AFC’s Rushing Forces: Who’s Got the Wheels and Who’s Spinning Their Tires?

Indeed, a few of you adventurous NFL fans may recall with ease that you currently play for the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, and Washington Commanders, in that order. However, the key issue is that there has been a significant change in running back rooms throughout the AFC, primarily due to the departure of prominent players.

Here’s a look at each AFC running back group as of the conclusion of the league’s offseason training. This study’s methodology (statistics courtesy of TruMedia):

• The percentage of plays that gain 50% or more of the yards required for a first down on first or second down, or first downs on third or fourth down, is known as the rush success rate.
• Expected points added (EPA) per carry
• Yards per carry
• EPA per carry/target

(Notes: Rankings in parentheses; individual rankings based on a minimum of 100 touches; 56 running backs qualified)

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

James Cook made a strong impression as Buffalo’s starting running back early in his second season. That does not seem like it will alter in 2024 following Cook’s 1,100-yard performance. Nevertheless, Cook scored just two of the 22 rushing touchdowns the Bills scored last season, with running backs accounting for just seven of those scores. Josh Allen (15 running touchdowns) undoubtedly contributes significantly to the team’s EPA rates.

Others lurking on the depth chart include Ty Johnson, Darrynton Evans, 2024 fourth-rounder Ray Davis and undrafted rookie Frank Gore Jr.

Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane combined for 26 rushing touchdowns last season, with the seasoned Mostert accounting for 18 of those scores. As a rookie, Achane burst for 7.8 yards per run, while Mostert averaged just 4.8 yards per carry. Given his explosiveness, I am interested to see how much more Miami uses Achane in the attack. In addition, Mostert turned 32 in April and has a history of ailments.

Even having players like Jeff Wilson, Salvon Ahmed, and 2024 fourth-round selection Jaylen Wright on the roster, the Dolphins do not exactly lack depth at tailback.

New England Patriots

Although he missed five games due to injury last year, Rhamondre Stevenson did average 4.0 yards per carry. Nevertheless, his overall averages suffered. Antonio Gibson, a former Commanders tailback, joined the Patriots, giving them another youthful and diverse addition. The ball can be caught out of the backfield by him and Stevenson.

Regardless of who starts at quarterback—No. 3 pick Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett—this offense ought to be superior. To keep the quarterback safe, the Patriots still need Gibson or Stevenson to put up greater stats.

New York Jets

Despite the offensive stagnation in 2023, Breece Hall managed to almost reach 1,000 yards rushing with an average of 4.5 yards per carry. Still, the rush success rates demonstrate how terrible the offensive really is. Even with a quarterback who is 40 years old and recovering from an Achilles tendon tear, everyone knows this offense needs to get better.

The Jets changed the depth behind Hall as well, adding the frequently injured Tarik Cohen and selecting Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen in the same round of the April draft.

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AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

It seems like home to Derrick Henry with the Ravens, do not you think? Incorporating Henry into an offense where he is not the only player must be thrilling for the seasoned running back. For the fourth time in the previous five seasons, the 29-year-old topped the NFL in carries (280 in 16 games) last season. He finished first the year before with 349 carries in 17 games.

But in this Ravens offense, it would be difficult to picture Henry gaining 280 yards on the ground. Lamar Jackson is a skilled runner. Keaton Mitchell, who is still recovering from an ACL tear, and Justice Hill ought to be included. But even so, Henry, who is now thirty, seems to be in a position where he may succeed.

Cincinnati Bengals

Considering Joe Mixon’s extended stay in Cincinnati, it might take a moment to get acclimated to the Bengals without him. If Zack Moss continues to run as well as he did with the Indianapolis Colts last season, he might be an improvement. Moss’ EPA decreased in the second half of the season as a result of a shift in his role following the healthy return of Jonathan Taylor.

Chase Brown, a second-year tailback, added explosiveness to his limited playing last season. Even if Moss plays the main part, a Moss-Brown combination should help a slow 2023 ground game.

Cleveland Browns

The main concern in this case is Nick Chubb’s health following his knee injury that ended his season in Week 2 of the previous campaign. As a No. 2 running back, D’Onta Foreman is undoubtedly a good option, but he has played for four different teams in his career. If Chubb’s workload needs to be reduced early, the Browns should have a safety net in the form of his top-20 overall ratings.

If Nyheim Hines recovers from the knee injury he received in a jet-skiing accident this spring, he might provide another dynamic aspect.

Pittsburgh Steelers

It does not have to be the beginning of the end for Najee Harris because the Steelers decided not to pick up his fifth-year option. I saw Mark Ingram go through the same thing with the Saints, and when his four-year rookie contract finished, the franchise signed him to a long-term contract.

Even then, Harris would not be in this position if he possessed greater strength or if Jaylen Warren had not entered the picture. Without the context of a draft pick, Warren’s effectiveness and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield should lead to a larger role. And might the 33-year-old, seemingly immortal Cordarrelle Patterson contribute to the ground game?

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AFC South

Houston Texans

With C.J. Stroud on your team, who needs a running game? By adding Mixon, who turns 28 in July, the Texans are hoping to offer their future great quarterback a better imitation of one. He has been quite reliable, averaging 4.0 yards per run over the last three seasons and hauling in 112 catches in total over the previous two. After more than 1,800 career touches, though, how much more can Mixon enhance the running game?

In this study from last season, third-year tailback Dameon Pierce came in last in every category.

Indianapolis Colts

In 2024, the Colts will not have to deal with Jonathan Taylor’s contract disagreement once more. Additionally, they intend to use a fully recovered Taylor in Cincinnati now that Moss is there. In 10 games last season, Taylor averaged 4.4 yards per rush and scored seven touchdowns. He was a productive player when he was on the field. That was, however, less than his incredible 2022 campaign’s 1.1 yards per carry.

The Colts’ lack of depth allows them to deploy second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson as a runner, which is expected to cause some concern among the fan base given Richardson’s many injuries from the previous season. Trey Sermon has the most experience behind Taylor.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne recorded a second straight 1,000-yard rushing season with 12 total touchdowns last season, an increase of five over 2022. However, while rushing for 47 fewer yards and 117 more yards in 2022, his average yards per carry dropped significantly (5.1 in 2022 compared to 3.8 in 2023).

However, there is no ignoring Eteinne. With 339 rushing yards, Trevor Lawrence came in second to Etienne, while Tank Bigsby only managed 132 yards in his debut season. D’Ernest Johnson, who had a brief breakthrough two years prior, was added by the Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans

Without Henry, how will the Titans identify themselves? Tyjae Spears had a fantastic career at Tulane, and I watched many of his games at Yulman Stadium, so it would not surprise me in the slightest if Spears were to take over as the starting running back. During the previous season, he recorded 52 receptions and averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 100 attempts.

However, Tony Pollard, who was franchise-tagged by the Cowboys in 2023, did not support the case for running backs earning higher salaries. He is no longer in Dallas because of this.

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AFC West

Denver Broncos

With nothing fixed yet, this appears to be one of the more ambiguous groups in the NFL. Javonte Williams was never able to keep up with Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin’s competitiveness. Despite just averaging 3.6 yards per carry in 2023 (217 attempts), Williams received the majority of the carries. Perine was the best pass-catcher, averaging 5.2 yards per run, ahead of McLaughlin.

Then, this offseason, the Broncos signed rookies Blake Watson and Audric Estime. With Jarrett Stidham or Bo Nix at quarterback and their lack of experience, one has to wonder how much the run game can save the offense.

Kansas City Chiefs

It is possible that a strong attack did not result in overall rushing success. Nevertheless, Isiah Pacheco continues to be a valuable asset to the Chiefs’ offensive output and a productive running back. Their current plan is unsustainable as they are unable to enlist the help of any additional running backs.

Considering his decline (3.2 yards per rush in 2023) and lack of playing time, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should count himself fortunate to be back on the roster. Pacheco could be counted on even more this year as the starting back because there is not anyone else of importance on the squad.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders make another interesting move in the AFC as Josh Jacobs leaves for Green Bay. They will now turn to Alexander Mattison and Zamir White, tailbacks who had comparable production rates the previous season. Last season, White racked up 451 yards on 104 carries (averaging 4.3 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. In contrast, Jacobs’ 2023 average of 3.5 yards per rush was quite low.

As the starting running back in Minnesota last season, Mattison averaged 3.9 yards per carry on 180 attempts without any rushing touchdowns. White seems capable of handling this role.

Los Angeles Chargers

There was one more change of leadership when Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins went from John Harbaugh in Baltimore to Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles, and Austin Ekeler left for Washington and Joshua Kelley remained off the roster. That means the Chargers will be losing 284 players from the previous campaign.

However, the rates from Kelley and Ekeler are sufficient justification for a complete overhaul. Edwards had a great season for the Ravens last season, scoring 13 touchdowns near the goal line. Furthermore, Dobbins’ terrible injury history will always be a plot point. When both of them are well, Justin Herbert’s life may be improved.

(Photo of De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)