TORONTO: On July 30, the Toronto Blue Jays will be one of the few teams selling as MLB’s trade deadline draws near. But because the Blue Jays plan to try to contend again in 2025, they are adopting the cautious route of merely dealing pending free agents, as opposed to telling teams that everything needs to go.
But is that the best strategy?
The 46-55 Blue Jays’ dismal season record means that Toronto’s front management will be considering player trade offers. Industry insiders do, however, understand that the front management is open to dealing players who are set to become unrestricted free agents in 2019—among them, position players Danny Jansen and Justin Turner, reliever Yimi García, and starter Yusei Kikuchi.
What about players who still have years of control? The Blue Jays have informed teams that they will not be shopping Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, who is injured, or Kevin Gausman.
Without a doubt, the Blue Jays intellectual trust has justified this strategy. One explanation would be that team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins would effectively be admitting defeat if they decided to close the book on this competitive era and resumed operations by the deadline.
After taking over in 2015, Guerrero and Bichette led a rebuild that resulted in competitive teams that qualified for the postseason in three consecutive seasons (2020, 2022, 2023). But those same teams never even came close to winning a championship after going 0–6 in the postseason. It would be the end of an era if the Blue Jays punted on 2025 and began a new rebuild by selling either Guerrero or Bichette, or both. That would leave them well short of reaching the ultimate aim of winning a World Series championship.
Selling to an already disgruntled fan base during the lean rebuilding years would be difficult from a financial standpoint as well. Furthermore, Rogers Communications, the building’s owners, recently invested about $300 million in it, so it is unlikely that they will be amused to see the Rogers Centre sit empty for a while.
On the other hand, if the Blue Jays were to deal their best players, they could accelerate their rebuilding process by adding elite prospects who would restock their farm system. Keith Law of the Athletics was ranked 20th prior to the season.
Guerrero, who has hit five home runs in his last six games, may be the best slugger available in a thin market, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported. In order to negotiate a deal, a team like the Seattle Mariners—who were tied for first place in the AL West with the Houston Astros and desperately needed a slugging first baseman—would probably look to their highly regarded farm system.
In a market where many teams are in need of quality starting pitchers, think about hanging onto Bassitt and Gausman. The Blue Jays might return with a sizable haul of prospects, which might improve the club’s prospects going forward.
Without ever having won a postseason game, would it be tough to watch a Blue Jays core that once promised so much optimism disassembled? Yes. However, holding on to sentimentality is rarely a good idea.
Let’s consider the path to giving the Blue Jays’ core one last hurrah.
Toronto is effectively taking a core that underperformed and hope for different results the next season if they are running it back in 2025. If that seems familiar, it is because the Blue Jays employed the same failed tactic for the 2024 campaign.
As you may remember, the Blue Jays changed their strategy to focus more on the core group already in place having a greater offensive season than 2023 while adding a few supplementary pieces after they were unable to sign Shohei Ohtani last winter. But other from Guerrero, the offense has not improved, which is a major factor in the Blue Jays’ current situation.
The Blue Jays will be one year older in 2025, and although George Springer’s recent play has helped allay some concerns about his age, it is reasonable to wonder how many of the team’s veteran players—Springer, Gausman, Bassitt, and Berríos—will be able to play at or close to their career norms the following season.
In the offseason, the Blue Jays would try to bolster their team. They would have to restock their bullpen, bolster their rotation, and either resign or replace Jansen and other free agents. Promising prospects include Spencer Horwitz, who has demonstrated that he can assist them in the upcoming season. However, key prospects Orelvis Martinez (PED suspension) and Ricky Tiedemann (injury) have missed significant development time this season, which has probably delayed their ability to contribute.
There is not a simple way to turn the Blue Jays into a contender soon, especially in the AL East, unless they sign Juan Soto.
In addition, should the Blue Jays fail to qualify for the postseason in 2025 despite their best efforts, they may find themselves in a worse situation than they are in right now, with Guerrero and Bichette leaving as free agents and possibly only draft picks as compensation.
Given Guerrero’s current hitting approach, it seems sense that the team would want to hang onto him for an additional season to see if the group of players surrounding him can eventually come together to produce a winner. (That emotion strikes again.)
However, attempting it once more the next season with a similar squad might be depending too much on hope rather than the cold, hard facts: this has not been a championship-caliber baseball team as built.
(Top photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
