It took some time for Jerod Mayo to find an offensive coordinator. He spoke with twelve candidates. A few declined the job.
After being convinced by the veteran coach’s ambitions to revamp the Patriots’ strategy and his ability to manage a rookie quarterback, he finally decided on Alex Van Pelt.
We’ve talked plenty (and will continue to) about Drake Maye’s development. But what will the offense look like functionally (regardless of the quarterback)?
Van Pelt stated that the playbook and scheme of the squad will be heavily influenced by his four years of experience as head coach Kevin Stefanski’s (non-play-calling) offensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns.
Although it has elements of several different schemes, Stefanski’s attack is primarily based on the Mike Shanahan model. In Minnesota, Stefanski spent a lot of time learning from Gary Kubiak, whose mentor was Shanahan.
Following my coverage of Stefanski’s offense in Minnesota and extensive analysis of the data (all statistics sourced from TruMedia), I have identified four key aspects of the offense that Patriots supporters should be aware of.
No 👀@DrakeMaye2 | #NEPats pic.twitter.com/5R9q5wYJTX
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) May 30, 2024
1. The Patriots will run — a lot
Among the NFL’s most analytically inclined head coaches is Stefanski. However, the amount that his offense depends on rushing the ball is the one area in which it departs from the metrics. According to analytics, passes are usually more effective plays.
But in the four years Van Pelt was the Browns’ offensive coordinator, his unit ranked 29th in the NFL in early-down passing percentage, passing it just 51 percent of the time on first and second downs.
Rather, the offense relies on a zone rush assault, in which the running back finds a natural cut-back spot when linebackers overpursue, and the offensive line operates as a cohesive unit. The running game has been extremely successful in the manner that Stefanski and Van Pelt have taught it. During Van Pelt’s four seasons with the Browns, the team placed second in the league in terms of rushes exceeding ten yards.
2. Under-center play-action
Here’s where Stefanski really leans into analytics. On several occasions, he has cited studies that show — contrary to how coaches often talk — you don’t have to establish the run for play-action plays to be effective.
Because of this, even on early downs and in the early going of the game, his system depends heavily on play-action principles. During Van Pelt’s four years as offensive coordinator, the Browns placed fifth in both early-down and under-center play-action use last season.
Expect Van Pelt to talk a lot about “marrying the run and pass,” which essentially means he wants the team’s play-action passes to look similar to its running plays. The offense often asks the quarterback to roll out on a bootleg after the play-action fake and establish a new pocket.
This is why the footwork of the quarterback is crucial. Even without any other offensive players present, Stefanski would frequently stay late after practice to run his quarterback through drills that were specifically designed to improve his footwork. Thus, if Maye is acting in that way in August, do not be shocked.
Two more Maye-related notes. Scouts noted that he was adept at bootlegs, emphasizing his quickness and ability to throw on the run in that particular area. That works well with this plan. Though Maye will need to improve in this area after mostly playing from the shotgun in college, the Stefanski offense likes to keep the quarterback under center (the Browns ranked fourth in under-center use the last four years).
3. Heavy formations
This offense likes to make the opposing defense uncomfortable by passing out of formations that should favor a run and running out of formations that should favor a pass. Stefanski and Van Pelt are comfortable running out of a three-wide receiver set and passing out of a formation with only one wide receiver.
This offense does not frequently use spread schemes with multiple wide receivers. With one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers on the field, the 11 personnel grouping is the most widely used in the NFL. Nonetheless, the Browns, with Van Pelt as the OC, were 25th in the league in terms of using that combination. However, they employed more personnel than any other team—13 total—including one wide receiver, three tight ends, and a running back.
4. Deep passes
The offense Stefanski and Van Pelt run doesn’t just use play-action for the sake of using it. They like to take deep shots off it.
One of the fundamental ideas is a play that appears to be a run, but instead the quarterback bootlegs outside and executes a play fake to get back into the pocket before searching for one of the two receivers running deep crossing routes. Here’s an example of it from a play Stefanski called with Kirk Cousins finding Adam Thielen.
The offense, which has ranked 29th in the league in dropback percentage over the last four years, aims to locate deep shots in the passing game, and the analytics support that approach. Even yet, the Stefanski/Van Pelt-led offense finished second in the quantity of passing attempts beyond 15 yards, fifth in air yards per attempt, and seventh in the percentage of passes attempted beyond the first-down marker during that span.
That’s in part why the Patriots liked Maye so much as a fit for this scheme. They think he’s athletic enough to roll out of the pocket on the designed boots this offense likes and has the arm strength to hit the deep passes that the scheme so often relies on.
(Photo of Alex Van Pelt and Jacoby Brissett: Matt Stone / MediaNews Group / Boston Herald via Getty Images)
