BREAKING NEWS :Diamondbacks Roster Overhaul: Key Players Out, New Era Begins

Overview.

I examined key players in my May 2022 preview of the Rockies/Diamondbacks series. Through 2024, core players were managed by the team; they were the closer, rotated players, or players who filled a position. Bench players were not included in this. The Diamondbacks have twelve core players as opposed to nine.

The main players as of May 2022 are displayed in the table below. It should be noted that Bard and Blackmon, who were grey-textted, were eventually extended until the 2024 season but were not core.

Data from Baseball Reference.

In two seasons, the two teams took different paths.

What happened in the next two years was very insightful:

Rockies: Their core was extremely stable. One core player was traded away and two non-core players were extended to stay through this season. Therefore, the Rockies retained ten players as core. In March of 2024, looking forward to 2026, the Rockies have 9 core players.

The Diamondbacks’ core has evolved.Daulton Varsho was one of the core players traded, Madison Bumgarner, Carson Kelly, and Nick Ahmed were released during the 2023 season, Melancon had a mutual option buyout, Sergio Alcantara was lost three times, and Pavin Smith and Humberto Castellanos were two of the core players sent to the minors. As a result, the Diamondbacks kept four of its key players (while the Rockies kept 10). Three of these four players—Walker, Gallen, and Kelly—are no longer fundamental members of the team since they are not guaranteed a spot on the squad through 2026. Thus, of the eight players used by the Rockies, only one (KetelMarte) from May 2022 remained a core player in March 2024.

Currently, the Diamondbacks rotation is a possible source of additional core players:

• Several starting pitching prospects would be core players if they were added to the rotation.
• Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly would be core players if they were extended.

In March of 2024, the Diamondbacks have 10 core players under control through 2026 (you will see them in a chart after we finish contrasting the Rockies and the Diamondbacks).

Except for one player (Ketel Marte), the core Diamondbacks are different than they were in May of 2022. In other words, the Diamondbacks changed which players were in their core.

The stark difference in win-loss results of the two teams was stunning:

• The Rockies had a very stable core. But stability isn’t everything. Last season their wins dropped from 68 to 59. Only the Royals and the Athletics had fewer wins.
• The Diamondbacks changed their core. Last season their wins increased from 74 to 84. And they reached the World Series.

Who are the main Diamondbacks going forward?

For the Diamondbacks, the following table shows the 2024 core players (under team control through 2026), their ages, and their bWAR:

• This is an awesome core that includes all the middle of the diamond positions. A few observations follow:

  • There aren’t any core players at first base (Christian Walker) or third base (Eugenio Suarez).
    With Jordan Lawlar in the minors and Blaze Alexander on the bench, the Diamondbacks have depth at shortstop.

  With Mena, Jarvis, and Cecconi in the minors, the Diamondbacks have depth in their rotation. The likelihood is that Henry and Ryne Nelson will head back to the minors once Montgomery and Rodriguez are prepared. That will more than suffice, considering the squad will probably require seven or eight starting pitchers for the whole of the season.

• Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are under control through 2025. Unless they are extended or re-signed, two pitchers will need to take their places in the rotation starting in 2026.
  • There are three outstanding, non-core pitchers in the rotation after the acquisition of Jordan Montgomery (Gallen, Kelly, and Montgomery).
• • Corbin Carroll, 5.4 bWAR.
  • Ketel Marte, 4.9 bWAR.
  • Gabriel Moreno, 4.3 bWAR.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, 3.4 bWAR.
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 3.0 bWAR.
    

    What qualities make up the core of the Diamondbacks?

    The Diamondbacks core is younger. In May of 2022, the Diamondbacks core players were younger than the Rockies core players (median age of 27.5 vs 29.0 yeras old). Therefore, older players do not explain why the Diamondbacks changed their core while the Rockies stayed the same. In March of 2024, the Diamondbacks core is younger than 2022 (median age of 25.8 vs 27.5 years old).

    The Diamondbacks core experiences an average amount of slumps. In 2022, 8 core Rockies had a drop in bWAR, while 7 core D-backs had a drop in bWAR. Therefore, drops in performance did not explain why the Diamondbacks changed their core while the Rockies stayed the same.

    There are a few somewhat above average high performers in the Diamondbacks core.The Rockies had three fewer core players with at least 2.5 bWAR in 2022 than they had in 2021, but the difference was not significant. Why the Diamondbacks changed their core while the Rockies stayed the same cannot be explained by a lack of elite players.

    When examining bWAR for key Diamondbacks players, it went up every season:

    • 2021: 15.5 bWAR
    • 2022: 19.8 bWAR
    • 2023: 25.4 bWAR

    The Diamondbacks released three of their key players during the 2023 season when stronger players were available, which is maybe the most impressive thing they accomplished. They fielded an objectively superior team than they were, instead of dwelling on their sunk costs. In my opinion, it is simple to discuss their behavior but difficult to put into practice.

    In brief.

    By contrasting the Diamondbacks with the Rockies, we can observe that for the last three seasons, the Diamondbacks have had different core players rather than a consistent group. There are just four key players left on the roster from May 2022. Since they won’t be under the team’s control until 2026, three of the four are no longer essential players.

    The Diamondbacks are now a better team as a result of their key changes. Over the past two seasons, they have improved in terms of bWAR. They made it to the World Series the previous year.

    As of right now, the Diamondbacks are guaranteed ten key players through 2026. Five of these key players from the previous season had bWARs of at least 2.5: