By winning on Sunday, the Braves and Mets can secure a postseason berth and evade a rematch in Atlanta on Monday.
The Diamondbacks can be eliminated Sunday or force the Mets to fly to Georgia.
Or perhaps none of the aforementioned events will occur on Sunday because, of course, they won’t.
In any case, none of the four Wild Card Series matches, which start in just two days, are decided with just one day left in the season — for 30 of the 32 clubs, at least.
Do you think that is wild enough? Hopefully! Before the last Sunday of the regular season, let us take a look at each scenario.
The National League wild-card derby
Unbelievably, there were still eight conceivable outcomes on Sunday. The Braves are in if they win on Sunday, and that is the most crucial thing to keep in mind. However, even if the Diamondbacks and Mets both win, they will not automatically advance. These represent all eight potential choices:
Win by the Braves, Mets, and Diamondbacks—In that scenario, the Braves secure a postseason berth, but the Mets and Diamondbacks race is effectively deadlocked. Thus, at least one game of Monday’s makeup doubleheader between the Mets and Braves would still need to be played. The Mets are in if they win Game 1. There would be a second game if they lost. Stated differently, the Mets would still have to win one game out of the two games in order to move on.
Losses for the Braves, Mets, and Diamondbacks The preceding scenario is exactly what happens if all three lose. The Braves secure a position. To secure their berth in the makeup doubleheader, the Mets would need to win at least one of the games.
If the Diamondbacks lose and the Braves and Mets win, they are eliminated and there will not be any games in Atlanta on Monday. The Braves, who are locked in as the fourth seed, would play the Padres, who are the No. 5 seed in the National League. The third-seeded Brewers would be the team the Mets would face as the sixth seed.
In this scenario, the Braves clinch but still have to visit the Mets on Monday. Braves and Diamondbacks win, but Mets lose. The Diamondbacks would then advance if the Braves defeated the Mets in Game 1 on Monday. If the Mets win on Monday in Game 1, it will be decided in Game 2 whether the Mets or Diamondbacks advance.
If the Braves triumph, but the Mets and Diamondbacks fall, the scenario described above will occur. There will either be a Game 2 or the Mets must play and win Game 1 on Monday.
The Braves lose, the Mets and Diamondbacks win, and it is practically a chaotic situation. The doubleheader’s two games would need to be played on Monday. The victor of Game 1 is in. To move on, the loser of Game 1 would need to play and win Game 2. The Diamondbacks advance if the team that loses in Game 1 is swept.
Mets win, but Braves and Diamondbacks lose — Then the Diamondbacks are eliminated, and there are no games Monday. The Braves would be the No. 5 seed, and the Mets would be the No. 6 seed, because the Braves hold the tiebreaker.
There is only one way the Diamondbacks can win today: if they win, the Braves and Mets will both lose. By then, they would have amassed 89 victories, forcing the Mets to take a plane to Atlanta and win both games on Monday. The Braves would advance and the Mets would be eliminated if they won both games.
You are done there. You get it? The only thing we are certain of is that the Phillies and Dodgers will both receive byes in this round because they are the top two seeds in the National League. Everything else is completely unknown.
Braves-Padres, with three games in San Diego, and Mets-Brewers, with three games in Milwaukee, are the most likely NL Wild Card Series pairings. However, nothing regarding this race has been labeled by “likely.” In theory, we should know by Sunday night, but in practice, it probably means we will not find out until Monday night.
The American League wild-card scenarios
According to what we currently know, the Yankees and Guardians have byes because they are the first and second seeds, respectively. The third and fourth seeds are the Astros and Orioles. They will thus host all three AL Wild Card Series games, but they will be up against an opponent.
The Royals and Tigers, though, are another story. These are the final two wild-card clubs, although we are still unsure of which squad is ranked fifth and which sixth. This is how it might proceed.
Tigers win Sunday — Then they’re the No. 5 seed and head for Baltimore.
Royals lose Sunday — Then they’re the No. 6 seed and head for Houston.
Tigers and Royals both lose Sunday — The Tigers are still the No. 5 seed.
The only situation in which the Royals would be the No. 5 seed is if the Tigers lose and the Royals win. Detroit and Kansas City would both end the season with 86-76 records. However, the Royals have the tiebreaker because of their August 4 season series victory over Detroit, which was secured by a three-run rally in the ninth inning. Even though the Tigers were a vastly different club back then, if Sunday’s game goes as planned, they might still be plagued by the ghosts of their past selves.
(Photo: David J. Griffin / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
