NHL Trade Deadline Aftermath: Unpacking the Impact of Player Moves on New Team Dynamics.
The Carolina Hurricanes are now a club to beat in the East after Jake Guentzel turned them from playoff contenders. Surprised, huh? With a 6-2-1 record since his debut, the best player on the market—who, on paper, appeared like a perfect fit for Carolina—is thriving and improving the club around him.
People speculate about which players might go during trade season and where they might fit in for weeks or months. After a few weeks have gone by since the deadline, allowing players time to get used to their new environments, let’s take a look at how well a select few players are integrating so far.
Jake Guentzel, Carolina Hurricanes
Guentzel has quickly established himself as a key member of the Hurricanes. He was kept off the scoreboard in his first game, but he bounced back to score in six of his following seven games, for a total of 12 points in nine games.
Even though Guentzel isn’t scoring goals as quickly as he usually does, he has quickly had a direct impact on his team’s score. In his minutes, Carolina is outscoring opponents 16-1 in all scenarios, with the winger contributing to 75% of those goals with a point.
Guentzel is most effective when playing five on five. His shot is a useful tool for the Hurricanes, as anticipated: He is producing a lot of
Guentzel is a clear fit on a dangerous top line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, which is getting support from a new-look second line. That combination is also benefitting from deadline acquisition Evgeny Kuznetsov, who seems to have revitalized his game in new surroundings, especially at five-on-five. The Hurricanes are much deeper heading into the playoffs, with two forward additions who bring the skill sets this roster craves. That complements their stout defense and improved goaltending with the return of Frederik Andersen, and should help the Hurricanes go on a deep run.
From the top forward available at the deadline to the top defenseman. While Boston or Tampa Bay seemed to be likely landing spots for Noah Hanifin, the Golden Knights swooped in.
In Vegas, Hanifin doesn’t have to be a No. 1 defender — Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore have that burden. Instead, he slots in as a No. 3 on the depth chart and deepens this team’s defense. Few teams have the matchup capabilities the Golden Knights just unlocked with this addition. He is already clicking with his new team.
In the playoffs, Hanifin seems like a natural fit with Pietrangelo to go up against top competition. Vegas has seen a snippet of what they can do in about 76 minutes of five-on-five so far. The pair has earned a 56 percent expected goals rate, with solid results to match.
Before the Golden Knights traded for Hanifin, Pietrangelo was just below break-even in expected goals, so this looks like an early upgrade for him already. He now has a partner who can make up for one area in which he lacks: controlled exits out of the defensive zone. That should be pivotal in matchup minutes against opponents’ best in the playoffs. The pairing subsequently shifts Alec Martinez to a third-pairing role, which may be fitting at this point, and bolsters the team’s depth.
With Pietrangelo sidelined for a few games, the coaches have gotten to see Hanifin excel in another combination as well. A Hanifin-Nicolas Hague pairing has rocked a 67 percent expected goals rate in just under 83 minutes thanks to stellar efforts on both ends of the ice. Knowing this combination works should give the coaches options in case the defense pairs need some adjustments in the postseason.
The San Jose Sharks were not a fit for Anthony Duclair. The winger’s game suffered due to his surroundings beyond the scoresheet. His shot volume and quality suffered, as did his rush game and passing. But a move to Tampa Bay seems to be exactly what he needed to get back on track.
Duclair has five goals and nine points through seven games with his new team, and the Lightning have outscored opponents 12-4 in his all-situation minutes. The margins are closer at five-on-five, which excludes his role on the top power-play unit and includes time on a second line with Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli, who struggled defensively. But a shift to the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, which came midway through Tampa Bay’s game against the New York Rangers, seems to be an ideal fit.
In less than five minutes of five-on-five ice time, the top line had an 11-4 edge in shot attempts, 10-1 in scoring chances, and 3-0 in goals. Since then, the trio has earned 67 percent of the expected goal share and outscored opponents 6-3.
Any player would benefit from playing alongside the dynamic duo of Kucherov and Point, but not everyone can complement top players. That’s something Duclair has had a knack for in years past, and his Florida Panthers tenure was a prime example of that. He isn’t built to be a driver of a line, but he can play a strong supporting role.
Kucherov and Point, outside of their short sample of time with Duclair, have only earned about 50 percent of the expected goals share this year. If Duclair can help change that, they’ll be even more dominant of a threat in their minutes than they already are.
Duclair won’t shoot 31 percent forever in Tampa Bay, but he is surrounded by a ton of talent at even strength and on the power play which should help sustain his success.
It’s tricky to talk about the Casey Mittelstadt deal in a vacuum, considering the return and another trade that essentially happened in tandem.
Before getting to Buffalo’s return in Bowen Byram, we’ll point to Colorado’s trade with the Philadelphia Flyers that brought back Sean Walker, who already looks like a very savvy addition, and shed Ryan Johansen’s contract. The 2C position has been a rotating door since Nazem Kadri’s departure. J.T. Compher stepped up last year, but Johansen fell far below expectations this year. Even when Ross Colton stepped up in the lineup, the middle six still lacked. And that’s exactly why the team brought in Mittelstadt.
In a short period, Mittelstadt already looks like a clear upgrade down the middle of the second line over Johansen, and his all-three-zone play has a lot to do with it. That was a strength for him in Buffalo all season, especially his playmaking. That’s an element the second line has been missing, seeing as that aspect of Johansen’s game did not rebound in Colorado. Plus he brings the speed Johansen lacked to keep up with the Avalanche’s pace.
The Avalanche have earned about 56 percent of the expected goals share in his minutes. While the team has been solid defensively in his minutes, he has been a real plus offensively, too. If he can keep that up, he should keep showing his true value in Colorado, whereas there were some concerns back in Buffalo that his scoring was a bit inflated and unsustainable. Having solid winger support only helps his case, which should be some combination of Artturi Lehkonen, Jonathan Drouin and Valeri Nichushkin down the stretch.
Colorado did an effective job upgrading its depth at the deadline, and Mittelstadt is an extension of that.
Going back to Buffalo in the Mittelstadt trade was Bowen Byram, who made an instant impact with his new team. The defender kicked off his Sabres tenure with a two-point game against the Nashville Predators before scoring another pair of goals two games later against Detroit.
But it hasn’t all been smooth sailing, and last Thursday’s performance against the Edmonton Oilers was a prime example. In Byram’s five-on-five minutes, Buffalo was out-attempted 27-17 and outchanced 19-6. There is a huge gap in star power between the Oilers and Sabres, but take his play against Detroit in a crucial game a few days prior. The Red Wings had a 19-12 edge in shot attempts and 8-4 in scoring chances with Byram deployed.
Through nine games, the Sabres have outscored opponents 11-10 with Byram on the ice, but have fallen below break-even in expected goals.
It’s not that the Byram addition won’t work out. Some of the underlying numbers are just a reality check that pairs with the flash and scoring he brought off the bat. This deal hinges more on his potential in the long run versus what he brings right now, and it likely will take a minute for Byram to adjust to this new top-pair role and his new team. The Sabres have seen glimpses of that potential — from how well his breakout ability pairs with Dahlin’s puck retrievals to the movement he adds to a stagnant power play.
Last Sunday, Byram showed how much he can help his team tilt the ice as well, helping the Sabres earn 14 scoring chances over the Flames while conceding only four. He thrived against the Red Wings in his third game with the Sabres, too.
The key will be finding a more consistent level. When Byram does that, the hype around Buffalo’s young, skilled blue line will amp up.
Sean Walker, Colorado Avalanche
When looking at impactful deadline additions, circling back to Sean Walker is a must. Colorado faced a few key questions when it acquired the defender. The first was how he would look outside of the Flyers system since he doesn’t have a long track record of playing with a team this high caliber. The second was whether his size and skill set could potentially be too similar to what the Avalanche already have and whether that would work in a postseason environment.
While there is only so much to draw from eight games, it has been a super encouraging sample so far. The fit looks to be pretty seamless, with Walker thriving on both ends of the ice. In Colorado, he can keep playing his rover-like style, which Jared Bednar has experience coaching. He adds another element of mobility to their defense, which helps maintain their speed game through each line and pair — and that has been true in his minutes both with Jack Johnson and Samuel Girard. It has boosted Colorado’s offensive creation with him on the ice, which generally lines up with the Avs’ bottom-nine forwards.
And the team has limited quality chances in Walker’s minutes, even when going up against other contenders. His play against the Oilers was a prime example of that; in a thriller matchup, Colorado had a 15-4 scoring chance advantage in his five-on-five minutes.
With Walker in the fold — along with Mittelstadt, plus Brandon Duhaime and Yakov Trenin — the Avalanche have only leaned further into their strengths, which should challenge opponents through what will likely be a challenging postseason in the Western Conference.
Steady goaltending and shooting luck? Winnipeg has already been quite different than New Jersey for Tyler Toffoli.
At his best, Toffoli is an effective scoring chance generator and goal scorer. That’s exactly what the Jets are seeing right now. The process isn’t that much different for the winger in his new surroundings: His shot rate and quality are similar at five-on-five, but now he is converting more often.
Thus far, he appears to complement Winnipeg’s dual threat Nikolaj Ehlers, who can create his own scoring opportunities while putting Toffoli in position to succeed with deft passes. Between the two is Sean Monahan, who has adapted to the Jets after being dealt from Montreal. Their performance against Edmonton on Tuesday night was poor, resulting in a reduction in their projected goal rate from 60% to roughly 50% (one game can have such a significant impact; that is the beauty of tiny samples). They have now defeated opponents 8-3 overall. The Jets should be able to win their games against teams with their second line if their play below the surface can begin to match that a little bit more.
Information obtained from NaturalStatTrick, AllThreeZones, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, and Evolving-Hockey. Shot-based metrics are used in this narrative; here’s an overview of them.
