also demonstrated a willingness to choose Russian players in the draft, and Chernyshov will have a strong argument to be the best player available in the mid-20s given his skill and some of the traits they value.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic. Photos: Maksim Konstantinov / SOPA Images / LightRocket, Jonathan Kozub, Dale Preston / Getty Images)