The Chicago White Sox are rapidly approaching the current mark for the greatest number of defeats in Major League Baseball history. They will “defeat” the 1962 New York Mets by four losses if their current win percentage stays true, and they will inherit that shameful mantle. The current team’s players and staff have already felt the effects of it, but baseball in general is also impacted by their futility. Even with baseball’s best efforts to create a balanced schedule, the last seven weeks of the season are determined by chance. On their schedule, some clubs (and starters) get to circle the White Sox. Some people don’t.
What is the difference between playing the White Sox this year and a.500 team in a three-game series? We do not have a ton of actual data because there have not been many teams as awful as the White Sox, but we can compare these teams based on past trends if we give them a.260 winning % rather than the.235 they currently have. To demonstrate how dramatically the White Sox could alter a three-game series, let us consider a team similar to the Boston Red Sox, who opened the day Friday with a nice, tidy.540 winning percentage:
• Against a .500 team, Boston would expect to win 1.60 games.
• Against a .400 team, Boston would expect to win 1.84 games.
• Against a .260 team, Boston would expect to win 2.32 games.
Of course, you could round all of these to two victories out of three. However, you may also note that the difference in projected win between playing the White Sox and a.500 team is probably going to be greater than half. For a playoff club, that may mean everything if it results in just one victory! Here are FanGraphs’ post-season predictions for the National League wild-card race as of Thursday morning:
• San Diego Padres 88-74
• Arizona Diamondbacks 88-74
• Atlanta Braves 87-75
• New York Mets 85-77
• St. Louis Cardinals 83-79
With an end-of-season forecast of 86-76, the Red Sox would be the third wild card in the American League, while the Seattle Mariners would be eliminated with an 84-78 mark. Projections show that a club’s fate in the postseason will not be determined by playing the White Sox alone, but it is also evident that a team might advance or regress based on a single real-world victory.
Danny Jansen’s new team is in the thick of the wild-card race. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
The Red Sox, the Mets, and — possibly most significantly — the Padres are among the underdog teams who face the White Sox in the latter stages of September. Both the Red Sox and the Houston Astros will get to play the White Sox. Predictions that state the Astros will win the division and the Red Sox will make the playoffs factor in the Mariners’ victory over the Yankees. The timetable bestows and withholds.
Ultimately, the clubs still need to win their games against the White Sox and the games themselves still need to be played. The Padres, Red Sox, and Mets can not just mark three victories on the calendar; teams like the White Sox—possibly not quite as bad—have played spoiler in the past.
A few starting pitchers who are nearing the end of their contracts will also benefit from good scheduling and potentially advantageous matches that will help both their real-life teams and their fantasy teams.
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs (at CHW on Friday, TOR, DET, at PIT, PIT)
This season, Taillon has been a reliable pitcher for the Cubs; nevertheless, his worst outing came against the Reds in their difficult environment. Apart from that, he has only allowed more than three runs in a game this season—that too against the White Sox! Oh no! All things considered, this is a decent schedule for the righty. These teams’ offenses are all below average, and in some cases, downright awful. It does not get much better in terms of matchups, regardless of your thoughts on his strikeout rate (which is not terrific!) or other things (the fastballs are not that amazing!).
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks (COL, at MIA, NYM, LAD)
Will the Diamondbacks keep a six-man rotation going this long? If so, that means that Rodriguez won’t start two games in one week, most likely. If not, this schedule may not hold and he could get the Red Sox instead of missing them. And that could be a huge deal with the stuff Rodriguez displayed in his first start back. Sitting 91.4 mph on the fastball — a full tick down from last year — and striking out one in 5 2/3 innings makes him seem more like a matchups guy than one you depend on.
Hayden Birdsong, San Francisco Giants (DET, at OAK, at SEA, at MIL)
Although Birdsong’s fastball may not be in excellent form, he still has two or three excellent secondaries and at least three starts left in him, where he will pitch in decent parks against average offenses. In particular, Seattle increases his strikeout total in a way that increases his appeal. Perhaps he will even get the self-assurance to do well in that more difficult park Brewers game.
Joey Estes, Oakland A’s (at NYM, TBR, MIL, at TEX)
According to a recently released fresh perspective on command, Joey Estes was ranked among the top 10 in the major leagues. Since the Braves showed him how hitters perform based on the count, he affirmed that command was a key component of his game, particularly considering that he is currently only 92 years old. Although neither his schedule nor the material are certain, the parks are at least appealing.
Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays (at LAA, at CHC, LAA, at BOS)
He is scheduled with at least a respectable three-start runway, and the split-finger looks to be a legitimate pitch at this point. Most leagues should have him available as well.
(Photo of Andrew Vaughn: D. Ross Cameron / USA Today)
