With the news that quarterback Jordan Love would be “holding in” while the organization continues to negotiate a new contract, the Green Bay Packers began training camp on Monday. Love engaged with coaches and players at practice and took part in team events this summer, but he and his agency do not want to take any chances at this time.
With a potentially record-breaking new deal in the works, it makes sense to avoid taking a chance on an injury. Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars is the most recent quarterback to establish new wage records with a five-year, $275 million contract that included a $37.5 million signing bonus and $200 million guaranteed. Lawrence’s $55 million average yearly value is the most in NFL history, tied with Joe Burrow, quarterback of the Cincinnati Bengals.
It is unclear if Love will be able to reach Lawrence’s figures, but it is certain that agent David Mulugheta will at least bring him close. Is Love worth it? is the question that has been hanging over us. Such a big deal would seem to be a risk for Green Bay given that he has only made 18 career starts, with only the last half of those really being exceptional (his final 10 games of the previous season, including the playoffs: 2,667 yards passing, 68.7 completion percentage, 21 touchdown passes, three interceptions, 108.2 QB rating, 7-3 record).
Will Love’s pay be what he expects because of the small sample size? This query was posed as part of The Athletic’s sixth annual agent poll, in which a number of agents participated anonymously and answered a range of topics. This is their perspective on the matter. (The whole agent survey will be made available in August.)
According to one agency, Love has demonstrated his worth enough.
“He’ll get paid,” the agent said. “Love is young and has been in that building for several years. He showed that the playoff stage wasn’t too big for him and never complained about sitting. I can’t see why they wouldn’t make him the highest-paid quarterback or close to it.”
Some others questioned if the sample size was sufficient.
“The Packers are in a tough spot,” one agent said. “We know Love sat behind (Aaron) Rodgers for years, but there are not many games to examine. The Packers should protect themselves with any new contract. Pretty scary.”
“My thought: Two years with an average of $45 million — fully guaranteed,” another agent suggested. “This gives the team more time to evaluate and Love a quick chance at another contract.”
Another brought out the agent and team’s starkly differing points of view.
“As the agent, I’m fighting for $55 million annually,” the agent said, referencing the bar Lawrence and Burrow have set. “As the team, I haven’t seen enough. People were questioning Love not long ago.”
Everyone agreed that teams would just have to accept the fact that they will have to pay top quarterback market value.
“There’s a lack of exposure, starts and experience — none of that matters at this position,” one agent said. “No players have leverage like quarterbacks. Even if you might have an answer, you pay them.”
Another added: “What’s Plan B for the Packers? Green Bay has time on their side if needed with franchise tags. As for the agent mentality, the longer you wait, the more the team will pay.”
Another agent disagreed on the Packers having time on their side.
“I didn’t think he was the guy in the first half of last season,” the agent said. “The rest of the season, Love was impressive. This season, we’ll see what he is. The issue is that Green Bay might be unable to wait on a new contract. The agent should press now. The team should be worried this might be another Kyler Murray scenario where a team pays big too early.”
In other words, another agent told me that the big deal is coming, sample size or not.
“The number of starts doesn’t matter from the player/agent angle,” the agent said. “Love will have the highest AAV once a deal gets done.”
(Photo: Dan Powers / USA Today)
