What a crazy week it has been for NASCAR. Our NASCAR reporters have written extensively about the intense drama and controversy that greeted the Cup Series after its Olympic hiatus at Richmond Raceway. We will go into further detail here as well, asking questions about what comes next and whether the league took any lessons from the incident.
The third-to-last race before the playoffs is scheduled for this week in Michigan, where the Cup Series will be competing. Will the Ford and Chevy teams benefit from home-state advantage? Our analysts, Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck, analyze the major NASCAR plotlines, odds, and long shots and favorites for Sunday’s race at the FireKeepers Casino 400.
The FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway is set for Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET and broadcasts on USA.
Let’s get into it!
It is imperative that we inquire about the conclusion at Richmond, as Austin Dillon purposefully caused damage to Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano in order to secure the victory. Although Dillon was docked 25 points and his playoff status was revoked on Wednesday, NASCAR still permitted him to preserve the victory. After the news, Jeff wrote, it was the right decision. However, do we now know when aggressive racing crosses the line into a penalty?
Jeff:For the time being at least, it is still unclear. Elton Sawyer of NASCAR said that Dillon was penalized due to the “totality” of his actions, but he would not elaborate on why exactly. This is partially due to the Richard Childress Racing judgment still being appealed. Even after the appeals process is over, though, I doubt we will have a clear understanding of what is and is not acceptable. It does not need to be explained because all drivers already know what is acceptable and what exceeds the line, according to Sawyer, a former driver himself. Though I doubt the justification will hold up the next time there is a contentious conclusion, at least we now know that there is a minimal criterion that
Jordan:There was no distinct boundary prior to Dillon’s victory at Richmond, and it still isn’t. The good news is that there is a standard in place that requires NASCAR to make difficult decisions when necessary. Moving forward, it is imperative that NASCAR maintains consistency in its response to coercion. It has long been a source of frustration for the garage staff that there is inconsistent refereeing; in fact, drivers frequently do not know what counts as a penalty and what doesn’t.
Do you expect further fallout from the Richmond drama, or will drivers get on to racing as usual in Michigan? Will we see more desperate racing as the playoffs loom?
Jeff:Yes, I would agree that there will eventually be repercussions. Whether Dillon received a fine or not, his irresponsible driving eliminated Logano and Hamlin’s chances of winning that particular race. Logano is unlikely to forget that quickly and will probably exact revenge at some time, with Hamlin likely to follow suit with more surgical precision. Having said that, Dillon does not usually go for the lead (he had not led a lap all season prior to Sunday), so I am not sure how many opportunities these guys will have this year to exact some sort of revenge. Since Dillon is no longer even a playoff driver, they will not want to ruin their playoff run by getting into a fight with him. However, in
Jordan: Getting even with Dillon is not the most essential thing for either Logano or Hamlin to worry about. They are, after all, title contenders, and Dillon is very definitely not. Because of this, Logano and Hamlin have a lot more to lose, so both of them should easily defeat Richmond. Anything they do will only hurt their chances of winning the titles.
It appears that the tire change in Richmond was a huge hit with you and a lot of other people. Is this the future of NASCAR racing, or are there any disadvantages that we are overlooking?
Jeff:Based on what we witnessed at Richmond, having variable tire compounds, similar to Formula 1, would be a winning strategy for NASCAR. Though there is still a long way to go in creating those, Goodyear and NASCAR may decide to just send a softer tire and use it as the primary rubber for the race (instead of bringing an additional choice). In either case, the ultimate objective is to make tires matter once more because doing so gives drivers more passing opportunities and gives them the choice to either race aggressively or more cautiously, saving more rubber for later in the run.
Jordan: Teams must have access to more than two sets of option tires if they are to become a standard feature. If not, crew chiefs everywhere will rapidly develop a comparable schedule for when to use the soft tires, essentially eliminating any potential strategic advantages.
What are you looking forward to most at Michigan this week?
Jeff:Now that Fontana has passed away (rest in peace, you beautiful person), NASCAR just has one two-mile oval left. It is unfortunate because Michigan and Fontana both host fantastic races with the Next Gen vehicle. We have Michigan, at least. After two thrilling and pleasurable Next Gen races—Chris Buescher’s victory in the previous season and Kevin Harvick’s penultimate career victory in 2022—there is a hint of an amazing show there. With the Next Gen vehicle, I really enjoy these large courses, and Sunday promises to be a great test of strength before the playoffs.
Jordan: With only one racing weekend left in Michigan, teams sponsored by Ford and Chevrolet will only get one chance to make an impression in the backyard of their corporate headquarters. This is significant—very significant. Additionally, Toyota gets the opportunity to challenge Ford and Chevrolet on their home ground. Because of all of this, Michigan is one of the season’s most underappreciated major races.
Who do you think is most likely to win it?
Jeff: This week, I am going to take a risk and choose Bubba Wallace (+2200). Two years ago, he had the opportunity to win at Michigan but ended up second. The previous season, he possessed early race speed but was overtaken by strategy. Not only has he led at least 20 laps in the previous two races held there, but he has also finished in the top 15 in the Cup Series at Michigan four times in a row (including a pole) and won the Truck Series in 2017. Why is that relevant? Wallace understands that Michigan is a site where both he and his cars will have speed, and he performs best when he is confident.
Jordan: Wallace’s 23XI Racing teammate Tyler Reddick is well overdue for his second victory of the year. In addition to entering the race on a six-race winning run in which he finished sixth or better, Reddick also leads the series in top-five and top-10 finishes and trails only championship points leader Kyle Larson by five points. In order for Reddick to receive the same kind of attention as Larson, he must win more. Michigan offers him a fantastic opportunity to accomplish that.
Which extended shots are you choosing? Who is a solid bet to win on Sunday and secure a postseason berth if they have not won yet?
Jeff:Wallace may be considered a long shot, but the odds on Alex Bowman and Ross Chastain (both +3000) are competitive, with Chastain needing a victory to go to the postseason. Josh Berry (+6600) and Kyle Busch (+3500) have a rather steep decline, and I would be very hesitant to go any lower than Busch. I apologize for being mistaken about my upset prediction last week, but if you want to take a risk on a team that is really motivated to make the playoffs, there is always a potential of a fuel mileage race or even a rain-shortened fluke win at Michigan.
Jordan: Ty Gibbs is one of the drivers with the highest odds (+2000) for a quality team (Joe Gibbs Racing), and he has come very near to winning his first race of the season multiple times this year. Given that Michigan is a course that is favorable to teams like JGR, Gibbs’ victory on Sunday would not be all that shocking.
Odds for FireKeepers Casino 400 winner
Odds, via BetMGM, update live.
Further reading
Denny Hamlin on GOATs, post-driving future, long-ago altercation with Bubba Wallace: 12 Questions
Jon Wood Q&A: Wood Brothers Racing president on hiring Josh Berry, taking on a new role, and disbeliefs
Jon Wood Q&A: Wood Brothers Racing president on hiring Josh Berry, taking on a new role, and disbeliefs
(Photo of Bubba Wallace: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
