NHL Eastern Conference playoff race: Seven teams, two spots and so much mediocrity.
In the Eastern Conference, seven clubs are fighting for the final two playoff slots. The Philadelphia Flyers are clinging to third place in the Metro, while four other teams are still vying for a wild-card spot. The Detroit Red Wings are also being pursued by the same four teams.
“Pursuing” might be too strong a word, though. Of the seven teams, the best record over a team’s last 10 games belongs to the Washington Capitals at 6-4-0 — which doesn’t exactly scream “We want this!”
Who then desires this? To find out why these clubs are still standing, why it’s been so difficult, and whether they can get out of the mushy center next season, we’ve broken down all seven teams in descending order of mediocrity. (The model used by Dom Luszczyszyn provided the playoff percentages.)
Philadelphia Flyers
35-26-9, 79 points
Playoff chances: 75 percent
Why they’re still in it: Their ability to play a quick transition game and their penalty kill were formerly their main weapons, but those have recently suffered, especially after they moved Sean Walker, their most reliable defenseman. Nevertheless, the Flyers have maintained third place in the division for the majority of the last two months by demonstrating their capacity to outwork opponents for extended periods of time while receiving contributions from their depth. Regardless matter who has been in the lineup, they have been able to bounce back fast from down nights.
Why they can get in: The schedule lightens considerably after the team’s matchup with the Rangers in New York on Tuesday; out of their last nine games, just two are against teams who are in contention for the playoffs: the season-ending matchup with the Capitals on April 16 and another game at Madison Square Garden on April 11. For that last push, they could also be able to bring back a few defenseman, including Nick Seeler, who was the fiercest, most vital member of the defensive group prior to his injury on March 5 and led the league in blocked shots.
Why they could miss: The defense is a complete mess. The Flyers used rookies Ronnie Attard and Adam Ginning together in their victory over Toronto on Tuesday. Older veterans like Marc Staal and Erik Johnson will also be needed until or unless Seeler, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Jamie Drysdale recover from their individual ailments. Their goalie has also been less than stellar lately. Prior to making a comeback against Toronto, No. 1 Samuel Ersson had been substituted out in two of his previous three games, and Felix Sandstrom, the backup, has never proven to be a reliable NHL-caliber goalie. Additionally, they must hope that captain Sean Couturier, who was benched by coach John Tortorella this week, doesn’t have any adverse effects in the dressing room.
Will they be here again next season: They most likely won’t be a Stanley Cup contender or a team that is considered a top-five pick, much as they were this season. The new front management has stated that their rebuild—yes, they’re still calling it that—will take a little longer, even though there may be some roster upheaval. Nevertheless, they’re happy with the foundation they’ve established with a new culture and a lot of their young players, like Tyson Foerster, Cam York, and Owen Tippett, making significant progress, playoffs or not.— Kevin Kurz
Detroit Red Wings
36-28-6, 78 points
Playoff chances: 40 percent
Why they’re still in it: Mainly because of their parade through January and February, going 16-5-2 to begin 2024. Between outstanding goaltending from Alex Lyon, and a lineup that managed to score with ease, the Red Wings built up an eight-point lead in this race by late February. So for them, still being “in it” is more of a testament to how dreadful their collapse has been in March — with Dylan Larkin out, they were a shell of the team they were before, and the bail-out performances in goal have dried up, too.
Why they can get in: Larkin returned on Thursday and with him back, Detroit’s lineup will finally be able to slot itself correctly again. He’s their best player and the engine that drives them, and getting him back should help to maximize Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane too.
Why they could miss: There are plenty of advanced numbers to suggest that the Red Wings were due for a collapse down the stretch, with or without Larkin, and this stretch, during which the goaltending has come back to earth, may be the manifestation of that. When healthy, the Red Wings can trade chances with opponents, but their team defense has a bad habit of asking far too much of its netminders.
Will they be here again next season: For a rebuilding team that seemed to be breaking through, you’d like to think this is an easy yes, but it may be a bit more murky than some Detroit fans want to admit. The Red Wings are going to have a hard time making any upgrades next season, with significant raises due for Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, putting them in a tricky spot with the salary cap. They also are likely going to need to find space for at least two rookies, and it’s possible there could be as many as three in Detroit’s lineup. While that should be exciting, it will also inevitably come with some rookie mistakes, and that makes it entirely possible the Red Wings actually see a slight step backward in 2024-25. — Max Bultman
Washington Capitals
33-26-9, 75 points
Playoff chances: 31 percent
Why they’re still in it: Spencer Carbery was not on anyone’s short list to contend for the Jack Adams Award as the NHL’s top coach — at least not when he was hired. But he’s proven to be the perfect fit for the Capitals, who last season sold at the trade deadline and needed a fresh voice for different players who would join an aging core that won the Cup in 2018. Carbery has instilled the Capitals with energy and enthusiasm while weathering Alex Ovechkin’s poor start, not to mention the loss of Nicklas Backstrom. A good coach can elevate a perceived mediocre roster, and Carbery has proven to be a tick above good in his first season with the Capitals.
Why they can get in: The Capitals are flawed. But of the East’s wild-card contenders, the Capitals have been the most consistent in overcoming those flaws.
Consistency matters for in a tight playoff chase. Now that they’re in a favorable position, there is no reason to think the Capitals, barring a big injury, are going to suddenly hit a skid. They’ve basically been the same team all season. Also, captain Alex Ovechkin is playing his best hockey over the past couple of months. That doesn’t hurt.
Why they could miss:On Tuesday, just five teams had a worse goal differential. That must eventually catch up to the Caps, right? After going on a 5-11-3 slump that seemed to kill their prospects of making the playoffs, the Capitals’ differential over 18 games was plus-9. Whether this current run is an exception and the Capitals revert to a club that doesn’t score enough points to offset opponents’ scoring or whether that tendency indicates that Carbery’s bunch has things figured out remains to be seen. They began the season 1-3-1 and have since seen downturns of 2-4-1, 1-4-2, and 2-6-1, demonstrating their susceptibility to slippage. They might be due because they haven’t experienced a setback since early February.
Will they be here again next season: General Manager Brian MacLellan stated that the future of the Capitals is what he is aiming for prior to the trade deadline. The next great Capitals team felt and looked like it would be at least a few years away coming into this season — almost as though there was a gap in time that matched Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record. Like the Penguins, they’re attempting to thread a narrow needle hole. Furthermore, there aren’t many prosperous instances of franchises that are both focused on the present and the future. — Rob Rossi
New York Islanders
29-25-15, 73 points
Playoff chances: 45 percent
Why they’re still in it: A winning run of six games from February 26 to March 10 coincided with a period of time when all the other teams in the vicinity were faltering. Naturally, their current six-game winning streak negates it, but it’s not like anyone is pulling away—the Islanders still have a chance, even after losing 6-3 in Detroit on Thursday. Kyle Palmieri has improved during the past month, and Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson have both had excellent seasons. Additionally, Mathew Barzal and Noah Dobson led the offensive during the winter, assisting in at least securing some points that have helped them stay afloat thus far.
Why they can make it: Ilya Sorokin has not been the same goalie who was the Vezina Trophy runner-up a season ago but he still has the potential to steal games, in theory. If he can do that a few times over the final 13, the Isles have just as good a case as any of these teams for a playoff berth. And during that six-game win streak, Patrick Roy’s methods seemed to finally sink in, at least temporarily. Maybe his team can get that mojo back somehow.
Why they can’t: This section could be 1,000 words. There’s the 15 blown two- and three-goal leads, there’s 22 blown third-period leads, there’s a league-worst penalty kill, a team that still allows too many high-danger chances and too many core players having very down seasons.
Will they be here again next season: Unless Lou Lamoriello finds a CBA loophole that allows him to void a few long-term deals, major changes seem almost impossible with this aging group. Being on the fringe of a playoff race in 2024-25 seems like a best-case scenario at the moment. — Arthur Staple
34-32-4, 72 points
Playoff chances: 3 percent
Why they’re still in it: The Devils have put together a season of mediocrity and are the beneficiaries of teams’ inability to pull away. There isn’t much hope left for the Devils — their odds to make the playoffs are under 10 percent — but there is a mathematical possibility. They’ll have to do something they haven’t done all year, though: put together a hot streak.
Why they can get in: The Devils addressed their goaltending at the trade deadline, bringing in Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen. Goaltending has been an issue for the team all season, and Allen brings stability. He has looked good through two starts. The team still has star-level talent, too, with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt at forward. Perhaps most importantly, Timo Meier has shown improvement since the coaching change.
Why they can’t: The math isn’t in their favor, plus the team has roster holes caused by injury (Dougie Hamilton and Joonas Siegenthaler are both out) and trades (Tyler Toffoli and Colin Miller are on the Jets now). But perhaps most importantly, the Devils have shown an inability to get hot and sustain momentum throughout the entire season. It’s hard to see that changing now.
Will they be here again next season: With a good offseason, Tom Fitzgerald can have this team in a better spot this time next year. The core pieces are there, and young defensemen Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes should take steps forward after promising but inconsistent rookie campaigns. Fitzgerald indicated he wants to go “big-game hunting” for a starting goaltender to play in front of Jake Allen, who has another year left on his contract. If the Devils address that need and have better health in 2024-25, the team could return to what it was during a successful 2022-23 regular season. — Peter Baugh
33-33-5, 71 points
Playoff chances: 2 percent
Why they’re still in it: The main reason is that the teams around them refuse to run away with it. Even after stumbling against the Red Wings last Saturday, the Sabres held onto slim odds because the Red Wings and Islanders lost the next day. They’ve gone 1-1 since then and will need to get more consistent scoring to string together enough wins to stay alive.
Why they can get in: The Sabres have played their best hockey of the season recently, which gives them an outside chance at staying in the race. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is giving them elite goaltending, and that could be enough to help them stack wins. They also still have another game against the Red Wings, as well as two games against the Capitals (both at home) and a game against the Devils. That gives them a chance to make up ground against some of the teams they’re chasing. Bowen Byram has been a major boost to the lineup, too. He’s helping Buffalo play with the type of pace that made them one of the best offensive teams in the NHL last season.
Why they can’t: The teams around the Sabres have games in hand, and Buffalo is already seven points back with 11 games to play. After playing at a 73-point pace in October, November and December, the Sabres probably dug too deep of a hole. The Sabres haven’t had a winning streak longer than three games all season. That will have to change if they’re going to put together the type of run necessary to pull off the unlikely. No team has ever come back from as many as nine points down through 64 games, which is where the Sabres were on March 8.
Will they be here again next season: The goal for the Sabres is to be in a better position at this time next year. With their defense and goaltending improving, Buffalo should be able to make a bigger playoff push the next season with only a solid comeback from their best players. Even if they have considerable salary space, they are still a young squad that may improve their performance by adding quality players to the roster. With so many young players holding important positions in the roster, they also have good reason to think that there is still room for greater internal improvement. — Matthew Fairburn
Pittsburgh Penguins
30-29-9, 69 points
Playoff chances: 5 percent
Why they’re still in it: Oh, they’re barely there now. In actuality, though, the Penguins have been a strong five-on-five club for the majority of the season thanks to their above-average goaltending from Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic. Sidney Crosby appears to be heating up again after a recent lull; this season, he has averaged more over a point per game. Even while it seems improbable right now, the Penguins are a prideful team, and their locker room is home to a branch of the Hockey Hall of Fame, so anything is possible.
Why they can make it: The Penguins are oddly healthy at the moment, as Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are close to playing all 82 games for a second consecutive season. The Penguins aren’t dealing with injuries to any major contributors at the time, and they still get to play many of the teams they’re chasing, including Washington, New Jersey, Detroit and the New York Islanders.
Why they can’t:
Will they be here again next season: That appears to be very likely. Because of Crosby’s refusal to allow it, the Penguins won’t completely collapse, and they won’t have to completely rebuild because almost half of their team genuinely has a full or partial no-movement clause. Basically, they’re dying a slow death, and Dubas has already made it clear that he intends to be active in the summer free agency market. They most likely won’t be a bad team the next season, but all signs point to them being in this group once more.—
