GREENBERG (5-2 last week, 24-16 overall): I’m a little surprised I went 3-0 in the NFL, especially considering I passed on the “easy” bets involving my teams—the Bears and Steelers. Not sure if I overestimated the Jaguars and Raiders or underestimated Chicago and Pittsburgh, but it’s probably a bit of both.
But a win is a win! (I’m 11-3 over the last two weeks, no big deal.) I definitely didn’t think the Bills were going to pull through late Monday night, but somehow, they survived.
Let’s change things up and talk NFL first because I can’t imagine how hyped Cleveland is for the ALCS. I mean, the Battle for Ohio. Did they cancel school? Is Deshaun Watson the most unpopular athlete in Cleveland history now? Has he overtaken José Mesa yet?
Perfect timing for Joe Burrow to roll into town and attempt to win a game there. I hit on the Bengals last week in the Meadowlands, and while I know their defense has to step up, if Burrow can’t win in Cleveland this time, he might as well retire and bartend in Athens. Maybe I’m biased against the Browns from reading you and Jason Lloyd, but give me the Bengals at -5.5.
JACKSON (4-3, 20-20): Burrow has never won in Cleveland. Honestly, it feels like I’ve never won an NFL pick lately, at least not since Burrow was in high school.
I’ll take the under 41.5 in Browns-Bengals. The Browns will play defense, and it’s going to be a grind. I’m going to ride this Browns unders wave until it crashes. As for your Watson question, let’s just say this situation is about as fun as it looks. I’m curious to see the crowd’s reaction on Sunday.
That’s my only Athens, Ohio, pick for the week. Though I’m tempted to take our alma mater, Ohio University, +4 in a revenge spot at Miami Ohio, it just missed my final cut.
I’ve been awful at NFL picks, but I’ll take Seattle +3 in what should be a high-scoring game. I’m also on the Niners at -1.5. The Chiefs are probably winning the Super Bowl again, but I think they’re due for a loss right now.
GREENBERG: I’m not feeling great about the board this week—nothing is jumping out at me. Road favorites went 9-0 last week, and the Bengals are one of six this week. Of the others, the only one I feel confident taking is the Chargers -2.5 at Arizona on Monday Night Football. I don’t love betting against the Steelers, but if I did, I’d go with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams -2 over the quarterback mess in Pittsburgh.
Other than that, I’ll stick with two near pick-’em home teams: the Niners -1.5 against the Chiefs (agreeing with you) and the Vikings -1.5 over the Lions in an NFC North brawl. I originally liked Detroit, but I flipped. I’m curious to see how they do without Aidan Hutchinson. Should be fun.
Let’s talk college now. Who do you like this week? I bet you’re taking the under in Bowling Green-Kent State, right?
JACKSON: Of course! Bowling Green might be using its backup—or even third-string—quarterback. Plus, it’s the week before their big rivalry with Toledo, which is like Auburn-Alabama but with more parking lot brawls. I’ll take under 55.5 all day.
UCF is regressing despite having a ton of offensive talent. Their defense ranks 96th in EPA (expected points added) against the pass, which is terrible news against an Iowa State team that ranks in the top 20 in EPA per pass. I’m on Iowa State -13.
I’m also taking Kentucky-Florida under 43. This Kentucky defense is legit, but the rest of the team is a mess. Florida has been better than expected but lost QB Graham Mertz. I think this game ends 17-16, either way.
And Friday night, I’m autoplaying Purdue +27.5. Oregon’s coming off a huge win and flying across the country on a short week. Hold your nose and bet it.
GREENBERG: I can’t bring myself to bet on Purdue, but I see the logic. I’m curious how many Oregon fans will make it to West Lafayette. I was with two Ducks fans for dinner, but I think the rest of their crew died of dysentery. Should be a fun game for Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel—he might have been in Drew Brees’ recruiting class. Or was it Bob Griese’s?
I’ll join you on that Bowling Green-Kent under 55.5 and take Army -15.5 over East Carolina. The Pirates are coming off a 55-24 loss to Charlotte (which is a 17-point underdog to Navy, by the way).
We know Vanderbilt’s legit after knocking off Alabama and Kentucky, but can they beat a MAC team by four touchdowns? I’m saying yes: Vanderbilt -25.5 over Ball State.
Finally, we need to pick a game people will actually watch. Give me Georgia-Texas over 55.5. I got burned on the total last week in Oklahoma-Texas, so I think we deserve some points this time.
JACKSON: I’ll take Georgia moneyline +165. Who has Texas really played?
(Not afraid to be wrong!)
I’m also leaning Northern Illinois -3 at home over Toledo. I’m not sure what happened in that Buffalo game a few weeks ago, but NIU might be the best team in the MAC by a long shot.
GREENBERG: I won’t tell Matt Eberflus or Nick Saban you’re betting against their Rockets.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Quinn Ewers: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
