We all want a blockbuster. But eye-popping, jaw-dropping blockbusters are increasingly rare. By now, fans should be familiar with the catchphrases team officials use as excuses, heaven forbid they trade their Precious Prospects and do something big:
Clubs want to protect their “years of control.” Don’t want to “mortgage the future.” Prefer to build a “sustainable contender.”
For these and other reasons—not to mention, “I want to keep my job”—many team executives are, virtually by definition, risk-averse.
A.J. Preller of the San Diego Padres is an exception. Jerry Dipoto, the president of baseball operations for the Seattle Mariners, is also his spirit animal from the Northwest. The majority of other purchasers move quite cautiously. And it makes sense that some sellers would like to hang onto their best players rather than constantly turning over talent.
The following lists six trade prospects for clubs to consider, along with suggestions on whether to keep or cut them:
Skubal, 27, is a reasonable target for clubs in desperate need of rotation support in a transfer market lacking in aces. Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles are two teams that meet that definition. The Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians, and Padres all agree. The Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, and Atlanta Braves are among the other teams who are keeping an eye on things.
The Tigers would then respond to inquiries about Skubal, merely exercising due diligence. But they are now exhibiting vitality after seven consecutive losing seasons. Out of the last 14 games, they have won 11. Justyn-Henry Malloy, designated hitter, and second baseman Colt Keith are examples of young hitters who are maturing. And now they intend to deal a pitcher who is a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award, under club control, and whose projected salaries for the next two seasons are below market value?
The only justification for doing it would be the apparent one: a concern for Skubal’s safety. That is a legitimate worry given that Skubal’s health history is not exactly stellar and that it seems like every pitcher on the planet is having problems. He had flexor tendon surgery in August 2022, which kept him out of commission for almost a year, then Tommy John surgery in 2017. Therefore, it is not absurd to consider dealing him for a top position-player potential.
Still.
Jackson Holliday will not be traded to the Tigers for more than two years in exchange for Skubal. They are hardly a low-revenue, woe-is-me company, especially considering that from 2012 to 2017, they were among the top five payrolls under the late Mike Ilitch. Additionally, they had to be prepared to spend fast after having the 25th-ranked payroll at the beginning of the season.
Given that Scott Boras represents Skubal, a contract renewal seems improbable. Whatever. The AL Central is becoming better, but the Tigers are still in a weaker league. They have an opportunity to make it back to the postseason with Skubal before he becomes a free agent. They would still be stuck on the same hamster wheel they have been on for almost ten years without him.
Stay or go? Stay.
The Blue Jays, dubbed the Paper Tigers here, are sending out signals to opposing clubs that they intend to hang onto Guerrero and contend in 2025. It is an interesting perspective, given that this amazing team they created is 0-6 in the postseason this decade and drastically underachieves.
Pete Alonso is not being traded by the New York Mets. Christian Walker is not being traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Guerrero may be the best slugger on the market in a thin field; in fact, he may be superior to Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox, who is a year older and not quite as durable at 26. Over the previous five seasons, Guerrero has only missed 10 games.
Do the Jays intend to play in 25? in the potent AL East? Veterans in their thirtys, like righties Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman and outfielder George Springer, will be one year older. Guerrero will cost more, as will shortstop Bo Bichette and outfielder Daulton Varsho. At the end of the season, Guerrero and Bichette—neither of whom has consented to an extension—will almost definitely leave as free agents.
To put it in more executive lingo, the Blue Jays may try to “thread the needle” by dealing Bassitt along with possible free agents Danny Jansen, Yimi García, Yusei Kikuchi, and righty reliever. They might as well trade other players under club control through 2025 and beyond and completely demolish if they move Guerrero.
That tactic would be the front office’s admission of defeat, but whatever. The Jays’ farm system was ranked 20th in the majors by Keith Law of The Athletic prior to the season. This season ought to be this group’s final one rather than the next. Retooling is necessary.
Stay or go? Go.
The fact that Oakland seems reluctant to trade Miller, their 100 mph closer, is frustrating some rival executives. Miller, 25, is a last-place team’s reliever. a reliever who had elbow surgery last season and lost almost four months of work. A reliever who could break at any time and whose worth might never be higher.
To be fair, these are fair points. The A’s, however, think they are improving even if they are not nearly as far along as the Tigers. They are 10-6 in July after having a 30-56 start to the season. They also entered Monday leading the majors this month in runs per game, despite the small-sample warnings that do apply.
Not only is left fielder Miguel Andujar and designated hitter Brent Rooker producing strong at-bats. In addition to shortstop Max Schuemann, first baseman Tyler Soderstrom, center fielder JJ Bleday, and right fielder Lawrence Butler displaying promising traits, Shea Langeliers is tied with Mariners’ Cal Raleigh for the most home runs at catcher.
Weary of defeat, the players, front office, and manager Mark Kotsay want to keep going. Their two most sought-after trade candidates, Miller and Rooker, are under contract for three and five more seasons, respectively. Even the A’s usually avoid dealing players with such short service histories. How are they going to locate replacements if they act prior to the deadline? If the A’s give the best money, free agents will come to Sacramento, but it will not be their first option. When the team shows us the promised payroll boost, we will believe it.
Miller was the only All-Star for the A’s. As we stated in May, a team interested in him would probably have to deal with a young player of similar caliber or a sizeable package for several young players who might play a significant role for the A’s in the future. According to a person knowledgeable on the talks, the A’s once asked the Padres for Jackson Merrill. No, the Padres replied.
Top relievers are always in demand before the deadline, but the risk of injury may lower Miller’s return in a deal. Any challenges that might occur from relocating Miller are outweighed by the risk of keeping him. The A’s may not get Merrill’s caliber of player, but they still need to assemble a rotation, and Miller’s trade for a quality pitching prospect would aid in that process.
Stay or go? Go.
As previously reported by The Athletic, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer stated on Monday that the team will prioritize 2025 and beyond before the deadline. Another executive catchphrase, “opportunistic,” describes the Cubs, but they may not be as inclined to deal Steele as the Tigers are with Skubal. They ought to be, at any rate.
This is a team that has had trouble producing starting pitchers for several years. The story of Steele, a 2014 fifth-round selection, started to shift last season as he recorded a 3.07 ERA in 173 1/3 innings. He was sidelined until May 6 due to a strained left hamstring sustained on Opening Day, although he has since recovered.
In a market where the White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet, who is the most enticing starter available, may have to pitch in relief this season to reduce his innings, might the Cubs get a significant return for Steele? Yes. Steele still has three years left as club president, one more than Skubal. However, how would the Cubs replace Steele as their ace if their primary goal is 2025?
The Cubs, a high-earning franchise, ought to try to get Steele to sign an extension before considering a trade. The usual cautions would be in effect. In 2017, Steele had Tommy John surgery, and who knows what further arm ailments he might have to deal with. However, he is the most uncommon asset in baseball and a pitcher to construct a team around.
Stay or go? Stay.
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox
Temptation!
At $15 million, $20 million, and $20 million, Robert, a 26-year-old center fielder with five tools, is under club control for three more seasons and presents a compelling trade option. However, sources informed on the White Sox’s negotiations said that the team believes potential bidders may make Robert a greater offer in the offseason than they will at the deadline.
The reason? Robert’s battles to continue playing.
Robert played in more than 98 games just once in the preceding three seasons, and that was in 2023 when he finished with an.857 OPS, 38 home runs, and 20 stolen bases. He then had a right hip flexor strain, which caused him to miss over two months of action early this season. He needs to play in 53 of the last 60 games for the White Sox in order to reach 100 games. Nobody would wager the over.
Here’s a further issue: Robert has not been the offensive dynamo of last season since making his comeback on June 4. He is batting just.235 with a.325 on-base percentage. His nine home runs indicate his power hitter status, and his 11 successful stolen base attempts show his strong running ability. He will, however, be more in demand this winter if he can rediscover his 2023 form and keep it going until the conclusion of the season.
Of course, Robert could get injured once more. However, the White Sox would still have plenty of chances to sell him even if that did occur. It is worth taking that chance with a position player, especially one who sustains injuries as frequently as Robert.
Stay or go? Stay.
The reigning World Series winners need to be selling if they are not already.
They now have only about 10% chance of making the playoffs. It appears from the majority of the data that this is not their year. They also do not expect Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom’s anticipated returns to improve that, given the severity of their offensive woes.
The 34-year-old Eovaldi is 57 innings away from having his $20 million player option for the upcoming season vest, but that little snag in the deal should not be too concerning. It could be preferable for him to turn down the option and become a free agent if he remains healthy enough to ensure that $20 million. Alternately, he may use the option as leverage to get the Rangers to agree to an extension in exchange for more guaranteed cash.
The likelihood of a reunion in free agency is typically significantly decreased when teams trade players; if not, the players at least grow more accepting of other teams. Eovaldi, however, may be an anomaly. He is good friends with Chris Young, general manager of the Rangers. Additionally, he likes to pitch in the Houston suburb of Alvin, Texas, which is not too far from his home.
Think about this as well: Eovaldi is by far the most experienced starting pitcher that will be available in October. Competitors will be drawn to his 3.05 ERA in 79 2/3 postseason innings; he has pitched for several of them in the past (Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers).
Stay or go? Go.
(Top photo of Tarik Skubal: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
