With two victories to show for their intense sprint through their opening two games, the Bills have had ten full days to rest and get ready for Week 3. And after a dismal start to the season, a 0-2 Jaguars club will pay them a visit on Monday night.
This week, what caught your attention at the Bills’ Orchard Park facilities? What are the Jaguars’ chances of challenging the Bills in this game?
Here are some of the Bills’ ideas as they try to win three straight in 2024.
Teams would often have a shortened game week, so they would need to receive test results and make a rapid decision by the following Saturday over whether a player would need to be placed on injured reserve for the required four weeks or if they could avoid it entirely. With Terrel Bernard, the starting middle linebacker for the Bills, suffering from a pectoral injury, the additional time perhaps informed their choice or even provided him with a little head start on his recovery. Head coach Sean McDermott stated on Saturday before the game that he thought they would not need to place Bernard on injured reserve, but he would not say for sure because it was not official yet.
That is an improvement over McDermott’s discussion of the Taron Johnson case from last week, when the coach decided against placing Johnson on injured reserve in the days before the Dolphins game. Given that Johnson steered off of IR, it appears likely that Bernard will follow suit. The Bills are going to play three important road games against the Ravens, Texans, and Jets, so it is a major development. The fact that Bernard avoided injured reserve and did not need to miss four games to return to action suggests that he should be ready to play by the Jets game, at the very least. By the Texans game, at the very least, Johnson should be ready to play according to the same reasoning. Regarding Johnson, this week he was observed at the changing area.
The Jaguars run defense is no joke
The Jaguars are a slightly deceptive 0-2 opponent for the Bills for a number of reasons, the most important of which is their run defense. The Jaguars, led by linebackers Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun, have made it very difficult for their opponents to run the ball, especially against two teams that enjoy doing so. First, the Jaguars brilliantly hemmed in their rushing backs for only 70 yards on 24 carries against the Dolphins in Week 1. The Browns surprised everyone in Week 2 by giving Jerome Ford a 36-yard touchdown run; however, it came on a fourth-and-1 play that the Jaguars sold out to thwart. The Jaguars limited the Browns running backs to only on every other play.
Given that the Bills have historically been a pass-heavy team, this would not be an issue in most other seasons, but that has not been the case in 2024. Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, has dedicated more time to rushing the ball than his predecessors did when he took over in 2023. As a result, running the ball has become a mainstay of the offense and a strength.
The fact that teams spend the majority of the game sitting two-high to stop quarterbacks like Josh Allen contributes to it. Another factor is that the game script, which called for a run-heavy strategy in the second half of the team’s Week 2 victory over the Dolphins last week, affected those statistics. In any case, the offensive line has played a major role in the Bills’ running game becoming more significant than it has been in recent years. This Jaguars game will be a great way to gauge their progress as a rushing team. And is Brady prepared to switch to a more pass-heavy strategy if it does not work as well as it has the past two games in order to get the
Jaguars coverage tendency is a test for the WR group
The Bills will face a defense that has employed man coverage at a higher rate than any other team in the league in 2024, in addition to a formidable run defense. TruMedia reports that through the first two games, just 38.8% of the Bills’ snaps have resulted in man coverage. On defense, the Jaguars have spent 55.4 percent of their plays in man coverage. In addition, the Jaguars spent 66.2 percent of their snaps in man coverage against the Dolphins in Week 1, who had an equally potent offense to the Bills. Why does this matter?
Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins are the two outside receivers with the most snap counts through two weeks, and there are concerns regarding each player’s ability to play alone. Compared to other receivers on the roster, Coleman has accounted for a far higher rate of little separation, making him the huge question mark. Next Gen Stats shows that on 27% of Coleman’s 37 routes run in 2024, he had a separation of 1.5 yards or less. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the next closest receiver on the Bills roster, coming in at nearly 17 percent. Since Coleman struggled with separation above 10 yards in his first training camp, this is probably a huge chance for him to demonstrate
However, this is also a chance for tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Khalil Shakir, who have potential plus matchups in the slot, to stand out. It is unclear how the Jaguars will use their top two slot defenders, Darnell Savage and Jarrian Jones, against the Bills in different personnel combinations. Savage was up in the air going into Saturday’s practice, and the Bills may have an even greater advantage in the slot if he is not available. In any case, Kincaid and Shakir possess the route-running abilities necessary to prevail in this matchup somewhat regularly. Although Shakir has seen some success this season, those holding out for Kincaid’s big breakthrough match could
Was the MVS usage a sign of a gameday lineup switch?
Speaking of receivers, it is unclear where Marquez Valdes-Scantling fits in now that the team has also become healthier at other positions, considering that their top four players—Coleman, Shakir, Hollins, and Curtis Samuel—are all healthy. Valdes-Scantling played just four snaps overall last week against the Dolphins, with half of those snaps coming on the last run-out-of-clock drive before backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky took two kneelances to end the game. And compared to Week 1, this was part of a game plan that included a far higher percentage of three-receiver setups. Perhaps more tellingly, Valdes-Scantling did not take a single special teams snap throughout the first half. He only had one snap overall.
Valdes-Scantling’s starting position on game day is in risk since defensive ends Dawuane Smoot and youngster Javon Solomon are getting close to recovering from injuries. Should Smoot be able to play, he will be included right away in the defensive line rotation. As he shown throughout training camp, Solomon can also accomplish that to a lesser extent while providing the Bills with some reps on the core four of their special teams groups. On Monday night, it would not be shocking if Valdes-Scantling stayed idle.
Joe Andreessen closing in on his pro debut?
Buffalo native and linebacker Joe Andreessen very likely would have made his professional debut if it were not for Smoot’s late-week injury. According to what the Bills said following their victory over the Cardinals in Week 1, the Smoot injury caused a cascade effect that altered the defensive and special teams units to the point where they had to activate a fifth defensive end from the practice squad and move Ja’Marcus Ingram from a probable healthy scratch to an active player on game day. However, having Ingram up in Week 2 was also essential because to the injuries to Smoot, Solomon, and Johnson, which resulted in another inactive for Andreessen. However, with Baylon Spector in the starting lineup and Bernard expected to miss Week 3,
Projected inactives for the Bills include WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling and OT LB Ryan Van Demark Bernard Terrel, LB NCB Edefuan Ulofoshio Taron Johnson
Prediction: Bills 23, Jaguars 19
It is possible that this game is more of a grind than their opposing win-loss statistics suggest. The Jaguars are a talented defense team that might pose a different challenge to the Bills’ skill players in 2024 thanks to their run defense and man coverage. On film, the Jaguars defense appears to be a strong group. It might require longer drives and a greater reliance on the passing game than the Bills have demonstrated this year. The Bills have two players who can help lead the way in Kincaid and Shakir.
However, there seems to be a problem with the Jaguars offensive. This season’s offensive line issues have probably been the main cause of it. They should be able to move the ball against a Bills defense that is heavy on backups, but once the Jaguars cross midfield this Sunday, the Bills will resort to their traditional bend-but-don’t-break, whole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts approach on third downs. They ought to be able to keep the Jaguars’ point total in check as long as they can prevent rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. from making a huge play deep down the field for a touchdown. In the end, I believe the Bills have sufficient offensive firepower to penetrate the Jaguars’ defense for two touchdowns as well as a few more minor scoring drives, enough to secure a narrow victory.
(Top photo of James Cook: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
