It is difficult to forecast where the New York Mets (18-18) will finish in the standings after 36 games. Would it be shocking if they dropped a couple of games short of.500? Most likely not. Is it unexpected if they managed to finish a couple of games above.500? Most likely not. The Mets may need to address a pressing issue in order to achieve the latter, as well as figure out how to effectively utilize their rotation once they have assembled a full roster.
In the second round of our mailbag, we examine the Mets’ struggles to prevent other teams from stealing bases and talk about what kind of rotation they should have.
Why can’t the Mets do a freaking thing to STOP ALL THE STOLEN BASES??? — The Entire Fan Base
Tim Britton: Following a weekend series sweep in which the Mets gave up 10 steals, many readers naturally wanted to know how New York will stop the madness on the basepaths.
The Mets had given up 52 stolen bases in 55 tries as of Wednesday. Despite the amount, that was tied for the fewest caught stealings and was 14 more steals than any other team has allowed. Reaching such mix is challenging.
Let us examine some potential justifications.
Do the Mets simply keep creating opportunities for themselves to steal bases?
The walk rate in the majors is highest in New York. Could that simply indicate that opponents have more opportunities to steal bases?
Nope. This season, the Mets have thrown fewer pitches in typical base-stealing situations (a runner on first without a runner on second) than just six other teams.
Are the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, two clubs that have a penchant for stealing, the only teams the Mets play against?
In order to determine this, I compared the on-base percentages of the teams the Mets had faced thus far to those of every other team on their schedule. The Reds, for example, have stolen 62 bases in 36 games this season, with seven of those steals occurring in three games against the Mets. In their matchup with New York, their “anticipated steals” would be (62-7)/(36-3), or 1.67 thefts and 0.33 caught steals per game. You would expect them to go 5-for-6 in three games as opposed to 7-for-7.
By this criterion, through the first 36 games of the Mets schedule, the typical club would have allowed 25 bases (with seven CS). With half the outs, the Mets have given up twice as many steals.
Actual steals v. expected steals
| Opponent | Actual SB | Actual CS | Expected SB | Expected CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | |
| 2 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | |
| 7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | |
| 3 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | |
| 3 | 0 | 1.9 | 1 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | |
| 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
During their four-game series with the Mets, the Cubs were 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts. Out of 34 games, Chicago is 12 for 20 against the opposition.
It’s not just the schedule.
How much of this is a result of missing Francisco Alvarez?
The math suggests a lot.
I dissected the identical steals against the Mets by catcher using a projected versus actual steals chart. This is where things start to get interesting:
Comparing actual and anticipated thefts by C
| Player | Actual SB | Actual CS | Expected SB | Expected CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0 | 10.6 | 2.2 | |
| 30 | 0 | 8.4 | 2.6 | |
| 12 | 3 | 5.7 | 2.4 |
In his 13 starts, Alvarez did let teams go 10-for-10, which did not seem all that good. But he was the one facing the scorers more frequently from Cincinnati and Milwaukee, and his performance was far more in line with what other teams had given up against those opponents. Teams have used Omar Narváez in particular at a far higher volume than they do on a regular basis.
However, there is a complicating issue at play here: other teams become more aggressive as word spreads. Even if Alvarez had been healthy, there is a good chance that the team would have faced more efforts against the Mets because they had not demonstrated that they could slow down the running game in the first few games of the season. This seems to be the reason why Tomás Nido is up against the stolen-base figures as well.
So what’s the solution?
No one is present. The Mets need to improve on a number of smaller fronts that will mitigate this little disadvantage but not completely remove it. Although Alvarez’s powerful arm should eventually return, New York’s pitchers need to give their catchers a chance. That includes pitching over for the third time and risking a balk, but also cutting down on walks to put runners on, occasionally getting to the plate sooner, and adjusting the length of time between pitches. This narrative by Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans, in my opinion, did a good job of outlining the different approaches (as well as any potential drawbacks). The Diamondbacks present a compelling counter-illustration.
The return of front-end pitcher Kodai Senga, along with David Peterson and Tylor Megill in varying states of rehabilitation, should provide the Mets with an excess of starting pitching, primarily back-end talent. Which of the current and soon-to-be available starters might support the pen in a later inning and/or swingman role? How does a July five-man rotation look to you? Does the excess have any trading value? — James O.
Will Sammon: Considering the days off in the schedule, the Mets might occasionally still try to use a six-man rotation, or at least a variation of it, even with Senga. Thus, assuming everyone is fit, Senga, Christian Scott, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Buttó might be in order of rotation.
But there are a lot of “ifs” added to that list, along with a few other inquiries about Megill and Peterson. It would be difficult to remove Buttó if he pitches well before Megill returns. Manaea only walked one during his previous start, so if walks are still a problem, will he eventually follow Adrian Houser to the bullpen? With a two-year guarantee, Manaea offers the Mets an incentive to get the most out of him. How successful are Megill and Peterson going to be?
From a pure “stuff” perspective, Houser rates as the worst of the group on the bubble, multiple evaluators said, and he also has some experience as a reliever and in a hybrid role.
Megill has another rehab appointment set for this weekend, and on May 27, both Senga (who has not started rehab yet) and Peterson (who has) can be taken off the injured list. Senga might require more time than that, as it is still more than three weeks away. A great deal will occur. Many things are subject to change. Indeed, though, the Mets might have extra that they can deal with. It is important to remember that Megill, Peterson, and Buttó are all potential options for the minors in the near future. It is possible that any one of the three or a combination of them may come out of the bullpen, but relieving someone of their workload is easier than building them back up to be a starter.
TB: Additionally, coming out of the bullpen does not always need playing a typical relief role. I am speculating here, but Manaea’s role for San Francisco last season as a kind of piggyback reliever may serve as a model for rotating starters while maintaining the pen healthy.
Is Reed Garrett’s start sustainable? — Holden W.
WS: Garrett does not have a proven track record, but his tools have improved; his offensive strategy and arsenal have changed from past seasons when he had trouble making teams.
Reed Garrett’s 2Ks in the 8th. pic.twitter.com/hdARoGAZ0C
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2024
A few people are worried. Batters will adjust. Furthermore, Garrett’s walk rate of 12 percent might overtake him. Will his ERA be less than 1.00 at the end of the season? That does not seem plausible.
Although Garrett’s success is expected to continue, his real stuff is limiting hard contact while piling up whiffs. A big asset is his split-finger, which he can use to throw in the strike zone. With multiple quality pitches, Garrett has a repertoire fit for a starter. It looks like the Mets have developed a useful pitcher; the question now is which role will best suit him and benefit the team. Thus far, Garrett’s filling in as a reliever when needed has proven to be effective.
TB: Garrett’s innings rate needs to decrease. He has not thrown more than 60 in a season since 2018, although he is now on track to toss over 80 pitches out of the pen.
Given that a couple different front offices have declined to give Mark Vientos a significant run in the majors, is it safe to say there’s something(s) about him that evaluations don’t like? — Matt A.
WS: With J.D. Martinez hogging the majority of the playing time at designated hitter, Pete Alonso firmly established at first base, and Brett Baty given the opportunity to remWS: With J.D. Martinez hogging the majority of the playing time at designated hitter, Pete Alonso firmly established at first base, and Brett Baty given the opportunity to remain at third base, he just does not fit on the Mets roster. For Vientos, defense is still up in the air. Reliability at the plate against right-handed pitching is also important. But now that he is 24 years old, it is time to give him a shot at the major league level, whether it is in New York or somewhere else. Right now, there are no opportunities for him to get the kind of playing time that a player his age needs; he will not be left sitting on the bench.ain at third base, he just does not fit on the Mets roster. For Vientos, defense is still up in the air. Reliability at the plate against right-handed pitching is also important. But now that he is 24 years old, it is time to give him a shot at the major league level, whether it is in New York or somewhere else. Right now, there are no opportunities for him to get the kind of playing time that a player his age needs; he will not be left sitting on the bench.
(Photo of Lars Nootbaar stealing second base ahead of Jeff McNeil’s tag: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
