CAPTAIN SANTA CLARA: How futile that would be. From Brandon Aiyuk’s cryptic remarks in the spring to the harsh clarity of the current position, there has been a major misinterpretation and misplaying of the entire process.
The 49ers’ top players—Jed York, Kyle Shanahan, Paraag Marathe, and John Lynch—missed something in this situation. They misjudged Aiyuk’s resolve to obtain what he believes is rightfully his, as well as the wide receiver market. In May, they fumbled away the moment that appeared to be extremely close to a deal. They got the economics wrong.
It is not Aiyuk who is in charge of roster construction or financial management; it is the 49ers, and they made a mess here. Which might just end up costing them their best opportunity to have a parade in February.
If the 49ers move Aiyuk, which appears to be almost certain, since they are unable to pay him $28 million, $30 million, or any other amount, it would be a catastrophic setback for a team that is purportedly all in for a Super Bowl victory. What a confession: “Well, it seems like the 49ers are almost all in now.”
Of course, it is still plausible that Aiyuk is using his hard-ball strategies—asking for a trade, showing up to camp without practicing, and setting a bar too high for the 49ers to reach—in an attempt to get the most out of them right now. that if the team makes a few more concessions, he will finally sign a long-term contract. And if Aiyuk is able to reach a contract agreement with Cleveland and New England, it is still feasible that the 49ers’ hard-ball strategies—which include accepting trade conditions with both clubs, according to Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area—are intended to force Aiyuk back to the bargaining table permanently. Perhaps there was only one way this could have worked: hardball plus hardball.
However, it does not seem like that is where things are going. The 49ers’ principals do not even appear to think that way. They are aware of reality. They have not encountered anything like this in this era, but this celebrity negotiation has gone completely crazy.
When Shanahan is asked if trading for Aiyuk will make the 49ers better, he responds, “It is difficult to be better when you lose a great guy. Brandon is a fantastic player.” Thus, you must examine everything and comprehend the nature of the predicament we find ourselves in.”
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) August 6, 2024
Though it was tense Tuesday, Shanahan was speaking in terms that were somewhat related to Aiyuk’s 49ers history.
“It’s been at this point for a little bit,” Shanahan said, when asked if this needs to be resolved soon. “So it’s nothing really new to me. You’re always disappointed when you can’t keep hold of all your players or it’s not going exactly right. I don’t like losing anybody. So that’s why I’m hoping it does work out here. But right now, we don’t have that solved yet.”
For the purpose of argument, let us imagine that Aiyuk has been a difficult negotiator, that the 49ers have made several offers, increasing the value each time, and that Aiyuk’s team has simply increased the asking price while other receivers have repeatedly reset the market. That does not seem very unlikely.
Large-scale negotiations can take dangerous twists. Last year, the 49ers and Nick Bosa had a difficult time negotiating, which continued into the week leading up to the start of the regular season. To ensure they did not lose Bosa, however, the 49ers capitulated and went to whatever lengths to secure the highest-paying contract ever offered to a non-quarterback at that point. Given that Aiyuk had just observed how well the 49ers functioned, why had not he attempted to test them like Bosa had?
Although Aiyuk’s worth is not as high as Bosa’s, the 49ers would suffer if they dealt him now since you never receive the same amount of money back for a star when you sell him in August. It is panic time then. Teams have assembled their starting lineups. It will take eight more months to get the draft. The 49ers will never receive their full market worth from the Patriots, Browns, or Steelers (who are reportedly Aiyuk’s first destination and are now involved in trade negotiations, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter).
As Bosa said Tuesday, when asked what the 49ers would lose if Aiyuk is traded: “I trust John and Kyle, but he’s a very tough player to replace.”
When the 49ers acknowledged in April that they were receiving inquiries from other teams regarding Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel but did not like what they were offered, that would have been the appropriate moment for them to make this kind of choice. Back then, they could have acquired a player who would have been in camp right now, Aiyuk, who was a top-30 draft pick, for more money than they will today. And they would not have experienced the months of stress, disconnection, and uncertainty.
If the 49ers could not sign Aiyuk, they ought to have known that back in April. By the way, they dealt DeForest Buckner to them during that period in 2020. Rather, the 49ers decided they could work things out through negotiation. When Aiyuk showed up for camp as a “hold-in,” the 49ers’ perspective was presumably impacted. However, it seems that he has not moved. There is only so far the 49ers can go. And the edge is reached by both sides.
Why is Aiyuk’s price too expensive for the 49ers while the Patriots, Steelers, and Browns are hypothetically willing to pay it? Why did not the 49ers grasp what they would be risking if they did not make one more move up in May if they could have signed Aiyuk? Can you imagine what this offense will look like on third down when Brock Purdy is scurrying around and it is Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, or Chris Conley attempting to escape press coverage instead of Aiyuk, if Aiyuk is a 49ers throwaway asset? Imagine the consequences if the 49ers attempt to replace Aiyuk in the future with a top draft pick—perhaps Dante Pettis 2.0? or the
If the starting players stay healthy and the 49ers are able to sign standout left tackle Trent Williams, their attack will still be very strong even without Aiyuk. However, it will not live up to the potential. Not nearly as good as it needs to be to take home a title.
“I mean, Brandon’s a great player, so it’s real hard to be better when you lose a great player,” Shanahan said of the trade talk. “So you’ve gotta look at anything, you’ve gotta understand the situation we’re in, what that looks like. And that does take time. Hopefully it’ll work out best for him and best for us in the long run.”
Consider it in relation to the 49ers’ primary NFC opponents. How was the Lions offseason spent? Give their best males extensions all over. Not a single panic trade. For the past several years, the Eagles have been rewarding their stars with large contracts. Jordan Love recently received a huge new contract from Green Bay. The Rams just reworked Matt Stafford’s contract.
Talent is gathered by good teams in large quantities; great teams want to hold onto their talent for as long as feasible. And the 49ers, who have a fantastic rapport with Purdy and accomplish all of Shanahan’s requirements for a wide receiver, are preparing to deal Aiyuk, or at least pretending that they would. This seems careless. narrow-minded.
Let me also challenge the conventional wisdom that the 49ers need to exercise restraint with regard to their salary cap situation since Purdy is expected to sign a contract for more than $200 million in the upcoming summer. Yes, that is going to be a huge contract that will have long-term financial implications for both York and the 49ers. Yes, that will eventually have a significant effect on the pay cap for the 49ers. However, because these big contracts are always set out to significantly reduce the effects in the first few years, any prospective Purdy deal will not seriously upset the 49ers cap until 2026 at the latest.
For example, Trevor Lawrence recently inked a $275 million, five-year contract with Jacksonville, which works out to $55,5 million year. However, his salary limit for this year is a quite reasonable $15 million, and in 2025, it rises to $17 million. Because Purdy and Hurts did not have first-round wage structures and were not selected in the first round, the contract that Hurts signed in April 2023 is much more similar to Purdy’s circumstances. In April 2023, Hurts inked a $255 million, five-year contract with the Eagles ($51 million year). His cap amount was only $6.1 million that season; this season, it is $13.6 million.
Purdy’s cap hit will not likely exceed $20 million until 2027 as a result of his new contract. The 49ers have enough time and space to get around that number. Additionally, according to OverTheCap.com, they have $31.5 million in available cap space. The NFL salary cap increases by 10 to 14 percent year.
In the event that the 49ers deal Aiyuk, it will primarily be about the team trying to outbid another star in a trade and having that attempt backfire. Hey, there is a limit to what owners are willing to pay. The Yorks have the authority to set the boundaries because they have invested a significant amount of money in this really strong group. But what exactly are the 49ers getting out of this if they have to forfeit a 26-year-old All-Pro receiver who gets along well with Purdy? Do the 49ers know how much it will cost to attempt to replace him, and what they would miss in the process, if they lose him?
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
