The New York Mets’ season-long road trip got off to a less than stellar start as they lost a set to the lackluster Los Angeles Angels. The National League wild-card race has changed significantly in the few weeks since the All-Star break, so I thought it would be a good idea to reset it now that the trade deadline has passed and an odd August schedule looms.
At that point, Atlanta was comfortably ensconced as the first wild card, and five teams were within two games of one another for the next two spots. But scorching starts to the second half by the Padres and Diamondbacks have changed the dynamic.
After the break, the Mets have gone 9-7, moving them up from the third wild-card slot to the outside looking in. FanGraphs shows that New York’s chances of making the playoffs are at 41.1 percent, having reached as high as 59.9 percent on July 26 (and as low as 7.9 percent on June 2). According to Tankathon, the Mets’ remaining strength of schedule is.490, which is easier than that of all but six clubs in MLB.
Atlanta
Record: 60-51
Playoff odds: 84.1 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .495
High point / low point: 99.5 percent (April 26) / 69.9 percent (July 26)
Record since All-Star break: 7-9
After the break, the Mets have gone 9-7, moving them up from the third wild-card slot to the outside looking in. FanGraphs shows that New York’s chances of making the playoffs are at 41.1 percent, having reached as high as 59.9 percent on July 26 (and as low as 7.9 percent on June 2). According to Tankathon, the Mets’ remaining strength of schedule is.490, which is easier than that of all but six clubs in MLB.
San Diego
Record: 61-52
Playoff odds: 75.6 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .482
High point / low point: Today / 26.1 percent (April 29)
Record since All-Star break: 11-3
From a Mets perspective: The Padres are the hottest club in baseball. They have won 11 of their previous 13 games after dropping seven of their previous eight games around the All-Star break. After recovering from a shoulder injury, Xander Bogaerts appears much more like the player he was in the early going of the season, and San Diego’s lineup appears more formidable than it has at any other time. At the trade deadline, general manager A.J. Preller displayed his usual aggressiveness as he tried to assemble a powerhouse bullpen by adding Jason Adam and Tanner Scott.
Later this month, the Mets embark on a massive road trip that includes a four-game series against the San Diego Padres.
Arizona
Record: 60-52
Playoff odds: 66.1 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .510
High point / low point: Today / 17.6 percent (June 28)
Record since All-Star break: 11-4
From the perspective of the Mets: Since the break and in the wild-card rankings, the Diamondbacks are directly behind the Padres. Over the past month, Arizona has averaging more than six runs per game, and the team’s pitching staff should get considerably healthier in the second half. The first half saw almost little from Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Merrill Kelly for the D-Backs. Anything close to their regular output will change the rotation.
The Mets visit the Diamondbacks after that series with the Padres at the end of this month.
St. Louis
Record: 57-55
Playoff odds: 20.6 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .522
High point / low point: 55.6 percent (July 8) / 10.4 percent (May 11)
Record since All-Star break: 7-9
From the perspective of the Mets: The Cardinals, like the Mets, recovered from a difficult beginning with a fantastic 50-game span (32-18) to re-enter the postseason picture. Since then, they have become colder, and their offense is still waiting for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to perform at their peak. Tommy Pham was brought back by St. Louis before the trade deadline, and in his first at-bat as a Cardinal in six years, he hit a grand slam.
Pittsburgh
Record: 56-55
Playoff odds: 12.2 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .512
High point / low point: 37.6 percent (April 8) / 6.1 percent (July 7)
Record since All-Star break: 8-7
From the perspective of the Mets: The Pirates’ offense, which is second from the bottom in the National League in runs, continues to be a concern. Bryan De La Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s signings are beneficial, but perhaps not significant enough to close the rankings deficit.
Record: 56-57
Playoff odds: 12.2 percent
Remaining strength of schedule: .497
High point / low point: 48.2 percent (March 30) / 10.3 percent (August 3)
Record since All-Star break: 9-7
From the perspective of the Mets: The Giants were expected to be constructed for the second part of the season, with Blake Snell hopefully developing into his typical self and Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb rejoining the rotation. Given that Cobb is now in Cleveland and Soler was traded to Atlanta to be replaced by former Met Mark Canha, they might have undercut that structure right before the deadline.
The exposition
The Mets lost two of their three games in Anaheim to begin this lengthy road trip. At 58-53, New York is now one and a half games out of the final wild-card place.
On Sunday, the Cardinals suffered a defeat in the final game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. Three games out of the last wild-card place, St. Louis stands at 57-55.
On Sunday, the Rockies suffered a defeat in the third and final game of their three-game series at San Diego. Colorado is 19 1/2 games away of the final wild-card slot with a record of 41-72.
On Sunday, the Mariners were unable to complete a sweep of the Phillies. Seattle leads the American League West by one game with a record of 59-54.
The pitching possibles
at St. Louis
LHP Sean Manaea (7-4, 3.50 ERA) vs. RHP Andre Pallante (4-5, 4.04)
at Colorado
RHP Luis Severino (7-4, 3.93) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (3-4, 5.64)
RHP Paul Blackburn (5-2, 4.11) vs. RHP Ryan Feltner (1-10, 4.97)
LHP David Peterson (5-1, 3.47) vs. LHP Austin Gomber (3-7. 4.66)
at Seattle
LHP Jose Quintana (6-7, 3.95) vs. RHP Bryce Miller (8-7, 3.62)
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Logan Gilbert (6-8, 3.05)
RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Luis Castillo (9-10, 3.43)
Injury updates
Mets injured list
| Player | Injury | Elig. | ETA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Right shoulder impingement | Now | 8. August | |
| Right pronator strain | 8/8 | 8. August | |
| Right elbow inflammation | Now | 8. August | |
| Right knee bone bruise | Now | 8. August | |
| UCL sprain in right elbow | 8/7 | 9. September | |
| Right elbow strain | 8/23 | X. 2025 | |
| High-grade left calf strain | 9/25 | X. 2025 | |
| Torn right ACL | Now | X. 2025 | |
| Tommy John surgery | Now | X. 2025 |
Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL
- While in Anaheim, Starling Marte participated in baseball activities with the team. The Mets will now assess if he is prepared for a minor-league rehab assignment before sending him to Port St. Lucie for the upcoming week.
- On Sunday, Sean Reid-Foley and Reed Garrett both had appearances in minor league games. Garrett now appears to be returning sooner than Reid-Foley, though both might happen this week.
Minor-league schedule
Triple-A: Syracuse vs. Worcester (Boston)
Double-A: Binghamton at Somerset (New York, AL)
High-A: Brooklyn vs. Hudson Valley (New York, AL)
Low-A: St. Lucie vs. Bradenton (Pittsburgh)
Last week in Mets
Trivia time
In their brief nine attempts, the Mets have only ever won three games in Seattle. The Mets’ winning % in an American League road city is not the lowest at.333. Outside of Queens, which American League team has proven to be the most formidable opponent for the Mets?
HINT: The Mets have played in this city more than their non-typical AL Central and AL West opponents, but not as much as their traditional AL East interleague opponents. Well.
(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)
(Photo of Pete Alonso: Brandon Sloter / Getty Images)
