In terms of fantasy football, the Buffalo Bills have had a very consistent group of players in recent years. Josh Allen, one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the game, together with his top receiver, Stefon Diggs, and the explosive Gabe Davis have always been the main players. With Diggs and Davis now out of the picture, Allen is the only member of the Bills’ receiving corps that will remain after the most significant overhaul since 2019.
Uncertainty brings opportunity as well, particularly for Dalton Kincaid, a tight end in his second year. Could he develop into one of Allen’s top targets and a top player at his position simultaneously? Let us investigate.
Pros
Because there is virtually no competition for targets, Kincaid’s appeal is enticing. Only slot receiver Khalil Shakir is still listed on the 2023 receiver depth chart after Diggs and Davis left. The Bills signed veteran Curtis Samuel, who has only had one season with more than 800 receiving yards, but he will probably start. Although he is only 21 years old, Buffalo selected Keon Coleman with the first pick in the second round in April. Across 12 games, he averaged just 4.2 receptions and 54.8 yards per game during his last college season at Florida State. Shakir did well in 2023, but Kincaid’s goals from the previous season (91) more than quadrupled Shakir’s (45).
Those are all encouraging signals. A portion of the 2023 season may inspire even more optimistic hopes for Kincaid’s potential in his sophomore year. Tight end Dawson Knox was placed on injured reserve due to a wrist injury from Weeks 8 to 12. Kincaid saw a spike in his snap share to 74 percent throughout the five games. During that time, he was a reliable target for Allen, leading all Bills receivers with 31 receptions, ranking second in targets (37, 7.4 per game) just behind Diggs (43) and accumulating 281 yards, or 42% of his total yardage production for the season. Kincaid would have finished the season with 105 catches and 955 yards if those five games had been played.
It is uncommon for a rookie to acquire the role and influence that Kincaid did under head coach Sean McDermott. Throughout his rookie season’s spring and summer, he and Allen clicked right away. Furthermore, it was recently revealed that, before to their first-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, Allen texted general manager Brandon Beane just the words “Dalton Kincaid.” The coaching staff’s perception of his role in 2024 is the only thing preventing him from developing into a premier fantasy asset.
DK making plays. @_DaltonKincaid | @JoshAllenQB | @Ticketmaster pic.twitter.com/OxGNpaZoVq
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) July 25, 2024
Cons
The Bills’ level of commitment to Kincaid playing every down is the biggest possible hazard. Even though it was fantastic to see his snap share rise while Knox was out, it decreased after Knox came back. Kincaid’s snap share was only 53.6 percent in the last six games. He was even surpassed by Knox in two of those contests. Although Kincaid had two very successful weeks, over the course of the six games, his average production was just one score and 3.3 catches on 5.0 targets for 47 yards. That was under Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator and play caller for the Bills once more this season.
The bad news is that Allen’s other favorite, Knox, is still on the team. On the plus side, when it counted most during the playoffs, Kincaid did receive 59 percent of the offensive snaps. Knox continued to be an impact player and played 41% of the snaps even though Kincaid’s usage increased during the playoffs.
In the event that Kincaid reaches his maximum potential, his 2024 output is projected to require either of the following two outcomes:
1. After dealing for Diggs, the Bills now more frequently commit to 12 players.
2.Knox becomes a little player under Kincaid, receiving only 20 to 30 percent of the snaps.
Conclusion
Allen quickly became fond of Kincaid in 2023 due to his effortless route running, deft hands, aptitude for reading zone defenses, and ability to win short and intermediate routes. That ought to carry on in 2024. And few tight ends in the game can provide what he provided when you factor in his production while Knox was not in the lineup.
It will require some faith, though, given Knox’s presence and Kincaid’s current ranking as the Bills’ No. 7 tight end and No. 57 in ADP, until we have a clearer understanding of how the team plans to deploy their personnel packages.
As one of the best producers at his position, Kincaid have the skill to make that number worthwhile, if not beyond it. Spending that kind of money on him, though, requires you to consider any potential roadblocks he might face.
(Photo: Mark Konezny / USA Today)
