The NHL offseason has, to this point, been quiet.
The playoffs are still in progress, and teams have not started to systematically assemble their 2024–25 lineups. Of course, the majority of that work must wait until after the draft at the end of June and the commencement of free agency on July 1. However, it has been rather mild when it comes to less restricted business, such as extensions for restricted free agents.
That might soon start to change, as the NHL Draft the following week provides an ideal environment for teams and agents to interact and make arrangements. It would be wise for the Detroit Red Wings and general manager Steve Yzerman to obtain additional information regarding the possibility of reshaping Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider’s contracts during the offseason.
With some of their best prospects preparing to compete for NHL playing time and Detroit having narrowly missed the playoffs this season, this offseason is undoubtedly significant. Yzerman could thus go in a number of different paths.
So, let us explore the various shapes Detroit is offseason could take in order to fill the late May lull. I have imagined three distinct scenarios for the Red Wings’ possible approaches below, along with what an opening-night roster may include in each.
The majority of the salary forecasts are derived from Evolving Hockey estimates, which are normally rounded to the nearest hundred thousand. However, in several instances, I modified Evolving Hockey’s estimate based on my intuition regarding the player’s particular situation.
Scenario 1: Fill internally/go young
This is the easiest to understand, but it is also the least likely. With this strategy, the Red Wings only re-sign Christian Fischer in an up-front depth role and Shayne Gostisbehere to continue leading the power play. Instead of pushing for outside free agents, they take advantage of the summer exodus to promote as many prospects as possible.
Jonatan Berggren aims to take Patrick Kane’s playmaking role by landing a full-time position in the top six. On the blue line, Simon Edvinsson is obligated to play in the top four. Additionally, Marco Kasper and Carter Mazur collaborate with Michael Rasmussen on an energy line in Detroit, bringing their Grand Rapids chemistry with them.
In this case, Detroit would be better served by using the remaining almost $3.5 million in cap space in one of two ways: either by upgrading up front or by purchasing additional term on the Seider and Raymond contracts, which Evolving Hockey estimated to be six and seven years, respectively. However, I did not want to prevent any young players from competing for top-nine positions because the goal of this scenario was to go young, and it did not seem like the best use of money to spend more than a couple million dollars to acquire a new fourth-liner.
With five players on the roster and four in the starting lineup each night—four of whom played the majority of the previous season in Grand Rapids—this strategy would undoubtedly present opportunities for Detroit Lions prospects. How much is something worth is the question. Because this group in its current form would most likely represent a regression in 2024–2025.
Though these responsibilities would demand a lot of them, Berggren, Mazur, and Kasper were three of Grand Rapids’ top four scorers in the AHL playoffs, which is reason for confidence. Is Berggren’s game versatile enough to match up well with Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher, who will undoubtedly be put in challenging situations? And in that case, is he still capable of producing offense? Is it really a good idea to have Kasper and Mazur make their league debuts together, given that they are on a line that can not be protected the way you might desire with rookies?
It is challenging and improbable to break in so many rookies at once because of these questions.
In fact, the rest of the lineup’s composition elevates them. After Justin Holl left and Edvinsson and Albert Johansson were promoted, the defense remains essentially the same. In order to provide a bridge to Axel Sandin-Pellikka in a few years, Gostisbehere was re-signed to continue as the team’s top power-play quarterback. But what does it mean for this defense? It was a problem in 2023–24, and I don’t think it’s really solved here.
This is especially true in goal, where the Red Wings have two contracted goalies, but they can not really relax because Ville Husso struggled with injuries the entire season and was not very good even when he was fit.
When all is considered, this club appears to be headed for a major collapse. In the long run, there might be some benefit to acclimating so many rookies at once, but there is also a genuine chance that it will sabotage the momentum the Red Wings have been gaining and place too much pressure on their young players.
Scenario 2: Getting tougher to play against
This roster would get Detroit within $200k of the salary cap, but not before considerable tweaking and tough choices. Quite a bit more surgery is required.
Firstly, you will observe that in this projection, Raymond’s cap hit is less than in the initial scenario. This is because I had to reduce Raymond’s seven-year extension to six in order to make this many changes. That might not matter much to Detroit, but it would make Raymond an unrestricted free agent when he turns 28 and make his next deal extremely lucrative.
But in this case, Detroit is prepared to take that risk in order to immediately contend for the postseason. They add Chris Tanev, maybe the most valuable pure defender available, to their roster, assembling a defense that can relieve some significant burden on Seider. Dakota Joshua, who scored 18 goals this season in Vancouver and was a force in the playoffs for the Canucks, is a physically dominant addition that will significantly improve their third line.
Even with the loss of the offensive punch that Kane provided this season, they are still able to generate some scoring ability with Viktor Arvidsson. While there is some risk—Arvidsson only participated in 18 games the previous season due to a serious back injury—he has the potential to score 25 goals if he can maintain his health and, despite his stature, he has a stronger defensive influence than, say, Daniel Sprong. Even though Kane naturally takes a step back, Detroit is second line remains offensively dangerous when he is positioned opposite David Perron.
Mazur’s more versatile style gives him the edge over Berggren, and there is even space for a rookie forward. However, since Berggren is no longer waiver exempt, this scenario would require transferring him, which I attempted to connect to another objective: improving in goal.
John Gibson is not the best goalkeeper anticipated to be available this summer; Jacob Markstrom, Linus Ullmark, and Juuse Saros are all possible contenders to move. Although the focus of this scenario is on advancing to the playoffs, Saros and Ullmark’s contracts only have one year remaining, so Detroit still needs to consider its long-term goals. It is not the best match. With two years remaining, Markstrom makes more sense, but other teams in need of a goalkeeper are more likely to engage in a bidding war for him. Does Detroit wish to participate in that?
Gibson was an attempt to find common ground. With three years left on his contract at $6.4 million, he is a high price item, but it is also one reason Anaheim would be interested in talking to him. Lukáš Dostál, the other goalie for the Ducks, is soon to turn 24 and just helped Czechia win a gold medal at the World Championship. Could it be enticing to offer him the net more often for a squad that is rebuilding? Under this scenario, the Ducks would deal Berggren, a second-round selection, and Husso—who has just one year left and could be a seasoned backup for Dostál—to Detroit in exchange for Gibson, with $1 million retained.
The crucial query is: How much of an improvement does Gibson offer over Husso? Although he has undoubtedly played for some tough Ducks teams in the past few years, over the last two seasons, his save % has fallen below.900. It is not nothing to say that he would be a better bet to stay healthy. Gibson can be safely penciled in for more than 40 games, and that would benefit Detroit just by itself. Beyond that, Gibson, who turns 31 this season, might benefit from a change of scenery (and a new defense corps). However, he has a three-year deal, so the repercussions if he does not improve would be severe.
Furthermore, this projection involves a number of players, which carries risk. Is Arvidsson going to be okay? Can Joshua repeat the success he had in his breakthrough year in Vancouver? How much is left in Tanev’s tank considering that he can command at least some term? This scenario strongly relies on the risky nature of free-agency contracts.
This strategy, which trades a little offensive flare to become a more resilient, defensively sound squad, is arguably Detroit has best chance of making the playoffs the next year. But it is reasonable to question if such goal is worth the risk given the expenses and time commitments it could require.
Scenario 3: Keeping Kane
Readers have undoubtedly been anticipating a situation in which Kane, whose entrance has electrified Detroit this season, is able to stay with the Red Wings. Furthermore, even though I believe Kane’s preferred term makes it improbable, we should not completely rule out an extension just yet. However, there will not be much space for improvement elsewhere.
This forecast is almost $400,000 below the cap ceiling, and to be honest, I am not sure this roster is any better than the Red Wings’ this season. Arvidsson’s injury-plagued season provides him ample reason to accept a short-term contract, and joining Kane in Detroit would be a selling point. However, once again, the Red Wings’ health is a concern. For this reason, I ranked Arvidsson back in the top six. That is about as small a collection of wingers as you will find in an NHL top six, even assuming they stay healthy. Although it did not seem like a playoff strategy to me, it was the most economical approach to keep Kane in the starting lineup and add offensive.
Tyler Myers, who is not Tanev but had a great season in Vancouver, gives them some bulk at the back end and might still be a good addition to the second defensive tandem.
It is not easy, though, as the Red Wings would need to move reliable defenseman Olli Määttä in addition to buying out Holl (which is taken into account in every scenario below) in order to free up salary money. This scenario also requires them to let Fischer walk and sign Craig Smith, an older player with a strong checker background who would add some responsibility to the fourth line.
But the goaltender issue remains, and it is reasonable to wonder how much, if at all, this club has improved from the previous one.
There are undoubtedly other possibilities at work here, including different names that would match and possibly more inventive answers to Detroit has issues. However, this drill clearly emphasizes how difficult it will be for the Red Wings to satisfy every player’s demand this summer.
There is cap relief coming a year from now — when the Red Wings free up space from Husso, Robby Fabbri, Jeff Petry and Määttä and with the cap expected to rise again — and plenty of players on cheap entry-level deals progressing through the system.
However, the Red Wings will need to be selective in their short-term priorities, both with regard to position groups and long-term goals.
Are they prepared to lose steam if they have to bear it for a year? Next summer, are they prepared to give up some wiggle room in order to keep moving forward? There is not a truly ideal answer for these significant decisions.
Yzerman seems to have his job cut out for him as the offseason prepares to really get going.
(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
