The top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will compete at the picturesque Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado during the BMW Championship in an attempt to advance to the Tour Championship in Georgia. Here’s a refresher on the playoff structure: the top 50 finishers from the FedEx St. Jude Championship the previous week advance to the BMW Championship this week. The FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship will be up for grabs for the top 30 finishers in the BMW Championship.
While he attempts to solidify his hold on a FedEx Cup championship, Scottie Scheffler continues to lead Xander Schauffele by nearly 1,500 points. Nick Dunlap’s season was extended by his outstanding performance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, where he finished in the top five. This allowed him to move up inside the top 50 in the FedEx Cup rankings. Tom Kim’s season ended earlier than he would have liked due to his troubles in the latter stages, which caused him to drop out of the top 50.
I believe Tommy Fleetwood, Will Zalatoris, Austin Eckroat, and Justin Dunlap have the best chances of making it into the Tour Championship among the players outside of the top 30. It amazes me that Fleetwood is only in 31st this week after such a strong season. Zalatoris expressed his desire to conclude his season independently prior to the Wyndham Championship, and he made significant strides in that regard last week at the St. Jude Championship, finishing T12 and gaining strokes in all categories. Dunlap’s season has been one for the record books—he won both as a professional and an amateur on the PGA Tour.
From 1986 until 2006, Castle Pines Golf Club served as The International’s host course. Adam Scott is the only player in the field with experience on this particular course, and that expertise dates back to his rookie year on the PGA Tour in 2000.
I have had to base my model more on recent performance and my predictions about how the golf course would play because I do not have any solid data. This month, the course has seen a lot of rain, and on Thursday and Friday, there may be more showers before the weekend clears out. I am basing my models on strokes gained from the start, strokes gained during the last 12 rounds exclusively on approach, Par 72, Par 5, and birdie or better scoring.
Course information
Course: Castle Pines Golf Club — Castle Rock, Colo.
Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Par: 72
Yardage: 8,130 yards
Average green size: 5,600 square feet
Features: When work on Castle Pines Golf Club started in 1979 and was completed in 1981, the goal was to create the Augusta National of the West. When the players tee off on Thursday, Castle Pines will formally hold the record for the longest golf course to host the PGA Tour. Players and their caddies will need to perform some calculations to get the proper distances because the height is more over 6,000 feet above sea level. This week, players with prior experience playing at elevation, such as Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark, will have a small advantage. As the true distance will play in the 590-yard range, the opening hole of the golf course, a 649-yard Par 5, will be within two strokes of practically every player in the field. The
Recent champions: 2023 Viktor Hovland, 2022 Patrick Cantlay, 2021 Patrick Cantlay, 2020 Jon Rahm, 2019 Justin Thomas, 2018 Keegan Bradley, 2017 Marc Leishman, 2016 Dustin Johnson, 2015 Jason Day, 2014 Billy Horschel
2024 BMW Championship odds
All odds from BetMGM.
Betting slip
This week, Xander Schauffele (+600) and Scheffler are tied in nearly every statistical category. On the greens, Schauffele has a significant edge because he gains about a stroke every round. Although his price is only +600, it is nearly twice as excellent as Scheffler’s current odds, and at this stage, there should not be much of a difference. At the St. Jude Championship on Sunday, Xander gave the leaders a scare by gaining more than 5.6 strokes as he caught up.
At the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Viktor Hovland (+1800) improved his ball-striking score by over 8.5 strokes and his putter score by over three strokes during the week. That is how focused he needs to be with his irons to compensate for his subpar around-the-green play. Hovland, who is defending his BMW Championship title this week, will be trying to replicate his postseason success from last year.
After a dismal opening round at the Olympics, Wyndham Clark (+3000) has changed as a golfer. In the opening round of the Olympics, he gave up more than five strokes to the field; but, over the next three days, he gained more than thirteen strokes back. Being a native of Denver, he will have a ton of experience playing on this course and at altitude.
It is not good news for the other players in the field when Sam Burns (+3500) starts to dial in his irons. Burns is capable of making anything around or on the greens, and he believes he can. In the last three events, Burns has improved his approach game by more than two strokes on average, while his cumulative putting improvement has increased by more than 14 strokes. If he had not made some serious errors off the tee last week, he most likely would have won. If he wants to build on his strong putting form this week, he will need to rectify those mistakes.
DFS plays
Xander Schauffele ($11,100) See above.
On Sunday, Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500) emerged victorious after blowing a sizable lead in the latter stages. nearly the past two weeks, Matsuyama has improved his putting total by nearly 13 strokes, demonstrating his prowess with the ball and on the greens. The fact that he lost nearly three strokes to the field on the weekend due to a lack of accuracy around the green should be viewed as a bit of an anomaly.
Viktor Hovland ($10,400) See above.
Two-time BMW Championship winner Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) consistently appears to find his game in the postseason. In his past four tournaments, Cantlay has improved his overall ball-striking total by eighteen shots. At the St. Jude Championship, he gained more over three strokes off the tee, suggesting that he may have just regained confidence in his driving.
Two-time BMW Championship winner Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) consistently appears to find his game in the postseason. In his past four tournaments, Cantlay has improved his overall ball-striking total by eighteen shots. At the St. Jude Championship, he gained more over three strokes off the tee, suggesting that he may have just regained confidence in his driving.
Sam Burns ($9,400) See above.
Wyndham Clark ($9,200) See above.
After winning the Wyndham Championship, Aaron Rai ($8,600) had a little of a hangover, but he still finished T16 last week. Despite losing more than four strokes with his putter last week, Rai improved by more than 7.8 strokes on approach and ended in T16. I usually end up deciding on Rai around the 8K area because I am not a big lover of this range.
nearly the course of his last five golf tournaments, Adam Scott ($8,300) has improved his short game by nearly 2.3 strokes while also improving his tee game in three consecutive events. After falling behind the pack on approach in the first two FedEx St. Jude Championship rounds by more than four strokes, he appeared to find his irons. During his approach to the field, he gained more than 2.5 strokes.
At the St. Jude Championship on Sunday, Davis Thompson ($7,900) improved his ball-striking performance by more than four strokes, propelling him up to a T33 position. This is going to be my cautious week with Thompson since I believe he may be getting a bit tired at the end of the season.
At the St. Jude Championship, Robert MacIntyre ($7,600) gained over 7.2 strokes with his short game and finished in T7 position. He has two wins on the season.
Over his last three golf tournaments, Taylor Pendrith ($7,300) has improved his approach stroke average by more than 12.8. I am not too concerned about the minor driver struggle he had at the St. Jude Championship. Pendrith, who placed seventh at the 2022 BMW Championship, has a great season and some experience.
Nick Dunlap ($6,900) improved his ball-striking score by over 6.2 strokes and his putting score by over three strokes, finishing T5 at the St. Jude Championship last week. Dunlap is a player that plays in spurts, so this could be one of his better moments.
Will Zalatoris ($6,800) has gradually been regaining his form when striking the ball. Although he battled off the tee and on approach on Sunday, he still looked far from his best, and given that he has not been in that situation in a while, I think we can overlook it. Although he finished T12, he gained strokes in all areas of the game. To break into the top 30 and compete in the Tour Championship for the first time, he will need to play even better this week.
At the St. Jude Championship, Eric Cole ($6,500) lost more than four strokes off the tee but still finished in T18 thanks to excellent approach play and short-game form.
One of the very few players that improved all round at both the Wyndham Championship and the St. Jude Championship is Austin Eckroat ($6,300). In his last round, he improved his ball-striking by more than two strokes, which helped him finish in the top 18.
One and done
Every week, we shall select in the opposite order as the rankings, and we are not allowed to make the same selection twice. See the spreadsheet that tracks the people we have used.
Standings
Dennis Esser: $10,608,478
Brody Miller: $9,272,969.16
Hugh Kellenberger: $8,554,127.63
Kellenberger:This is my one and only shot, therefore I am putting caution to the wind and going all Viktor Hovland on Sunday night against someone who could actually be carrying a new prize. Over the next two weeks, the Norwegian has a chance to salvage a lost season, and who knows, maybe he will succeed? He is my choice, though I am not sure if I really think that or if I am just trying to convince myself.
Miller: Alright, so I kind of accidentally saved Collin Morikawa for this week, and now I have a world-ranked player who is in the top four or five competing for a ton of money. Morikawa is having an amazing season, even though he has not won any yet. Perhaps he can win me the competition by winning this high-profile tournament.
Esser: The final round of our one-and-done competition is the BMW Championship. I am hoping for the same Viktor Hovland that we seen in the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. His putter more than made up for any shortcomings he had around the green, and his ball striking was back to its peak. Had Hugh not taken Hovland before me, I would have said the following. With Hovland off the board, I was left with a choice between Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau. Finau hasn’t been very accurate with his driver lately, and that could cost him here, so I’m taking Wyndham Clark.
(Photo of Viktor Hovland: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
