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How the 49ers’ Investment in the Star Running Back Fits into Their Bigger Picture

CAPTAIN SANTA CLARA: Though no one involved wants to put it quite that way just yet, the San Francisco 49ers’ long-term plans are starting to come together in terms of players, money, and components.

The game of football is meant to be played in the here and now. To ensure that you avoid being bumped into yesterday, you must think that way today. However, athletes and teams must always plan ahead for the greater picture as well. This needs to be about both the now and the future. And so, to the 49ers in this bright springtime moment.

Is there still hope for the 49ers to win a Super Bowl? Yes, unless you genuinely think that losing to the best player of this age in overtime at Super Bowl 58 in February of last year signals the start of a serious decline. Will the Yorks have to spend more money to cover the escalating expenses of this all-star team? Yes, as of right now.

Are the 49ers taking the costly and challenging choices necessary to give themselves the best chance possible for the upcoming season as well as the following few years? We will see. They are trying, though. Over the past two weeks, we have seen that the 49ers are making an incredibly valiant effort to thread this needle.

“I know we’ve got a (Super Bowl) window this year,” Christian McCaffrey said on Tuesday after signing a new two-year, $38 million extension through the 2027 season that guarantees him $24 million. “That’s all I know. Focused on this year and taking it one day at a time, one week at a time, one year at a time.”

Of course, the McCaffrey trade is primarily about the future; the 49ers gain a very happy star tailback who is probably still in his prime as Brock Purdy enters his own; McCaffrey receives guarantees that he will be a highly paid member of this team through at least 2026 (before a non-guaranteed 2027 season). And all of this is connected, at least in part, to Brandon Aiyuk’s ongoing contract negotiations with the 49ers and the known fact that the team may easily terminate Deebo Samuel’s contract following the upcoming season.

It is completing the riddle. The equation is beginning to balance.

This season, Jed York, Paraag Marathe, John Lynch, and Kyle Shanahan have handled a few tasks, beginning with the release of Arik Armstead and continuing with Jauan Jennings’ new deal and the McCaffrey extension. Given the explosive growth of the wide-receiver market, they still need to reach an agreement with Aiyuk. They also know full well that they will have to pay Purdy a huge new contract in the upcoming offseason.

If the 49ers brass can pull it off, that is to be seen. In the upcoming years, we will see if it results in a Super Bowl victory. But this plan’s essential components are as obvious as they come. The well-known players are also able to observe it. Deebo can clearly see it: the 49ers may reasonably easily opt out of the three-year, $73.5 million contract he signed two summers ago during the upcoming offseason. When he signed it, there were no secrets about that, and there still are not any.

Nevertheless, Deebo has participated in every organized team activity (OTA) this season and was present when youngster Ricky Pearsall and guys from the depth of the roster, including Danny Gray, went through every drill at the required minicamp.

“I mean, at the end of the day, contract was signed,” Samuel said Tuesday. “And I know what I signed up for. We’re just focused on this year.”

That is football played with an eye toward the future and in the present tense. Armstead was asked to accept a significant wage reduction this offseason, but he declined. This was due to his injury, which kept him out of the lineup for a significant portion of the season for the second year in a row. Should Deebo’s inconsistent 2023 performance continue into this season, he will probably be traded or let go. If Deebo’s 2025 season is anything like his incredible 2021 campaign (during which he faced a similar contractual crossroads), he will be extremely wealthy in 2025, whether from the 49ers or another team.

Hence, Deebo was not very concerned when he heard the rumbling rumors during last April’s draft that the 49ers were considering trade offers for him.

“Yeah, I heard it,” Deebo said. “Had a conversation with my agent about it. They were going back and forth with it, whoever it was. It was a thing at first. But gonna move past it. We’re here, and we’re here to get better.”

Everyone gains if the 49ers win. They will all receive compensation if they win the Super Bowl. The 49ers are currently selecting the players who have the best chance of helping them win a Super Bowl this year and in the years to come.

Even though McCaffrey plays a position that has recently become less valuable to NFL clubs, he may be at the top of that list, right behind Purdy, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner, as he approaches his 28th birthday and logs 417 regular- and postseason touches last season. Imagine this 49ers attack without the tailback who scored 21 touchdowns in the regular season the previous year. Shanahan probably can’t.

Just pay attention to the coach’s response when I ask you what it is about McCaffrey that you think will keep him valuable long after he turns thirty.

“When you look at Christian as an individual, I’m not going to compare him to anybody else,” Shanahan said. “Christian is one of the more talented people I’ve ever been around in my life. But if I didn’t speak about that, I’d say he’s almost the biggest overachiever I’ve ever been around in my life. In terms of how obsessive he is of every little thing. …

“As you get older with age, you lose a step or something. That’s not what makes Christian great. He is the same player down-in and down-out. And yeah, it’s great to have all the talent that he does have. And he takes care of his body as good as anyone. So you don’t picture him losing any of that because of that (30) number. But if that stuff does happen, Christian’s always going to be a good football player. Until he decides not to be.”

So for now and into the future, McCaffrey, Purdy, and Aiyuk—assuming he signs at some point this summer—are the cornerstones of this offense. Perhaps Jennings and Pearsall will end up on that roster. Bosa and Warner will play defense, and the 49ers will evaluate their younger guys. And then there are those mainstays and studs who are essentially year-to-year players: Kyle Juszczyk, Trent Williams, George Kittle, Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave, and most likely Williams himself.

However, the 49ers have the money to cover this and the players are worth it.

“I really appreciate the players on the team,” McCaffrey said. “Anytime you sign an extension, obviously you’re individually really happy. But also have to think about the other guys on the team who helped you get there and who are a big part of your individual success.

“Just an overall great organization. Takes care of their players. I’ve had nothing but an amazing experience in my time here. I’m really fired up that I’m staying.”

How long is the 49ers window open for the Super Bowl? Saying that it will remain open for as long as Jed York pays to keep it that way would be oversimplified because there are always a few more moving parts. However, given this range of skill, it is also not entirely incorrect.

(Photo of Christian McCaffrey at Tuesday’s news conference announcing his extension: Tony Avelar / AP)

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