The confidence Detroit Red Wings supporters had in their front office was almost unquestionable two years ago.
The two most recent Stanley Cup winners were ahead of Detroit, which came in third on The Athletic’s annual survey of front-office optimism despite the team having finished the season with a bottom-eight record and missing the playoffs for the sixth straight year. The ranking expressed how much the Red Wings’ supporters believed general manager Steve Yzerman could lead the team to its previous level of success.
But it seems that faith has been shattered in just two years. The Red Wings have dropped all the way to 21st in the 2024 front-office confidence ranking, which was released by Dom Luszczyszyn last week. In 2023, they had already dropped to 12th.
With some notable peripherals, the 2024 nine-spot decrease was the sixth-largest of any team (after only the Penguins, Kings, Sabres, Kraken, and Wild). According to Luszczyszyn, 45% of the fan base had lost faith in the team in the previous 12 months. Even more startling is the fact that Detroit now has just one grade over a B-minus, two years after the team did not receive a lower than an A-minus in any of the six poll categories (roster building, cap management, drafting and developing, trade, free agency, and vision).
That is quite the decline, particularly in light of the fact that the team has advanced in the standings for the past two seasons and has done so every season since Yzerman took over in 2019–20.
What then is causing the decline in self-assurance? Let us compare the fan grades from 2023 to 2024 and the most plausible theories for their changes, looking at each category separately.
Roster Building
2023 fan grade: B
2024 fan grade: C+
It is noteworthy to examine the decline in this area because it is the one that most closely corresponds with the strength of the current NHL squad. On the one hand, primarily due to a substantially upgraded roster, Detroit gained 11 standings points and nearly made the playoffs in a tiebreaker last season. However, since players like David Perron, Robby Fabbri, Daniel Sprong, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jake Walman, and James Reimer left this summer to sign free agents, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Motte, Erik Gustafsson, and Cam Talbot have already made a significant impact on the roster.
With the exception of Tarasenko, those signings are not particularly noteworthy, and it is likely that the Red Wings will see slightly less offense in 2024–25 given that they placed ninth in the NHL in scoring previous season. To make up for it, they will rely on better goaltending and defense, as well as possibly more natural role fits. They may also look to internal development from players like top defense prospect Simon Edvinsson. However, based on what I have mentioned, I do not think they have made personnel improvements, which could mean a minor regression this season.
Even with the addition of Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane to the lineup last season, there is a growing perception that the Red Wings lack star power, which may be the greater cause of the grade discrepancy than the roster adjustments made this summer. That is a legitimate worry, even though it is not as practically manageable in the near run. In either scenario, though, the evidence is rather clear: fans’ enthusiasm for Yzerman’s roster expansion has decreased from a year ago.
Another potentially important consideration when evaluating this category is how the team uses its younger players. One of my main complaints about the 2023 offseason was that Edvinsson did not have a path to early playing time. Carter Mazur and Marco Kasper, this year’s top young players, still have a chance to start, but Detroit develops young players comparatively slowly to some of its peers, such as Buffalo, Anaheim, and New Jersey.
Cap management
2023 rating: B+
2024 rating: C+
It was noteworthy that since Detroit avoided making significant cap commitments during the summer, this was one of the largest single-category reductions. Their 2024 free-agent agreements were all one- or two-year agreements.
Therefore, it follows logically that the decline is most likely due to the realization of contracts that have already been signed. After agreeing to a three-year contract worth $3.4 million per year last summer, Justin Holl did not start more over half of the team’s games the previous year. The organization had to give up their sixth-leading goal scorer, Fabbri, virtually for free in order to relieve himself of his $4 million cap charge, and they had to attach a second-round selection in exchange for Walman, who signed a contract equal to Holl’s before the 2023 trade deadline. They similarly handled Klim Kostin’s $2 million hit at the trade deadline, even though, only a few months earlier, they had swallowed a buyout for Kailer Yamamoto to acquire Kostin.
Even while it may come at a price, there is merit to admitting your mistakes and moving on, but Detroit is front office still caused those wounds on themselves. Furthermore, they do not represent all of the dangerous cap choices. Both Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot have large cap hits ($5.625 million for Copp and $4.75 for Chiarot) that are disproportionate to their output, despite the fact that both players contribute significantly to the club and are, in my opinion, not as overpriced as some fans seem to think. Additionally, each has several extra years of tenure.
Major deals are still in the works for Yzerman this summer as well. Despite having enough cap space to sign Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, Yzerman’s approach to negotiations has been plagued by a persistent question that keeps coming up: is he losing money by holding out for too long?
It makes sense to retain your ground in an effort to reduce the final figure. On the other hand, waiting gives fresh contract comparables time to become relevant. This was demonstrated in the Dylan Larkin discussions when Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal both agreed to long-term extensions that outlined the terms of Larkin’s deal. A year later, the $8.7 million AAV Larkin signed for already appears team-friendly, but it is difficult to ignore the question of whether Yzerman was lost to market movement. With Horvat receiving $8.5 million in particular, it appeared as though he had set a bar that Larkin would almost have to break.
And with Seider—who currently has a far stronger resume than Minnesota’s Brock Faber, who recently inked an eight-year, $8.5 million contract extension—something similar might be happening. Though bridging carries its own long-term concerns, Yzerman still has the option to sign Seider to a bridge deal and avoid using Faber as a comparison.
It is undoubtedly beneficial to take your time during negotiations and to obtain as much information as you can. However, during that period, players also receive fresh information, typically in the form of new contracts with which they can contrast their own stats. It is also reasonable to wonder if the Red Wings have lost out on some big deals by waiting on some of these, given the way the market has been expanding over the last few seasons.
Draft and develop
2023 rating: A-
2024 rating: B+
This category saw little movement, which is not surprising given that the Red Wings have a strong history of success in the first round under Yzerman, despite some disagreement over whether they take significant “home run swings” early in the draft. Raymond and Seider are youthful pillars. Edvinsson appears to be a top-four, possibly top-pair, defenceman who will live up to his draft status. It appears that Nate Danielson could be a top-six center. Even though Kasper is arguably better suited for the middle six, it is difficult to find more players in his class who would be selected ahead of him in a re-draft than the one or two that were selected after him.
With Mazur or Albert Johansson, the Red Wings may be able to produce an NHL regular who lasts past the opening round this season. It will take time to determine how big of an impact 2023 second-round pick Trey Augustine and 2024 second-round pick Max Plante will have, but both seem like legitimate NHL goalkeeper prospects.
Though Detroit undoubtedly still needs more star power, the Red Wings have not passed on any obvious studs on draft day as of yet. When considered collectively, a range between B-plus and A-minus seems appropriate.
Trading
2023 rating: A-
2024 rating: C+
Since Yzerman has always been a strong selling point due to his trade history, this was the highest drop of any category.
Since the 2023 confidence poll, there have actually only been four trades, but they are all related by one thing: cap dumps. In order to make room for the intriguing RHD prospect Andrew Gibson—for which they received back the second-round pick they traded with Walman—and forward prospect Jesse Kiiskinen, Detroit had to let go of Kostin, Fabbri, and Walman. Fans were particularly against the Walman arrangement. All of that aligns with the cap management grade, and it is difficult to avoid wondering if the category was inadvertently included twice in the larger trade assessments.
Fans have also witnessed transactions such as the trade for DeBrincat last summer, the acquisition of Jeff Petry at a lower cap charge, and the departure of defenseman Filip Hronek at the 2023 trade deadline. Given that Petry’s advancing years have occasionally been apparent, the Petry trade has not proven particularly popular, but a year later, the DeBrincat transaction appears to be a clear winner. Despite not quite reaching the 30-goal plateau in his debut season with the Red Wings, DeBrincat’s 67 points was good for third place on the club. His $7.875 salary hit is fair considering his output, and his influence is significantly more than the three players Detroit lost: Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, and the 25th selection.
Hronek is the intriguing one; after a successful season in Vancouver, he cashed in for a long-term contract worth $7.25 million AAV. After trading Hronek, the Red Wings undoubtedly have a hole in their second pair, but they did select Axel Sandin-Pellikka, another RHD prospect, with the pick obtained in exchange for Hronek. Although it will take time to see if he can match Hronek’s caliber, the Red Wings most likely could not afford Hronek’s new deal in any case.
Among others, the team was able to acquire Mikhail Sergachev, Erik Cernak, Ryan McDonagh, and J.T. Miller thanks to Yzerman’s transactions in Tampa Bay. And he could need more deals of similar nature to move Detroit forward as the Red Wings try to make the next move.
Free agency
2023 rating: B-
2024 rating: C
The public scored the front office a D-plus in this category, making it the lowest grade from the fans of any kind. The cap management part makes it clear why this is not too difficult to understand.
Though Chiarot consistently plays in the first four minutes and Copp plays a key role in matchups, the Holl deal stands out as a moderate-sized contract for a player who is not even in the starting lineup most nights. The fact that Detroit has not had many notable successes in free agency outside of one-year contracts, where it has a decent track record (including Gostisbehere, Kane, Christian Fischer, and Sprong last summer), may be a worse problem. To be honest, Detroit has not offered a UFA a contract longer than five years, but the intermediate three-to five-year agreements are still in place.
Compher, who committed to a five-year contract at a cost of $5.1 million last summer, is the one such deal that is arguably underestimated. Many wondered if Compher, who had just finished a career-high 52 points with the Avalanche the previous season, would be able to maintain that level of play in Detroit. But he mostly succeeded, tallying a career-high 19 goals and 48 points. Though those doubts are still raised by his difficult-to-maintain 17.6% shooting percentage, Compher’s four-year, $5.1 million contract appears relatively solid when you consider that Chandler Stephenson got a seven-year contract worth $6.25 million.
Since players are usually at the end of their prime and have the most leverage, building through free agency may be a risky proposition for any team. However, the Red Wings’ lack of success in free agency, particularly with regard to one-year contracts, raises serious concerns.
Vision
2023 rating: B
2024 rating: B-
This was a mostly unchanged category, presumably because eyesight is the hardest for fans to evaluate. This is especially true given how infrequently Yzerman appears in the media and how much he prefers to keep his intentions under wraps.
When he does talk about the squad, though, he has largely stuck to the fundamentals of his philosophy, which include focusing on team defense and being difficult to play against in favor of long-term winning rather than a rapid ascent to significance. That is all difficult to dispute. It is reasonable to presume that he too desires greater star power from the fans, but the practicalities of obtaining such a player are another story. He is making the most of what he has for now, and it does not appear that supporters have taken too much issue with his overarching goal.
Total
2023 rating: B+
2024 rating: B-
Notably, the lowest rating Red Wings supporters have given Yzerman in any category is a C. That implies that their perception of Detroit is front office is mediocre at best.
But a lot of fan confidence for a club that is rebuilding is derived from faith. It is difficult to dispute that some fans have lost faith in these grades, even though they have not abandoned the team just yet. There are several situations, primarily cap management and free agency, where there is a very good reason to lose trust. In other cases, like trading, it seems to be more motivated by feelings related to a few recent moves or maybe by the absence of a desired move that has not materialized. Additionally, there has not been any movement at all in several categories.
Though the Red Wings’ standings position has improved, there is a definite downward trend in the team’s level of trust in Yzerman and the front office after they lost ground in this survey for the second consecutive year.
It is enough to make you wonder what these grades would be like the next year in the event that the rankings trend reverses for the first time.
(Photo of Steve Yzerman: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
