If (S.C., DaRLINGTON) The NASCAR Cup Series regular season came to a conclusion on Sunday at the finish line of the grueling Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, and the “Lady in Black” left her mark on the playoff lineup.
Tyler Reddick persevered through illness to defeat Kyle Larson for the regular-season points championship, while Harrison Burton’s unexpected victory handed the Stewart-Haas Racing driver an improbable playoff position and negated Chris Buescher’s attempt to point his way in.
Here’s a look at how each driver stands up in the 16-person playoff field, along with Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi of The Athletic’s assessment of their odds of taking home the championship (or not).
Kyle Larson
Rank: First
Playoff points: 40
Wins: Four (Las Vegas, Kansas, Sonoma, Indianapolis)
Best championship finish: First (2021 champion)
The fact that Larson will start the playoffs with a series-best 38 playoff points further increases his chances of making it to the semifinal round, if not farther. The best driver on perhaps the strongest team is a formidable combination in and of itself.
Why he won’t: This season, Larson has had the fastest vehicle far too often, only to watch a potential victory evaporate because of a self-inflicted error (Texas, Iowa, Michigan). If that happens in the first several rounds once more, his big playoff point cache acts as a cushion. Later rounds may not always reflect that.
Christopher Bell
Rank: Second
Playoff points: 32
Wins: Three (Phoenix, Charlotte, New Hampshire)
Best championship finish: Third (2022)
Why he can win: The NASCAR playoff structure ultimately boils down to your ability to advance to the championship race in Phoenix and then secure a victory there. Bell has demonstrated that he is capable of doing both because the shorter, flatter courses that suit him best this season are essential for success. Bell started the spring Phoenix race from the twenty-first position on the final restart and went on to win by a margin of 5.5 seconds. Then he won in New Hampshire, further demonstrating his mastery of those tracks. Bell poses a serious threat to the crown this year and should be taken very seriously.
Why he loses: Bell would make his third consecutive appearance in the Championship 4 if he makes it. However, his two previous attempts have demonstrated why winning a single race is such a difficult feat. During the last stop in 2022, a member of the pit crew got his finger hooked in the wheel, causing extra time to be spent on pit road. Additionally, Bell experienced a brake rotor explosion last year that ended in an accident before the race was even halfway through. Reaching the final race is one thing, but coming out on top is quite another.
Tyler Reddick
Rank: Third
Playoff points: 28
Wins: Two (Talladega, Michigan)
Best championship finish: Sixth (2023)
Why he can win: Throughout the course of 12 summer races, Reddick finished one win, two seconds, two thirds, two fourths, and three additional times inside the top ten. No driver has demonstrated greater high-level consistency. He won the regular-season championship thanks to his steadiness, which also earned him 15 bonus points. It is possible for him to win a first-ever championship if he can carry this run into the postseason.
Why he won’t: There is no obvious reason why Reddick can not win the championship; the mistakes that defined his season the previous year have been corrected, and the No. 45 team is now one that nearly always finishes in the hunt. If we were to pick a fault, though, it would be that Reddick struggled to finish the regular season despite having the opportunity to win several more races than he did (two). If this trend continues into the playoffs, it could mean the difference between moving on and being eliminated.
William Byron
Rank: Fourth
Playoff points: 22
Wins: Three (Daytona 500, Austin, Martinsville)
Best championship finish: Third (2023)
Why he can win: After the struggles at last fall’s Martinsville race, you would have thought the Virginia half-mile track was the weak point for Byron and the No. 24 team. But then they came out and won the spring race there, leading 88 laps. Byron has wins at six of the 10 playoff tracks (all but Bristol, Kansas, the Roval and Talladega), so he’s perfectly capable of being a threat if his team has more consistent speed than it showed this summer.
Why he won’t: Since April, Byron has not won or finished in the top 10 three times in a row. It is worrying because of his inconsistent summer because it is unclear what kind of team the No. 24 actually is. Will they be the team that can repeat their three-win start to the year in eight races? Or will Byron occasionally be completely off and miss the setup?
Ryan Blaney
Rank: Fifth
Playoff points: 18
Wins: Two (Iowa, Pocono)
Best championship finish: First (2023 champion)
Why he can win: Blaney turned things around after a rocky start to the season; he won two games and, with a little bit of fortune, could have won a couple more. His 2023 championship run demonstrated his ability to handle the strain of competing for a championship and did away with the mistakes that frequently characterized his prior playoff performances. The defending champion’s playoff schedule is especially advantageous because many of the ten tracks are among his strongest. It is feasible to qualify for the Championship 4 final twice in a row.
The reason he will not is Even though Ford, Team Penske, and Blaney have improved significantly, they still can not match the Hendrick Chevys and JGR/23XI Toyotas in terms of consistency. We might not be able to close that speed difference. It is also important to remember that since NASCAR switched to a knockout playoff style in 2014, there has not been a repeat winner, highlighting how challenging it is to win consecutive races.
Denny Hamlin
Rank: Sixth
Playoff points: 15
Wins: Three (Bristol, Richmond, Dover)
Best championship finish: Second (2010)
Why he can win: Usually, the No. 11 team fields some of the fastest vehicles in the field. Since Hamlin can win on a number of different types of courses, he ought to be in the Championship 4. If all goes according to plan, Hamlin, forty-three, has every right to take the podium in Phoenix and raise the Cup Series championship trophy for the first time in his career.
The reason he will not is Um, have you seen how lucky this guy is? There is a reason why Hamlin claims he is “cursed,” and he does seem to be the only one who experiences strange events (Hail Melon, anyone?). The most recent was when he lost almost all of his playoff points because of a manufacturing defect that was unrelated to Hamlin or his group. Given Hamlin’s past performance, there is a good probability those dropped points will resurface for him. In fact, you can practically wager on it.
Chase Elliott
Rank: Seventh
Playoff points: 14
Wins: One (Texas)
Best championship finish: First (2020 champion)
Why he can win: Elliott has had a fantastic comeback season, with the second-best average and ranking sixth or better in points — 23 of 26 weeks — including three times as the leader of the standings. This comes a year after he failed to win a race and missed the playoffs. He has a great chance of making it to the Championship 4 for the fourth time in the last five years if he can continue to play like this throughout the playoffs. On seven out of ten playoff tracks, he had victories.
Elliott has had a decent to very excellent year, but his stats do not jump out at you; among those considered “championship favorites,” he has the fewest victories. This is the reason he can’t. Indications that he is not winning races like Larson, Hamlin, Bell, and other competitors include the fact that he only has one stage win, ranks tenth in laps led, and only ranks ninth in playoff points. Given that neither Homestead nor Las Vegas are among his greatest songs, the third round might also prove difficult. Elliott’s best finish in his previous six combined starts at both tracks is 12th.
Brad Keselowski
Rank: Eighth
Playoff points: 8
Wins: One (Darlington 1)
Best championship finish: First (2012 champion)
Why he can win: Keselowski is the kind of seasoned driver who is familiar with this playoff structure and knows how to make a deep run, even though his cars have not been as quick as they were early in the season. In an impending interview with The Athletic, he stated that capturing a second Cup Series title is his top priority. He is the kind of driver that nobody wants to face when the chips are down and he is the kind that everyone wants to beat.
The reason he will not is Even though Keselowski was tied for fourth in the top-five and top-10 finishes going into the final race of the regular season, he was just 17th in laps led. That indicates that, even though RFK Racing does not always arrive with race-winning speed, he can still make the most of his day while driving a nice car. In light of the difficulty of navigating this playoff structure with few playoff points to your name, failing to win a significant race might mean the difference between qualifying for the championship and not.
Joey Logano
Rank: Ninth
Playoff points: 7
Wins: One (Nashville)
Best championship finish: First (2018 and 2022 champion)
Why he can win: The battle-tested Logano is perhaps the toughest opponent in the playoffs. He knows the value of every point and is not afraid to go all out for a victory. On the final lap, the leader does not want to see this driver in their rearview mirror. His “win at all costs” approach works really well for him in this setting. Even though he was largely mediocre throughout the regular season, he demonstrated during both of his championship campaigns that he and his team are capable of winning even when they are not playing at their best.
The reason he will not is Logano’s 18.8 average finish would be the lowest in his ten years with Team Penske were the season to end today. This seems like a red flag that his No. 22 team is not performing up to its usual high caliber. There are a lot of unanswered questions regarding this team, but perhaps it will not matter.
Austin Cindric
Rank: 10th
Playoff points: 7
Wins: One (Gateway)
Best championship finish: 12th (2022)
Why he can win: Blaney and Logano, Cindric’s two Team Penske teammates, have won the last two Cup Series titles; in both cases, they turned things up just right after largely mediocre seasons. Although it would be shocking if Cindric made it to Phoenix, his colleagues have proven they have the vehicles necessary to go far in the playoffs. In the Xfinity Series finals, where Cindric became victorious in 2020, anything might potentially happen.
Why he won’t: Cindric has only finished in the top ten once all season, and that was at Gateway, where he unexpectedly won when Blaney ran out of gas while leading into the white flag. Cindric would not be in the playoffs at all without that win, and there is not much reason to believe his team can pick up speed overnight to move from 19th in the regular-season standings to winning the entire playoff series after numerous rounds of play.
Daniel Suárez
Rank: 11th
Playoff points: 6
Wins: One (Atlanta)
Best championship finish: 10th (2022)
Why he can win: Suárez has won twice in his career on drafting tracks and road courses, and it just so happens that the first two rounds feature both of these types of courses in the same bracket. Therefore, regardless of what he does in the other two races, a victory in Round 1 in Atlanta, where he won in the spring, or Watkins Glen would move him up the points. Then, Round 2 would present him with a similar situation as Talladega and the Roval would be his best opportunity to advance to the semifinals of the playoffs. Yes, it is a bit of a leap of faith, but in 2022, Trackhouse Racing came very close to winning the title with Ross Chastain.
Why he doesn’t: Suárez would not have made the playoffs if he had not upset Atlanta. With just one additional top-five result throughout the season, Suárez’s performance simply was not there for the No. 99 team. For him to have a deep playoff run, a lot would have to go right for him and a lot of things would have to go wrong for practically everyone else.
Alex Bowman
Rank: 12th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Chicago)
Best championship finish: 6th (2020)
Why he can win: A Hendrick Motorsports vehicle is always unpredictable. With his team’s rapidity, Bowman is tied for fourth place in top-10 finishes and has the potential to go far. Hendrick would be the team to find greater speed in the playoffs at a crucial juncture.
Why he won’t: Bowman entered Darlington having led just 14 laps overall this season, which is 25th in the series. Compared to non-playoff drivers like Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek, and Corey LaJoie, that is a smaller number of laps lead. Without demonstrating a greater capacity to run up front than that, no driver will advance to the final four.
Chase Briscoe
Rank: 13th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Southern 500)
Best championship finish: Ninth (2022)
Why he can win: It does not appear probable and would be an extremely long shot. Nevertheless, did anyone really believe that Stewart-Haas Racing and Briscoe would win the Southern 500 and clinch the final playoff spot? Briscoe has enough skill to lead the field through a few rounds and has a chance to win at a road course. Oh, and he won at Phoenix his other career triumph.
Why he won’t: For all the reasons that up until Sunday night, Briscoe was not considered a candidate in this season. SHR is a team that will soon go extinct because it has not operated successfully in 2024 and has already lost staff. It would be more insane to anticipate an unexpected championship run than it was the last time the No. 14 car won the title (in 2011, Tony Stewart won half of the playoff races).
Harrison Burton
Rank: 14th
Playoff points: 5
Wins: One (Daytona 2)
Best championship finish: 27th (2022)
Why he can win: Burton and the illustrious Wood Brothers are the perfect Cinderella team for any playoff. It would be the feel-good story to end all feel-good stories if they win the championship. Although a title is unattainable, Burton might unexpectedly make it past Round 1 if he performs well at Atlanta, a drafting track that resembles Daytona in certain ways, and is fortunate enough. You never know.
Why he won’t: Burton has the regular season body of work of a player who is probably going to be out after the first round. Among those who started every race, he finished last in terms of points and was never able to put together a run of consistent solid finishes.
Ty Gibbs
Rank: 15th
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: 18th (2023)
Why he can win: Gibbs has the speed to win; he has led the seventh-most laps this season and has come very close to winning his maiden race as a professional. It would not be shocking if JGR emerged from the playoffs with a few victories, especially because they have had some of the strongest cars all season. Any track, maybe with the exception of Martinsville, is his to win. Gibbs is a solid choice for a dark horse title, in my opinion.
Why he won’t: Winning the championship would be a first for a driver who has never won a race. Gibbs’ inexperience will probably prove to be his downfall. A driver’s first playoff experience is usually a learning opportunity, and the 21-year-old can expect this to be the case.
Martin Truex Jr.
Rank: 16th
Playoff points: 4
Wins: None
Best championship finish: First (2017 champion)
Why it is possible for him to win: Truex is still a potential Hall of Famer with vehicles that can win most weeks, even if he only has ten races left in his full-time Cup Series career. Considering how fast he is played this season, it is strange that he is seeded so low and has not yet earned many playoff points. However, it would not be shocking if the No. 19 team suddenly fired up at the perfect moment, which would be the exact reverse of how the playoffs played out last year.
The reason he will not is This year, Truex has come close to winning several times, but overall, 2024 has been a letdown. He had finished 24th or lower in six of the previous seven races going into the regular-season finale. He went from leading the team in points to ninth during that awful run, and there are not many indications that he will quickly turn things around in time for one more postseason run.
(Top photo of Denny Hamlin leading the field to the green flag at Michigan: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
